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50nl - River lead w/ 2p

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50nl - River lead w/ 2p - Thu Apr 10, 2014, 10:50 PM
(#1)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Stats

Player2 ( $52.36 USD ) - VPIP: 25, PFR: 15, BTN STL: 50, Flop cbet: 83, Turn cbet: 100, River cbet: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.9, Hands: 95



I think pre, flop and turn are very standard.

River is interesting. I don't think he'll go for 3 streets with toppair+, but he's likely to call a donk bet given both flush draws missed.

I can also pretty easily bet/fold if he jams over my bet, whilst preventing a check back.

I normally hate leading but given his AF is so low, is this the right play?
 
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Thu Apr 10, 2014, 11:46 PM
(#2)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
I think it's ok... This looks like a busted draw but T8 of spades got there, so you could be representing that. The problem is that I think this villain could have T8 of spades, AA, KK, 99. Their AF is so low and they've bet out BIG twice. They have something that they like. I also find villains with a low AF bet their draws harder than say a pair of ACES.

I think I would actually go for a X/C OTR.

FWIW, I think the call OTT is really close and it might even be a fold tbh. I think it would be a call IP. Fold OOP.

Just my opinion! Thanks!
 
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Fri Apr 11, 2014, 04:48 AM
(#3)
PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
Given the sample is so small I would not read anything into the missing river aggression so far. Villain opened OTB and can potentially barrel this board with a lot of draws or picked up draws. You could try and represent a busted draw yourself with your river lead but I somehow doubt it may be better than checking. I would expect most 50nl players to valuebet this river with most of the hands they would call plus bluff some busted draws as well so I'd check/call river. It's also nice to strengthen your check/calling range here as you frequently get to this river with only 1 pair after check/calling twice.


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