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JJ set on flop, Good read on bet sizes?

JJ set on flop, Good read on bet sizes? - Mon Apr 07, 2014, 06:02 PM
F1sh4UrCh1p5's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 42
Hi, I would like analysis on my read of oppo's bet sizing.

I min raise pre with JJ utg, c/o calls, SB calls.
Effective pot is for c/o stack size.
Flop is Js 3s 8h, I bet half-pot and get re-raised.
Oppo is either building the pot with nut-flush draw
or has two pair or an under-set.
I just call for pot control vs f/d,
and to rep a possible flush draw myself.
I check the blank card on the turn, oppo bets pot.
I have now narrowed oppo's range to a protection bet
charging me for the flush draw, so I set oppo all-in.

Good read, or could oppo do this with the nut flush draw?

Mon Apr 07, 2014, 10:22 PM
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
Hi F1sh,

I think we are making a mistake not raising again on the flop. I agree with your read that it's likely a draw or underset (and yes he could do this with a big draw imo)... in both cases we want to get more money in now! We have draws in bad equity shape, and they may be comfortable 4b/stacking it all in not realizing we are this strong. Even against the monster draw Ts9s, we are a 60-40 favorite, so vs. all draws we are getting money in good here.

The other side of that coin is the undersets. They can't wait to 4b this flop to "protect their hand" and get value from you. A turn like the Qs may slow them down some though. You want all of his 1 out combos in the middle right away if possible. Do not think about controlling the pot! You have the nuts right now, you want to built the pot! Any time your worst case scenario sees you as a 60% favorite, and your best case a 95% favorite, build that pot as quickly as you can.

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