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5nl FR Zoom - 99 will I spew chips?

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5nl FR Zoom - 99 will I spew chips? - Fri Apr 11, 2014, 09:30 AM
(#1)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
Hi guys,

Could you please analysis my hand below.



Villain was in fact an unknown, since I play quite often I treated him as a recreational (if that is the right word) type player, who doesn't top up his stack.

Preflop

Called with pocket 99s for set mining.


Flop

Checked as is standard - I think. It checks around


Turn

I check in this spot because it is multiway and to allow a villain bet with worse. I don't think if I bet that I would be called by worse. Villain IP bets, other villain folds (no hand), and I call believing that he could be doing this as a bluff trying to take down the pot.

River

Villain on the river bets slightly over pot, now this is where I made a decision to call, because, and I don't know if it is the majority of the case, but I believe villains bet this big when they haven't got a hand and want to see a fold.


Here are my questions?

Will I spew money playing like this in the long run?

Do you think, in your experience, that the river bet is a betting tell more towards bluffing or monsters and nothing in between?

I don't really know to be honest. Maybe it is the case for recreational players.


Cheers,

Matt

Last edited by pullin1988; Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 10:14 AM..
 
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Fri Apr 11, 2014, 12:52 PM
(#2)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hey Matt

I think the problem with the river decision is because we don't have information on our villain and we leave ourselves guessing most of the time. I think we can actually bet the turn and expect to get called by worse 8x, sometimes gutshots, but more importantly we fold from hands that have over cards this is significant here because we are up against two opponents and also we get to fold hands that can bluff us OTR to exactly avoid the spot we were put in OTR.

I can't exactly say about their bet sizing because we really have no information on history - I find it much easier and perhaps profitable to play straight forward against unknowns. They could bet small with A2 OTT and bet big OTR when they make trips. I don't know. But I think it also makes sense for them to bet twice after they bet the turn because it's less likely for us to check Qx twice so I actually don't mind their play with their bluff.
 
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Fri Apr 11, 2014, 02:45 PM
(#3)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,316
Quote:
Originally Posted by pullin1988 View Post
I check in this spot because it is multiway and to allow a villain bet with worse. I don't think if I bet that I would be called by worse.
Bet to pick up the dead money and deny villain a chance to suck out for free imo.
Bluff-catching OOP can be a +EV strategy, but check-guessing on the river always makes me feel a bit queasy. I'd rather take control of the hand and win the pot right there on the turn. With TT+ or Qx I might check, but nines are more vulnerable (about half the deck is bad for you on the river, as a flush draw is out there too) so I'd bet them.


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Fri Apr 11, 2014, 03:26 PM
(#4)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
Arty,

Just a quick question.

Myself on the flop if I am not sure of my equity by having a weakish queen (top pair marginal kicker) then I think it is best to check the flop allowing some else to bet on a later street for pot control and allowing a villain to bet with worse, so we can call with Qx. I can some of villains money this way by letting them bet with worse, say on the turn, and I call (on a rainbow board) extracting at least a bet out of them, instead of betting flop where I don't think I can be called by worse and take it down on the flop.


As an example,


I have QT and I was the preflop raiser, and get called by a loose villain

board comes Q92 (rainbow). Here I would check (IP? or OOP?) for pot control and as I don't think I could be called by worse if I bet. The turn comes 8, and now villain leads with a hand that could be beating me, but also by bluffs (as villains does not think I have a hand - he might think that I would have bet a queen on the flop), or with a hand that I beat, so I will call. Then on the river villain will either X or b. OOP I can bet for thin value and fold to a raise, and IP I can X or bet or call for thin value IP provided that the river is a blank card. Does that line above seem good, or should I be doing it differently.




I'm thinking along these lines which is why i checked the turn. So what do you do when villain calls your bet on the turn (he might be doing the line above), X/F river?

I'm not sure.



I just don't want that to happen to me.

Cheers,

Matt

Last edited by pullin1988; Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 03:48 PM..
 
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Sat Apr 12, 2014, 08:09 AM
(#5)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,316
With something like QT, I don't mind bluff-catching all three streets. You could bet it on the turn if the flop is checked around, especially when the board gets wetter, but your play really depends on the likelihood of a villain bluffing. If he's a station, then bet-fold. If he's aggro, then check-call and get your value by bluff-catching.
If you bet the turn, then blockbet-folding river is probably the best line, unless you are fairly certain villain will stab at the pot with air.


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