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NL50 FR: AKo OOP, missed flop

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NL50 FR: AKo OOP, missed flop - Wed Apr 09, 2014, 02:44 PM
(#1)
Flipp'n'Flop's Avatar
Since: Nov 2013
Posts: 12
Villain playing 18/8 after 41 hands. I have 2 notes on Villain – ‘Called 2bet from blinds with ATo. Limp and called a raise T9s.' Should I have barrelled the turn?

 
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Wed Apr 09, 2014, 02:49 PM
(#2)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
terrible turn card. He's never folding any pair in this spot so c/fold is the best line imo.
 
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Wed Apr 09, 2014, 02:53 PM
(#3)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
NO. barreling the turn would not be good because the 3 is a horrible card to barrel! I think I would only barrel A, K, Q OTT.

Here's what I would do in this hand. I would check/fold this flop. We have overcard equity and that's it! If we make it to the turn, we could go for a delayed cbet or just check it again.

As played... X/F
 
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Wed Apr 09, 2014, 02:59 PM
(#4)
Flipp'n'Flop's Avatar
Since: Nov 2013
Posts: 12
I agree, I think the Villains range is quite wide as he is fishy to limp and cold call OOP with the initial agressor yet to act. Preflop I put him on any pocket pair, AJo+ preflop. I think he will call my cbet with most of his range on the flop, was I correct to cbet as by my reasoning I don't have much fold equity?
 
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Wed Apr 09, 2014, 11:17 PM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Hi Flipp,

I actually think with the line we took in this hand, we have a pretty credible shove on the turn with $33 behind and $38 in the pot. If we actually held QQ+ this is probably exactly what we'd do on this turn card.

There's a couple reasons why I think a shove is better than giving up here. Firstly, I don't agree that the villain is not folding any pair. Maybe a loose fish in 2nl, but a passive 50nl guy isn't necessarily calling off with 55 or A8 here. Sometimes yes, but to suggest we have no fold equity vs. a pair I just can't agree with. I certainly agree this isn't a turn card that's scary to a pair, but our action sequence sure should be scary, especially since we would be either betting $15-$18 or simply shoving this turn card like all the time with our premium pairs. Second, we know this guy limp-calls loose, as in a mere 41 hands we've seen him do it and show down T9s already. So that means that not only does he have some weaker pairs in his range here, he's also got a lot of draws, and we don't block any of the draws. Those are great for us, as we are beating all of them with 1 card to come.

If we shove this turn, I could see this guy giving up 55, but calling off with AdTd or JcTc.

I don't fancy putting in 36% of my stack then folding what is still the best hand a fair bit, and since a turn shove is credible and likely quite profitable, it's a good spot to add some balance to our QQ+ imo.


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Thu Apr 10, 2014, 12:04 AM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
As an aside, I'm not suggesting we should automatically move in with all combos of AK here on the turn, that may be too much. For combos I would remove from that range and give up, first and foremost would be the 6 offsuit combos with a diamond, AdKx and AxKd, because those block a portion of the draws villain can have... when I want him to have draws, I don't want to shove hands that block those draws.

I just think that if we would bet 99/88, QQ+ for value here we should have some bluffs too, and AdKd is like the only draw we probably have in our range after making a huge preflop 3b OOP, having only 1 bluff (semi-bluff) combo isn't enough. If we take out all AdKx and AxKd combos, and bluff the rest, that's a pretty good ratio on a turn shove imo. 24 value combos and 11 bluffs/semi-bluffs that don't block the draws in his range (except when we're drawing to the nut flush ourselves obv) and have 6 outs to suck out the times we're running into JJ/QQ.


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Thu Apr 10, 2014, 08:17 AM
(#7)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
Great stuff Dave, something to think about for the higher stakes!
 
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Thu Apr 10, 2014, 06:23 PM
(#8)
Flipp'n'Flop's Avatar
Since: Nov 2013
Posts: 12
Thanks for the analysis guys, it was really useful. I think I need to update the processor in my head to think of all these things before the timer runs out!
 

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