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NL5 Zoom 6Max...is villains range here specifically AA??

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NL5 Zoom 6Max...is villains range here specifically AA?? - Sat Apr 12, 2014, 11:02 AM
(#1)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
Villain is 30/15 agg 3.3 over 47 hands. 3bet 11.8%, once previously from the s.b. He is 1 tabling. He has cbet 100% in 3 hand sample.



The utg limper is 67/0 over a small hand sample w/fold to cbet 100% so I'm trying to isolate and take the pot down initially.

Now, I'm not reading the min raise as strong pre flop. However, when an aggro player decides to check min-raise that flop, I'm kind of hating life. Is this a spot where you can actually get away from a set?

 
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Sat Apr 12, 2014, 11:48 AM
(#2)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
So he cant ever be doing that with AK?
 
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Sat Apr 12, 2014, 11:58 AM
(#3)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
Seems a strange line to take with AK, min raise pre, and min raise on a board where although it's quite dry, we're multiway and there is a flush draw out there.
 
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Sat Apr 12, 2014, 12:05 PM
(#4)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
I would give him much wider range. Min bets can also mean weakness, so he could do that even with JJ, thinking because you were the last person to play OTF you might be bluffing – as that is what he would personally do.
 
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Sat Apr 12, 2014, 12:27 PM
(#5)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
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Well, it is hard to put a villain like that on exactly AA. Min 3-betting then min-check-raising flop does look kind of like AA here though... Not really any draws except spade flush draw, but does villain really check-raise KQs? I doubt it. I think AK could be played like this considering the flop texture.

You need to be really confident villain has exactly AA if you are going to fold here.

Last edited by RockerguyAA; Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 12:32 PM.. Reason: some maths was wrong lol
 
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Sat Apr 12, 2014, 12:32 PM
(#6)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
Ty rocker that is pretty much exactly the info I was looking for. I've never seen someone take this line with AK before, I'll have to assume it's in villains range in these spots. There's a lot more combos of AK for sure, was just one of those sessions where I was losing to better sets and got that sinking feeling again you know?



Basically what we're saying here is that I am making an incorrect fold unless I have a note/read that the villain plays sets/AA like this?

Last edited by Paddy Gar; Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 12:36 PM..
 
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Sat Apr 12, 2014, 12:36 PM
(#7)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
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Posts: 1,089
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Rec players min-raising should be setting off some red flags that is a good thing.

I'm trying to figure out how often villain needs to show up with AK here to make shoving profitable. I suck at the math though...
 
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Sat Apr 12, 2014, 12:40 PM
(#8)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
Here's another thought: Villain doesn't cbet. Why wouldn't he multiway? Either because he's completely air balling or he's got the board crushed and isn't worried about protection. Surely w/AK he should be protecting his hand here, aces too but you know how recs can be.

Also like I said in original post, despite short sample he has cbet 3/3 times, and goes from that to a check min raise.
 
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Sat Apr 12, 2014, 12:53 PM
(#9)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
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Posts: 1,089
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OK trying this again:

Your hand vs a range of exactly AA is 9%.
Your hand vs a range of AA, AKs, AKo is 79.38%

You need to be good 17.65% to call flop.
.75
------- = 17.65%
3.5+.75

You need to be good 52.4% to shove flop. Assuming zero fold equity here so this relates purely to your hand equity.
3.85
-------- = 52.4%
3.5+3.85

There are 3 combos of AA, 12 of AK. Clearly you are very good against this range. You are still good even if we were to arbitrarily assign a range of AA 1/3 of the time and AA,AKs,AKo 2/3 of the time giving you 55.92% equity. If villain has only AA 2/3 of the time and AA,AKs,AKo 1/3 of the time you are now bad with 32.46% equity. Which is why in my original post I said you need to be really sure villain has only AA in his range.

I hope the math is right this time, if not I give up
 
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Sat Apr 12, 2014, 12:55 PM
(#10)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
ty so much for the input Rocker.
 
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Sat Apr 12, 2014, 01:00 PM
(#11)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
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Posts: 1,089
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I'm not sure how heavily I would weight those stats in my decision making due to the small sample, but it probably would make me lean towards villain having AA a bit more than I would have otherwise. Even then I'm not really sure I can put villain on exactly AA and fold confidently with the given info.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paddy Gar View Post
Basically what we're saying here is that I am making an incorrect fold unless I have a note/read that the villain plays sets/AA like this?
Yes. It is hard to narrow down this villains range so much without some specific reads. That is my take on the situation anyways.

Last edited by RockerguyAA; Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 01:08 PM..
 
