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Pushed of a set of 7s

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Pushed of a set of 7s - Mon Apr 14, 2014, 01:11 PM
(#1)
Michae2005's Avatar
Since: Sep 2013
Posts: 122
Hi all

I have been struggling over this hand. At the time the fold felt like the right thing to do the V had been very passive and as soon as the strait and the flush completed he bet in to me.

His stats after 33 hands are as follows
81/16/12.5 AF2.1
However his AF was 0.5 when the hand was played about 10 hands before.



Thanks for the help
 
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Mon Apr 14, 2014, 02:04 PM
(#2)
rkleefstra's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,328
I would never fold OTT. The bet is small and you have 10 outs to a make a boat (or better) which he will probably will pay you off nicely if he has a flush or str8.

I wouldn't raise OTT, I do think your assumption that he is strong, is a good one. Passive players that suddenly wake up are often strong.
 
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Mon Apr 14, 2014, 02:16 PM
(#3)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Is the replayer broke or something? Did we just fold vs a 10c donk into 30c.
 
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Mon Apr 14, 2014, 02:19 PM
(#4)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Never folding the turn, we have the remaining 7, three 6's, J's and 8's that are likely to be good for us so we are never drawing dead unless against a higher set. Incidentally, he can be doing this with 6's too, and we have him in horrible shape.

Donk bets like that are often draws and weak pairs. We just have to call here for so many reasons.
 
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Mon Apr 14, 2014, 02:23 PM
(#5)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
Agreed! And if he continues betting that small, you can call the river too without thinking.

Last edited by braveslice; Mon Apr 14, 2014 at 02:26 PM..
 
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Mon Apr 14, 2014, 05:33 PM
(#6)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Hi Michael,

Against a loose-passive calling station, I think you can go even bigger on this flop as there is a very high chance that he's picked up a decent piece of this that he won't be willing to fold. I wouldn't mind seeing a bet of $0.10 or even $0.11.

Folding this turn is a significant mistake. Even if he flipped his cards over and showed AhKh, you're getting too good a price to call to redraw to your full house/quads outs. Assuming he's got the best hand (which he might not have), you've almost certainly got 10 outs in the deck that will give you the best hand. There are 46 unknown cards left in the deck, so you've got a ~22% chance of out drawing the villain.

You are facing a bet of $0.10 with a pot of $0.40, meaning you have 4:1 pot odds, meaning you only need to win 20% of the time to show a profit. This is even before you consider implied odds, which are bets you might win on the river when you hit your hand.

Furthermore I think you're reading too much into his AF stats. Over 33 hands, these can be very misleading, as demonstrated by the fact that his AF jumped so much due to this hand. His VPIP/PFR is meaningful to some extent, especially when it's this wild.
 

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