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10nl, 6-max ... Should I fold on the flop?

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10nl, 6-max ... Should I fold on the flop? - Mon Apr 14, 2014, 07:51 PM
(#1)
Tyirl's Avatar
Since: Dec 2012
Posts: 389
I feel like I sometimes hold on to hands too long and I am trying to decide if this is one of those times.

I have only played about 50 hands with this guy. He has been active and aggro, and his sizes have been larger than normal.

On the flop my thought is that this flop could hit the range of someone flat calling from the SB pretty hard. He checks and I think a C-bet is required for this board with AA so I make it my normal C-bet size. He check/raises really large, and so I have a decision. I don't really like folding AA to only one aggressive action but should I on this flop? I don't like the idea of getting it all in on this flop with my hand, but this guy has been making these large kinds of bets and has been aggro. I'm thinking that he could be doing this with air. If there was no backdoor flush draw possibility then maybe I just fold, but I decided to flat call to see if a heart arrives on the turn. If a heart arrives then I was thinking I would probably get it all in. No heart on the turn, and he bets the pot so I fold.





So, I guess I have two basic questions:

1. Should I just fold to this size check raise on this flop with AA?

2. Does the thought of getting it in on the turn if a heart peels off have any merit? I think if he leads for a more normal size on the turn then there could be some fold equity vs his 2 pair hands or maybe his sets, but maybe not any FE vs this villain even if he did make it a more normal size if he had those kinds of hands. He had been betting larger than normal, but I didn't really expect that size bet on the turn. He could have a hand like 9T of hearts also, but it seems more like he has a hand that he doesn't want to get drawn out on instead of a hand that is drawing, dunno.


Thanks for any insights/advice

T


Edit: Btw, I was hoping for hand analysis, but the hand analysis forum says it's for ChromeStar+ only now so I posted here. I'm in the U.S. so I don't think ChromeStar even existed when I was last able to play on PokerStars.

Last edited by Tyirl; Mon Apr 14, 2014 at 08:22 PM..
 
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Mon Apr 14, 2014, 10:54 PM
(#2)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
I don't like c-betting this flop texture for the same reasons you stated. An aggressive villain will be check-raising quite often with JJJ, 999, all two pairs and a lot of decent draws that have a fair amount of equity vs your range. Considering villain is aggro I would not expect AK to be in his range at all when he calls, which would be the main hand I would hope to get value from. Checking back flop and check-calling blank turn and rivers makes a lot more sense to me. I would expect villain to barrel his draws on turn and river regardless of if they hit or not. This way you get value from worse hands like KQ and missed draws while pot controlling vs his value range.

As played,
1) I would. There are really no cards left that will make you feel any more comfortable about your hand. Sure there are 2 aces left in the deck, but while catching one would crush his value range you are also crushed vs his straight draws so it doesn't improve your hand a ton.

2) As stated in 1, the backdoor nut flush draw doesn't add much equity to your hand on the flop so it doesn't change the outcome much as I would never expect an aggro villain to check a heart on the turn after check-raising the flop.
 
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Mon Apr 14, 2014, 11:17 PM
(#3)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Hey Tyirl, I see your name in the chat box of the live training vids all the time

Oh, and I stopped to eat a snack and rocker showed up - hey, how's it going?


Wow, that check-raise is huge!

Think this is the sort of spot I've been auto-pilot calling check-raises (smaller in size), hoping the turn would make it more clear if the villain's raising with a better hand or just a draw?

But now that I take a closer look at this flop - yeah, maybe rocker's right ... guess AA is only flipping at best versus all the possible combo draws the villain might want to raise, and is behind all sets and 2pr?

Also, yeah that's true about there not being too many turn cards that would be helpful ... and there might be a lot that we wouldn't be too happy to see?


Hmmm ...

Last edited by TrustySam; Mon Apr 14, 2014 at 11:22 PM..
 
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Tue Apr 15, 2014, 11:50 AM
(#4)
ApexShark's Avatar
Since: Aug 2013
Posts: 36
ChromeStar
Hi Tyirl,

I'm not an expert, but here are my views... hope they give you something to think about at the very least. Sorry that it's long, but this is what I would do at a live game where I am generally a lot trickier.

I like to think about this from the other perspective. Let's imagine I'm the Villain.

_______________________

I'm in Small blind... you raise UTG 3BB... so I guess you are strong AA / KK / QQ / AKs / JJ if you are tight which I guess your image is.

I'm out of position... if I'm holding AA, KK or QQ then I'm 3-betting you for sure. But I don't. (but sometimes they don't)

Kh,Jh,9c comes down and I'm not holding the Ah... so even if I have Qh, Q ... I'm worried that your range could have the Ah easily. Also if you have Ah, unless I have KK or JJ, I'm behind. Why? You are holding one heart at the most (Ah) with regards to flushes too, as you can't be holding AhKh, all other possibilities are outside your UTG range.


So what options do I have?
1) Check/Check, Check/Fold

2) Check and call, but you will think you are ahead and if I don't have KK or JJ then I'm either on a flush or straight draw... or hopefully not... a flush/straight draw (but unlikely as QTs a 3-bet from SB?)