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Sat Apr 12, 2014, 01:03 PM
(#12)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
He probably thinks with AK he has the board crushed vs your flatting range so no need to bet if your going to bet with stuff like KQss anyway, i would just bet my AK because i dont want to x/r or x/c the flop because if i x/c the flop i would want to lead the turn and x/r don't accomplish anything unless you have some weaker Ax your going to stack off with so all his x/r does is fold out all your pairs under the A.

I dont know whats the best play for AA is but i see good players checking top set all the time but then they x/c flop and turn and x/ jam the river which seems like a play that wont work alot because the villain is going to check back the turn and or the river alot.

His play does look suspicious il agree with that but i dont think you can take AK out of his range.
 
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Sat Apr 12, 2014, 01:03 PM
(#13)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
Yeah it's more a case of say we do stack off and he shows up with aa....we can confidently fold versus said villain in the future.

In a vacuum, I guess I should be thinking of what hands he can do this with, what's our equity versus said range. Then figure out if we can profitably shove the flop.
 
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Sat Apr 12, 2014, 01:05 PM
(#14)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Quote:
Originally Posted by RockerguyAA View Post
OK trying this again:

Your hand vs a range of exactly AA is 9%.
Your hand vs a range of AA, AKs, AKo is 79.38%

You need to be good 17.65% to call flop.
.75
------- = 17.65%
3.5+.75

You need to be good 52.4% to shove flop. Assuming zero fold equity here so this relates purely to your hand equity.
3.85
-------- = 52.4%
3.5+3.85

There are 3 combos of AA, 12 of AK. Clearly you are very good against this range. You are still good even if we were to arbitrarily assign a range of AA 1/3 of the time and AA,AKs,AKo 2/3 of the time giving you 55.92% equity. If villain has only AA 2/3 of the time and AA,AKs,AKo 1/3 of the time you are now bad with 32.46% equity. Which is why in my original post I said you need to be really sure villain has only AA in his range.

I hope the math is right this time, if not I give up
How did you do the math when you are weighting his range to either AA or AK?
 
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Sat Apr 12, 2014, 01:09 PM
(#15)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
Mike if someone plays aces like that against you it can make folding a lot easier imo. Especially if they cbet most boards (which they should), checking just raises suspicion. It would basically be saying their hand is marginal and has showdown value, or is a monster. Once they raise you on a street you have a super easy decision.

Checking with monsters is just bad play unless you know the villain is super aggro.
 
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Sat Apr 12, 2014, 01:12 PM
(#16)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike2198 View Post
How did you do the math when you are weighting his range to either AA or AK?
I just arbitrarily pick the ratios of the two hand ranges, then added their equities and took the average. For ex: (79.38+79.38+9)/3. Maybe that is not correct? I was trying to see how our equity changed the more and more likely villain has only AA. Maybe it would have been easier to just remove some AK combos and look at just one hand range?

Last edited by RockerguyAA; Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 01:14 PM..
 
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Sat Apr 12, 2014, 02:01 PM
(#17)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
I dont know i gave him 3 combos of AK and 3 combos of AA and we have 52% equity, i spose it dont really matter because we will never know how many combos of AK he has unless he only 3bet AKs there which still gives him 3 combos any way.

I think im just getting the monies in un till he shows me AA or i see him flat AK in that seat vs EP.
 
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Sat Apr 12, 2014, 02:07 PM
(#18)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
Don't forget the 3 combos of A8s too. I often 3-bet that in the SB.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Sat Apr 12, 2014, 04:37 PM
(#19)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
Don't forget the 3 combos of A8s too. I often 3-bet that in the SB.
Would your bet sizing also be a min-raise?

Do we have any reason to believe villain has light 3-bets in his range?
 
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Sat Apr 12, 2014, 05:27 PM
(#20)
lycowolf's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 20
You guys are way over thinking this. Just get it in. Min raises can mean just about anything, I've seen J6o type of hands many, many times. The pot is too big for him to easily get away from a flush draw or AK AQ AJ A8 . All are possible, so just shove. Seriously, of the players in my player pool that I have over a thousand hands tracked, there is one and only one super nit that I am ever folding too. In 10k hands, He has never in his life raised anything pre except AA and KK, so yeah, I have folded bottom sets to him several times. But against others, I get it in. You usually have the best hand, and there are many worse hands he can call off with. The absolutely best time to have bottom set is on an A high fairly dry board that was 3bet preflop. If he has AK AQ , he may talk himself into thinking you have a flush draw, If he has a flush draw, he may think he has enough equity to call, so get it in.
 

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