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NL5 Zoom 6max weird river spot

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NL5 Zoom 6max weird river spot - Tue Apr 08, 2014, 06:27 PM
(#1)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
Villian is 15/10 ag 5.0 over 210 hand sample. 24% vpip from utg

My thinking at the time was that he could play weaker qx this way, maybe jj/1010/ some air or gutshots as he is quite aggressive. I bet the river because I think I can get value from weaker hands. The check raise on the river baffled me and I really didn't know what to think of it, and folded. Thoughts on what the villain could take this line with? Should I be checking back the river against aggressive players in spots like this unless I'm prepared to bet call?

 
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Tue Apr 08, 2014, 06:47 PM
(#2)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Hand is well played. I think betting OTR is our best plan here to extract value from KQ, QJ, JJ, TT but I think I would size it a tad smaller (0.50-0.55). I'm not sure why he takes this river line. QQ and 88 make the most sense to me, nothing else.

Good fold OTR.
 
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Tue Apr 08, 2014, 10:09 PM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,487
(Head Trainer)
Hi Paddy,

We don't know if villain is ranging us, but when we call the flop on such a dry board it seems like we have a lot of Qx in our range, and maybe some floats.

On the turn what stands out to me his is bet sizing. It's small. The board is super dry so this strikes me as either a weakish hand following through to knock out floats, or a few monsters hoping to induce action.

Given this I am in favor of betting the river, but I think our sizing is too large. Since he would bet KQ/QJ again himself at least some of the time, our primary targets seem to be JJ-99, 3/4 pot is too large to achieve this goal... since our targets are weakish top pairs and worse, I think about .40c is more likely to draw the calls we want.

As played, easy fold, he probably rivered a set of 8's... regardless, our hand seems pretty face up as a Q on this run out, and 5NL guys aren't expecting us to fold a Q, so I doubt this is some nonsense bluff.


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Tue Apr 08, 2014, 10:13 PM
(#4)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
ty guys, makes perfect sense.
 
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Wed Apr 09, 2014, 12:03 AM
(#5)
Sle4zy_E's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 78
SilverStar
Hi guys,

Is there any merit to raising the flop bet?

I know this would probably have been my approach even with his stats.

There is a chance he folds.

If he calls, he is not likely to bet the turn (with or without the goods most times he leaves the action to you and you buy yourself a free card)

If I get 3 bet, its clear where I'm at.

It just seems to me like a raise on the flop could allow us to keep the pot smaller, which clearly we want to since we are unsure of where we are at.

Is my line of thinking off here? I'd love to hear you guys think and the why's it is or isn't correct.

thanks

Last edited by Sle4zy_E; Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 12:12 AM..
 
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Wed Apr 09, 2014, 12:49 AM
(#6)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Raising OTF won't accomplish anything. All his worse hands such as QJ, JJ, TT will fold. AA, KK, KQ, AQ and flopped sets will continue. We have position, let him fire away his money with all his weaker hands and bluffs. By calling we keep his range wide, by raising we tighten his range.
 
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Wed Apr 09, 2014, 08:24 AM
(#7)
Sle4zy_E's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 78
SilverStar
Hey Dirt,

Sometime ago, I read Easy Game and the reasons for betting were:

a) Value - getting villain to call with worse
b) Bluff - getting villain to fold better
c) Capitalizing on dead money/getting opponent to give up his equity

I understand what you are saying as far as the first two options go but does option C apply here?

I haven't fully grasped this concept.
 
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Wed Apr 09, 2014, 10:25 AM
(#8)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,487
(Head Trainer)
Option C does not really apply.

Think of the pot like a pie... everyone's equity is their slice of the pie. If we are a 52/48 favorite, well the villain has almost half that pie! Getting him to give that up and give us the whole thing is a good win for us! Especially if it's a fresh blueberry pie, but I digress.

If we are a 90/10 favorite, what he would be giving up folding isn't too big a deal, his slice of the pie is only a sliver. If the villain won't put any more money in the pot anyway unless they suck out, then betting to protect our 90% equity is a good idea. But if they will continue putting significant money in bad, we do better in the long run taking that 10% risk to extract the extra value they're giving us with these bad bets.

In this case we are in a way ahead/way behind scenario, meaning vs. villains range our equity is either very high, or very low, without much in the middle (like there would be on a wet board with draws possible). If it's our slice of the pie that's small, raising is a disaster, and if it's his slice that's small, as long as he's willing to keep putting money in we can allow him to do so.

Hope this helps with part C


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Wed Apr 09, 2014, 10:45 AM
(#9)
Sle4zy_E's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 78
SilverStar
Thanks Lang. that helped for sure.
 

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