3) Check-raise, represent strength. If I do this on the flop, then I will do this on the turn as long as a danger card doesn't appear for me (A if I'm holding KK or JJ) or a heart whatever I'm holding.

4) Raise, I have KK basically.


What would I do if I were behind?
AK or QQ, I think your C-bet size has also forced me to do (3). I'm thinking you must have AA or AK... you can't have KK, QQ or JJ, you'd have bet more surely, cos the Ah would be scaring the crap out of you if you did?

I would over-bet as well. Although I think you have AA, I am confident you either have AA and are scared of hearts, A, K, J and T and would be reluctant to give it up on the flop (A is the only card that really scares me), KK (A scares me again ), QQ (A scares me again) or AK (A scares me) and JJ (A, Q or K scares me). There's not many danger cards out there for me and for a flush... runner runner hearts is needed.

When the turn comes... there's no heart, and because you called the check-raise, I figure you have AA as QQ wasn't getting the right equity for you to call such a large bet.

Despite still being behind, only an A on the river scares me now, this would tell you, that you were ahead. So I continue with a big bet.

What if I'm ahead?
I must be holding either KK or JJ, for KK (A scares me), for JJ (A K or Q scares me)

Again, your C-bet makes me think AA, so not too many scares cards and this time I'm ahead. I can now either call (2) or re-raise (3). I don't think raising is an option, you'll probably think I have KK or JJ (what else could I have) and it'd be an instant action killer. If I call, you probably think I am either drawing or slow playing. But unbelievably, there are more action killer cards for you not me, despite being ahead! And that's what makes re-raising and over-betting a good option... I want to build that pot before an A comes down and kills the fun for me (+KQ if holding J), or a K, Q, J or T comes down and kills the fun for you.

No scare cards (no runner runner hearts either) on the turn so I continue but do I bet big or bet small.

Bet big... scare you off... bet small build pot for river. No brainer if I was clever enough to check-raise with the thought process above.
_______________________

So what does that mean after thinking about that if I was in your position.

Good bet preflop... happy with that.

Flop not amazing... KK and JJ are only things really scaring me. If a T comes down on the turn or river then I'm worried. So there's not much that can beat me. So I should bet half pot-ish and get Villain to call? Or is this wrong because of my Villain thoughts... as this has given away that I have AA?

I think if you have bet bigger on the flop (pot-sized rather than half), the Villain would have given up on the turn, if he then check-raised, he surely has KK so fold (as he must put you on JJ, KK or AA then).

Problem with betting half-pot and Villain check raising is that he could have anything (as shown above), he's taken over the initiative.

_______________________

What do I think the Villain had? Not KK... why? I would've value bet the turn knowing you were going to come for the ride with your Aces.

Those are my long thoughts... be interesting what a hand analyser thinks?

Thinking about this a lot has helped me think about what to do in these situations as Hero and Villain... so thanks for posting!

Cheers,

Apex

Last edited by ApexShark; Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 11:53 AM..
 
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Tue Apr 15, 2014, 07:37 PM
(#5)
Tyirl's Avatar
Since: Dec 2012
Posts: 389
Hey, thanks for the replies!

I seem to always be able to find a reason to C-bet, but have a hard time realizing when I should not C-bet. I have to work on that. Definitely checking behind would have been better in this hand, I see that now and agree. I'm probably not going to want to bet three streets if he calls the C-bet anyways, so why not check to avoid the check/raise?

Quote:
Originally Posted by RockerguyAA View Post
2) As stated in 1, the backdoor nut flush draw doesn't add much equity to your hand on the flop so it doesn't change the outcome much as I would never expect an aggro villain to check a heart on the turn after check-raising the flop.
I was expecting him to lead on the turn most of the time unless it was just a total air spaz check/raise (which I did think was possible), but I was thinking about shoving over his bet if the turn was a heart with the idea that I might have some fold equity against some hands that I'm behind and have some outs when he calls. If it was the ten or queen of hearts then I also have a royal flush draw! lol. Now that I have thought about it more I realize that one of the mistakes that I made was that I didn't consider how bloated the pot would be after I called that large of a check/raise. With the pot being $4.70 on the turn and my stack only $7.70 then even if he only bets $2.50 to $3.00 he would only have to call off around $5.00 into a huge pot so the fold equity would not be much if any. The effective stack would have to be larger, and even then that play might just be a spew anyways.

ApexShark, sorry that I forgot to mention what my likely table image was. I did mean to include that at the beginning, but I forgot. I think my likely table image is lag at best, but maybe lagfish or worse. I am pretty sure this villain wasn't considering the hand at the level of thought that you are. At least I know he isn't a regular at 10nl on the site I play on. If he is thinking about ranges at all, then I don't think he should immediately put me on such a narrow range of only premiums. I guess the flat call of his check/raise could narrow my range, or at least make it polarized. I don't think it looks incredibly weak to flat that size check raise, but maybe it does. I admit that usually I would be just raising his check/raise to get it in on this flop with my strong hands, but not always, and maybe not vs this villain who has been aggro and betting larger than normal amounts, dunno. Does this villain take all of these things into consideration? I don't really think he was.



Last edited by Tyirl; Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 07:43 PM..
 

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