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2NL FR, QTs c/o, Q3Q flop, aggressive OTB Villain

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2NL FR, QTs c/o, Q3Q flop, aggressive OTB Villain - Mon Apr 14, 2014, 10:46 AM
(#1)
ApexShark's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 36
ChromeStar
Hi guys,

Got a quick question about folding on the river, if not before.

__________________________

Preface


Dealt QTs at the c/o. I've been trying to tighten up and play in LP but felt this was strong enough with only one limper before me, who I ignored rather than raising to 3BB + 1BB.

Villain is a TAG. He would've shoved AA, KK, QQ, JJ and possibly TT. So I figure he has two picture cards, with AQ being the highest of his range and JT the lowest.

Good flop for me so I bet for value, I'm only scared of a heart coming down. And I've learned from previous hand analysis to always bet my sets on the flop to build a pot.

Villain is strong in reply which I would expect for his range... until the river!




________________________

Specific Questions


1) Flop has 2 hearts and I could get stung by 3 cards A, K or J. So assuming he has one of these and hearts at best, odds of improving before the turn is 22% and river 44% (9 flush outs, 2 extra over card outs). I was offering 25% by only betting 1/2 the pot.

2) Should I have folded to the re-raise on the turn? In hindsight, this was probably the sign that he had the Qx... and even QJo (bottom of his range) was ahead here.

3) If not, I should definitely have folded the river though? As I'm behind AQ, KQ, TQ?
________________________

As always, any help is much appreciated!

Thanks,

Apex
 
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Mon Apr 14, 2014, 12:38 PM
(#2)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi Apex,

Good reasons for betting preflop and flop; though I would bet slightly bigger
When villain calls us OTF they could have a PP, Qx, or FD; I doubt they would raise the turn with a bluff here or value raise worse. There's basically no worse Qx in their range since you said he is a TAG. I think most Qx would either raise flop or call down. Well they could raise AQ and 33 ofcourse. The difficult part is that we are OOP and by calling turn we are basically hoping the river to go check/check? If we are calling turn we have to decide to call river as well, though I think this is not a great spot for it. I think we can x/c turn (we get to see showdown cheaper) and bet river if they check back to get called by a worse PP (TT/99/88) and they would only improve to a flush 18% of the time. We also allow them to call rivers if they improve to one pair with a hand like AhJh.
 
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Mon Apr 14, 2014, 12:54 PM
(#3)
ApexShark's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 36
ChromeStar
Hi George,

Thanks for your help again... yes I did think at the turn I should fold as I would have to fold at the river, so I was hoping for check/check now I think about it.

Next time I will think whether I'm going to call the river at the turn!

Thanks,

Apex
 

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