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$13.50 KO AQo no likey 2xpot shove

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$13.50 KO AQo no likey 2xpot shove - Mon Mar 31, 2014, 06:52 PM
(#1)
Profess Awe's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,579
Greetings.
Thought I would share this one as it is a fun hand. Villain was 27/14/8 after 35 hands, but not much history and no pots vs hero. Normal knock out rules in this one, so his bounty is up for grabs on river, not that it is a factor (I think). Looked him up later and seems to be a winning grinder of $5-$22 MTTs.

I am interested in #4, but in case anyone wants to debate the other aspects your questions are:
1. Do we like a flat pre versus possible LAG?
2. Do we like a fold on the river?
3. Calling turn?
4. If we are willing to think about their "line" what hands do you think he may have? [I know what he had]


Last edited by Profess Awe; Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 06:56 PM..
 
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Mon Mar 31, 2014, 09:58 PM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,324
If villain was me, he has precisely because that's the only hand I VPIP with these days.
Based on this line, most villains will show up with the effective nuts pretty often I think, with the 5 combos of TT, QQ and KK showing up sometimes. He's unlikely to have a flush (apart from Js9s) since you have the nut blocker. For value hands, backdoor trips, and straights with AJo and J9, are about the worst he'll show down, unless he really thinks AQ is triple-worthy, or is consciously turning AT/QJ into a bluff.

Your hand would be a decent bluff-catcher if the river had been a blank, but I don't think villain takes this line with air all that often. In short, I'm calling turn but folding river.


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Mon Mar 31, 2014, 11:51 PM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,481
(Head Trainer)
Hi Profess,

Thanks for tweeting out the hand!

1. I prefer flatting AQ on this depth of money.

2. We are out of order here, so I'll skip to 3.

3. Yes I would call the turn.

4. He's really polarizing his range here to big hands and bluffs, and he does have a good spot to bluff since we have essentially capped our range to AQ/QJ in his mind. My inclination is to think that he expects us to fold our Qx to the overbet, so it feels like a bluff. The tricky part is, it's hard to see what hands he gets to the river with that would now have to bluff. The biggest candidate hands would be stuff like AsTx but we hold that ace. He could turn JJ into a bluff in this spot pretty effectively too imo. Other similar strength hands would fit too, like JT. But the villain would likely show both JJ and JT down at least some of the time... would he realize they have little showdown value here but are good bluff candidates? And the rest of his bluffs would have to be total air like A-rag and 77. As for value he can comfortably bet KJ+ imo since we have checked to him 3 times, but it seems too thin to try and extract value from our capped range by overbet shoving. The value bet should be like 750-999 imo since he's targeting Qx at the top of our range and stuff like JT at the bottom of it.

2. IDK, I'm inclined to hero this, since our range is capped and he is taking an action to apply max pressure to our capped range, and surely must expect a fold the majority of the time. I think it's a pretty thin call though, we are certainly going to get shown AJ/AK a fair bit I'd think. If we were last to act, and thus could have the spades, then his shove looks stronger to me because our range isn't capped at AQ. But checking to him, we look capped, so this action looks too out of whack vs. our weak range which makes me suspicious. I'd actually be more concerned about a 1K bet here tbh.

I don't fault a fold by any means, but in terms of hero call spots, this seems like a reasonable one to me.


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Tue Apr 01, 2014, 12:00 AM
(#4)
rivercity121's Avatar
Since: Oct 2012
Posts: 560
Ditto.
Could easily have spades or K. I like your fold.
How did it run out?
 
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Tue Apr 01, 2014, 09:50 AM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,481
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by rivercity121 View Post
Ditto.
Could easily have spades or K. I like your fold.
How did it run out?
Here's the thing. He can not easily have spades. The A, K, and T are accounted for, so what did he raise with preflop that would contain 2 spades? QsJs is the most likely combo, but it's only 1 combo. Js9s/Qs9s... ok. His spade combos are fairly limited. And all the big hands should be concerned we won't call an all in since our range is capped at a Q. How well he understands this is the key imo.

Thinking more about this hand, it's probably a fold, given the utility of a 58bb stack (if we fold) is pretty significant over that of a 15bb stack (if we call and are wrong). Of course a 122bb stack + a bounty is not insignificant if we call and are right. I'm not sure that the benefit of being right surpasses the disaster of being wrong on a call at this stage of the tourney. But if we think this is a bluff, which it sure feels like to me, then it seems like a risk with enough upside to take. I could be swayed by a good tEV argument though.


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Tue Apr 01, 2014, 11:40 AM
(#6)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
1. Yes.
3. I would call turn planning to fold most rivers. We could check-shove low spade rivers if we wanted to lose our tournament life in a fun way .
2. I fold all day every day here. I wouldn't think twice about it.
4. J9s+, so AJ, and full houses. Hard for him to have a flush but he could do it with the flushes too. Most likely is KQ ofc.
 
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Tue Apr 01, 2014, 01:10 PM
(#7)
Profess Awe's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,579
Thanks all for stopping by. I think line looks like a bluff and to me JJ and QT make sense for trying to get us off AQ, QJ. But I thought we have KcJc and KhJh sometimes and does a LAG assume we 3bet AQo pre, my guess is he does?

Anyhoo I am unwilling to give a lot of credit early on to anyone in this donkament, so I don’t think he is a wizard shipping some range of JJ/QT and boats that compensates for it looking bluffy. I think its far more likely that either:
a) he has near nuts and has had some success with overbet ships – there are plenty of villains in this tourney who snap off wider than you would think. He is not going to have that many hands on me either, so might assume I’m happy to look him up.
b) He c-bet flop cos that’s what he does, he c-bet turn cos he heard a K is good to rep, he shipped to rep a scary river because I checked thrice post-flop.

I am unwilling to assume it is b) more than 40% of the time, even though that feels like it would be the case. In this tourney I know it is fine to pass up hero call opportunities that risk decimating a decent stack because better spots are near certain to appear. Part of reason that I probably fold without second thought normally is like G suggests I am calling turn expecting to fold most rivers. I endorse the getting funky on a low spade river

If it was later in the tourney or had dynamic with villain, different story no doubt.

Last edited by Profess Awe; Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 01:13 PM..
 
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Tue Apr 01, 2014, 01:53 PM
(#8)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
very good post above PA
 
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Tue Apr 01, 2014, 02:06 PM
(#9)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,481
(Head Trainer)
I agree, good post!

I assumed you called since you said you knew what villain had. I guess he must have shown, never think about that possibility. Now I assume he was bluffing, as if he showed you a nutt'd hand it may not prompt the post?

Clearly I just assume too much. lol


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The Reveal - Tue Apr 01, 2014, 06:02 PM
(#10)
Profess Awe's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,579
Villain showed pocket 8s after I folded, presumably because I dipped a few seconds into my timebank and because s/he feels a need to look smart (while not realising it just confirmed their line made no sense and gave me an easy note to write with lots of useful information).

I guess it was a results oriented hand analysis. That said I still like the fold in situ and just wanted to check that I wasn't alone in thinking this was a fold despite the fact that it looked like what it was.

Take home messages: Make sure your bluffs look like they could be value bets. When bluffs work resist the temptation to show ... us villains who fold are often quite happy to lose a battle and use the info to win the later war.

Last edited by Profess Awe; Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 06:11 PM..
 
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Tue Apr 01, 2014, 06:08 PM
(#11)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
Great thread, would read again.
Although it doesn't matter now, I am folding as well.
 

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