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Is This Ship? 180 man

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Is This Ship? 180 man - Tue Apr 08, 2014, 09:29 PM
(#1)
Tonk Shuffle's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 618
I have some history with this villain, but this game doesn't match his usual stats. He is playing tighter, and limping less. He previously hasn't discriminated his pre-flop raises according to position. What I mean is that he will play AJo, KJs, or 88 the same way irrespective of position. He is capable of limping these hands too; they would be at the bottom of his open betting range. Over a larger sample he is VPIP 23 PR 6.

I think I am behind here, but does my tiny stack size make it mandatory to give him action? Was this a missed opportunity? The blind levels are 15 minutes.

 
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Tue Apr 08, 2014, 09:47 PM
(#2)
bungakat's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 41
Hey
If you give V8 ranges AJo+ATs+KQo+KJs+88+ then its a fold.

Cheers
bungakat
 
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Wed Apr 09, 2014, 12:10 PM
(#3)
ChewMe1's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 574
Hi Tonk Shuffle

I think we ought to get this in everytime regardless of player 8's range. This is very likely to be the best hand we are dealt until the blinds hit us and if we let the blinds hit us we're going to be left with less than 4 big blinds!

If we had say 1250 chips then we can just about afford to pass up on spots like these but with just 700 chips left this is a huge mistake imo.

Cheers, Chris.
 
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Wed Apr 09, 2014, 05:53 PM
(#4)
bungakat's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 41
Hey Chris

I disagree, this is a mistake to call if you think open ranges is AJo+ATs+KQo+KJs+88+ and never folding to shove.

Cheers
bungakat
 
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Thu Apr 10, 2014, 12:42 PM
(#5)
CrazYJohnnie's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 641
Quote:
Originally Posted by bungakat View Post
Hey Chris

I disagree, this is a mistake to call if you think open ranges is AJo+ATs+KQo+KJs+88+ and never folding to shove.

Cheers
bungakat
I see your point, but we only got less than 5BB, vs this range(i also added 66+ which i think is a reasonable open/calling range for vill to have) then we get 37% equity which is not bad with almost no chips. With 88+ it is 35% which is not that bad imo.
 
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Thu Apr 10, 2014, 02:38 PM
(#6)
dysiclawl's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 30
vs 77+,ATs+,KJs+,AJo+ we have 39.07equity

we're putting in 710 into a total pot of 1645

710/1645 = 43.1% pot odds so we're losing chips if we ship it here

even if we add 55,66 and some more Ax combos the shove will be break even at best and with 4 stacks left to act it'll be a losing play
 
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Fri Apr 11, 2014, 07:24 AM
(#7)
AfredR's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 16
Hey guys! Don't post on here very often but read this hand while eating and waiting to start my grind. This is one of those hands that's really great to look at in terms of looking deeper into the game. Please feel free to correct anything I say, as my "math wizardry" can sometimes not be the greatest.

Alright, so looking at dysiclawl and bungakat's ranges we have about 39% equity. This means (again correct me) that on average we will make $641 with this play. We're starting with $710, so this is a fold, right?

Well, if we look at the difference between $641 and $710 we got $69...this is less than 1 big blind. And 39% of the time we're going to win $1645, giving us over 10 big blinds (we currently have less than 5), which with good push/fold play is more than managable. Also, if it's folded to me I'm shoving waaaaaay lighter than KQs, and most of the time when called be a lot worse off equity wise than 39%. And in about 4 turns we're losing about 1/3 of our stack.

And not even taking ANY of that into acoount:
We're really really, REALLY short. (did I mention we're short?)
We got two suited, connected face cards.

Time to gamboooooooooool!!!!!!!!!!

