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5NL 6max zoom – River decision with trips

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5NL 6max zoom – River decision with trips - Fri Apr 11, 2014, 02:10 PM
(#1)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
Question 1: Should I fold OTR
Question 2: Should I call AJ OTR?

MP: (9) 11/11/20
CO: (23) 9/5/0

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Button ($3.22)
SB ($16.49)
Hero (BB) ($5.93)
UTG ($7.58)
MP ($4.14)
CO ($11.18)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, J
1 fold, MP raises to $0.15, CO calls $0.15, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.47) J, 4, 2 (3 players)
Hero checks, MP checks, CO checks

Turn: ($0.47) J (3 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $0.25, CO raises to $0.55, Hero calls $0.55, 1 fold

River: ($1.82) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $2.05
 
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Fri Apr 11, 2014, 02:29 PM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
Small sample-size notwitchstanding, a 9/5 guy that flatted in the CO is gonna have a set/boat here pretty often. I doubt he calls pre with AJ unless suited, and that beats you anyway. When auto-piloting and not checking HUD pop-ups, I'd snap call the river with KJ/AJ, but with a vague read like this, I think it's a puke-fold. At worst, I think he's showing up with , but there's 6 combos of 44 and 22 out there too.


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Fri Apr 11, 2014, 03:21 PM
(#3)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
Yeah Arty, I agree, not sure though if it’s puke-fold or just standard fold.

So, if we open a little bit his range and give him AJ and KJ OTR because I played so passively:
AJ(4), KJ(2),4(6),2(6)

If I would have AJ, let say he would bet KJ -> he would have AJ(2), KJ(4),4(6),2(6) because you need to give 10% air every time, lets give him QJ(2) -> making it (6) to win and (12) to lose =)

Even with AJ we are underdogs, unfortunately I don’t know how to calculate EV

Last edited by braveslice; Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 04:51 PM..
 
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Sat Apr 12, 2014, 07:44 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
Hey Brave,

I doubt this raise turn/river overbet is too many worse hands, 44/22 a lot tbh. I wouldn't pay much attention to the stats on this sample, but I think the line looks super strong, and for the times he may be overplaying QJ there's more he's got AJ/22/44


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Sun Apr 13, 2014, 04:14 AM
(#5)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
Roger, ty!
 

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