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25NL 6max - Open btn 99 - 3bet have 20:1 odds implied covered to set mine! Then...

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25NL 6max - Open btn 99 - 3bet have 20:1 odds implied covered to set mine! Then... - Wed Apr 09, 2014, 12:01 AM
(#1)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
My tweet / boom link note to review this hand was:

"Open btn 99 - 3bet have 20:1 odds implied covered to set mine! Then it gets worse"

When feeling "it gets worse" is because of the pre flop action.

I call a 3bet in position with $1.25 x 20 behind covered to set mine. Perhaps play 99 as an over pair on the board!

Then yikes I hit second set on a 3 diamond flop with 2 black 99s.

This is a little higher stakes than I normally play but I went with it on the flop. Question is, "Standard get it in with no reads or with reads"?

The 3bet range can have AKdd, TT, AXd, KXd etc...

OK I'm a happy cat "results orientated" but is this bad?



PS. I guessed the nut Ace was there and feeling sick on a bad flip.

Last edited by ForrestFive; Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 12:17 AM.. Reason: bad flip
 
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Wed Apr 09, 2014, 12:45 AM
(#2)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Hand is well played. Yes get this in OTF with less than 100bb to play out.
 
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Wed Apr 09, 2014, 01:12 AM
(#3)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Quote:
Originally Posted by dirt eh View Post
Hand is well played. Yes get this in OTF with less than 100bb to play out.
Thanks for your reply,

I think I understand what you are saying "play out" price? If I call flop bet $3 into $3.75 then I'm in big trouble on the turn card NOW with less than 100bb behind - or to play out/with committed.
 
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Wed Apr 09, 2014, 01:24 AM
(#4)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
There are only 2 hands that you're basically DEAD against. 87s and a set of Ts. If we were 200 or 300bb deep then there could be an argument for not getting the money in.

As played the villain might shut down OTT if a bad card such as an 8 or 7 come. With a set here we need the money to get in the middle because they should be stacking off with AA, KK, Ax of diamonds or even T8 with the 8 of diamonds.
 
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Wed Apr 09, 2014, 03:05 AM
(#5)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Is it a good play to get the money in with the Ax of diamonds? I thought that was a play to be made vs very aggro players not a default line if you know what i mean.
 
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Wed Apr 09, 2014, 03:25 AM
(#6)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Quote:
Originally Posted by mike2198 View Post
Is it a good play to get the money in with the Ax of diamonds? I thought that was a play to be made vs very aggro players not a default line if you know what i mean.
Mike, no this is not a good play to get it in with Ax of diamonds. I would get it in with AdTx, AdAx and sometimes KdKx.
 
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Wed Apr 09, 2014, 05:17 AM
(#7)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Looks good.

JdQx-AdAx are stacking off if we raise now. We don't want to risk an action killing turn card.
 
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Wed Apr 09, 2014, 05:47 AM
(#8)
PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
Most of the important stuff has already been posted.

Calling preflop IP getting a decent price is a good play as is raising the flop. You can get action from all overpairs and overcard diamonds. Even against made flushes you have enough outs so overall you should be a decent favorite over all hands that shove here.

If you feel like villain may be the type to barrel and bluff a lot you might want to choose a more passive line.


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Wed Apr 09, 2014, 10:47 AM
(#9)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by ForrestFive View Post
PS. I guessed the nut Ace was there and feeling sick on a bad flip.
Open up an equity calculator, put in your set vs. AdXo, and explain how that would be a "bad flip".


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Wed Apr 09, 2014, 09:38 PM
(#10)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Thanks guys for the replies.

My pokerstove stopped working and never got to grips with equities anyway. Though I do use the PSO odds and outs chart. Over time I am remembering the numbers without looking.

My bad on suggesting a "bad flip". A flip is a flip even odds 1 : 1 there is no good flip about gambling. A good decision not to gamble is my preferred nitty line.

I took the villain's point of view. With all the monies in OTF with 2 cards to come on a 'Flush Draw + 2 overs' here is a flip = evens for them. And any diamond crushes me on a bare flush draw where their odds are 2 : 1.

So I need to be a bit more confident.

Last edited by ForrestFive; Wed Apr 09, 2014 at 09:42 PM..
 
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Wed Apr 09, 2014, 09:57 PM
(#11)
craig121212's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 246
With an AdXo you are almost always a 2:1 equity favorite here.

The best hand (that isn't beating you already). Is Ad8o, which has 35% equity in the pot. Unless there is a made flush or a higher set, you are a huge favourite in this hand.
 

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