Alfred
 
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Fri Apr 11, 2014, 07:07 PM
(#8)
Tonk Shuffle's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 618
Thank you everyone for the input. My stack had no fold equity, and dysiclawl has a good, but counterintuitive point about the 4 stacks left to act. This is something I never considered. I now believe that folding like I did was mistake. If you factor in that the big blind or another stack may come along for the ride the pot could be 2130 to 2330 chips, or more with multiple callers. I cannot remember what the other players tendencies were anymore, and admittedly I would not know how to factor them into an ICM calculator. If another player had joined the pot with the top 5% of his range, then my equity goes down to about 25%. But if his range is randomized, then my equity is still as high as 33% according to the PSO odds calculator.

Chris makes a meta game point about the fact that I cannot afford to sit back and wait to be hit over the head by the deck. What is more likely is that I will be compelled to shove even looser with less chips - meaning I will also have to shove more frequently with my shorter stack.

This hand was from a $1 180 entry tournament, where I am trying to strike a balance between playing too nitty and chip acquisition. The pay structure of these games is top heavy.
 
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Fri Apr 11, 2014, 08:19 PM
(#9)
bungakat's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 41
My point was, if youre sure V8 ranges is AJo+ATs+KQo+KJs+88+, then its -EV to get it in here. Also you get 4 hands to wait to shove in spot where you going to have little fold equity, sure its unlikely you will get hand as strong as KQs, but it dosent matter, having fold equity will give you chance of getting blinds with no action at all. But overally i think this is might be a good spot where taking -EV play in consideration, this is because i actually think you cant be so sure V8 ranges is going to be this tight at all so there is good chance V8 open wider and making this shove a close to +EV. But taking in consideration taking a -EV play in these kind of spots you need to consider few things.
1. Your image in table - if you have played very tight or loose (if you been really tight you will get more fold equity shoving in future if loose, then you will be called more often)
2. Players in table - Who is players right to you? Tight? Loose? If they are tight then you have more fold equity and because of fold equity its most likely better to not take -EV play and get it in wider in few hands. If players right to you is good regular players who will most likely call you close to what they have to call you, then its obviously better to take -EV play and if lose you can open a new SNG since reg vs reg you problably aint going to have a big edge or win much anyways.
So its all about how you been at table, how people see you and how you see them to make this play. Also i think people aint taking their images at table and players in table in consideration that often as they should when having a marginal spot like this. That said i think this spot dosent really matter much if you get it in or fold, its all about how you see table and whats your image and i would make this decision based on that.
 
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Fri Apr 11, 2014, 09:23 PM
(#10)
lycowolf's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 20
I'm sorry, bungakat, but you just don't get the point. This is not about a -EV hand or his range or about how anyone sees you. The villain is never folding and almost always has a better hand. This is a shove because a 35% hand is about the best you are ever getting with a tiny stack. 'Sometimes you have to get it in bad'-- 'The Man' from The Cincinnati Kid. You just have to go with it, you have protection from the open raiser, ie the villains after you
are only going to put chips in with premium hands after you push. Even if I saw his hand and it was AJ, JJ, TT etc. I would shove, you need the double up to survive. The comments from bungakat are true when you have a good
sized stack, but you don't and so they do not apply. The only thing that is important is that you need to get your stack in very, very, very soon. This may be your only chance to get it in against one player. Because of your stack size, if you open shove later, you will be usually be called and you could be against two or three players. Here it is going to be just one, most of the time. Don't wait for Aces, you are too short.

Getting it in behind with a short stack, where you are going to lose 65% of the time, is good enough. Not doing so is even worse -EV.
 
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Sat Apr 12, 2014, 02:01 AM
(#11)
AfredR's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 16
What's the quote "If you don't shove it in bad enough, you're doing it wrong"?
 
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Sat Apr 12, 2014, 04:59 AM
(#12)
CrazYJohnnie's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 641
Quote:
Originally Posted by AfredR View Post
What's the quote "If you don't shove it in bad enough, you're doing it wrong"?
If you are not getting it in bad, you are not getting it in enough, i think it was from Shaun Deeb.
http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/show...fpart=all&vc=1

Mods i know i can post 2+2 links, so this means i can post archives also? Correct me if i am wrong and i will try to find unarchived version of this.
 

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