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river bluff OTR five flush cards

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river bluff OTR five flush cards - Tue Apr 15, 2014, 08:30 AM
(#1)
NaturoSasuki's Avatar
Since: Dec 2013
Posts: 348
Poker Stars $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2474272
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $6.41
SB: $5.05
BB: $5.76
UTG: $5.38
MP: $5.43
CO: $2.41

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BTN with
1 fold, MP raises to $0.15, CO calls $0.15, Hero calls $0.15, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.52) (3 players)
MP checks, CO checks, Hero bets $0.45, MP raises to $1.15, CO folds, Hero calls $0.70

Turn: ($2.82) (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks

River: ($2.82) (2 players)
MP bets $2, Hero raises to $5.11 all in, MP folds

Last edited by NaturoSasuki; Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 08:34 AM..
 
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Tue Apr 15, 2014, 10:51 AM
(#2)
A Beatmaker's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 74
Fold or 3bet pre. I guess it would be good to go all in OTF, but idno am to pasive with 2pair hands. On the river i wouldint bluf. wouldint bluff at all (maiby vs some regs on with i have info) in NL5 people caling to mutch so use it and valu bet bet bet. If I did bluff I might raise smaller because you will get same efect and you need leed ducesfool you b buff.
 
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Tue Apr 15, 2014, 11:37 AM
(#3)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
Given that he was a reg: The only cards he can call is Qh or Th. Th not even every time.

There might be AxQh on his OTF raise range, but no Th usually, in some rare cases he can raise with AxTh, Th8h(not really if he is a reg). Other raise cards, at least common are {A9,A4,99,44,AK, all suited made flushes}. If he is not abc reg, his opening range includes the funny QhTh.

I think you are most likely beat, so bluffing is our only chance to win. You need to make him fold 50% (not quite sure about this number, but the old saying is that pot size bluf has to work 50% of the time) of the time your bluff to be profitable, which against reg I think is reasonable expectation.

This was obviously speculation only, I don't really know. Against a calling station I think you need to fold.

Last edited by braveslice; Tue Apr 15, 2014 at 11:52 AM..
 
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Tue Apr 15, 2014, 11:44 AM
(#4)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
CALLING preflop is the best option. The X/R OTF doesn't make much sense to me. I would probably jam AI over the X/R OTF.

OTF: All hands that are beating you would bet: AA, 99, 44, A9. I think this player probably had something like KK without a heart.

OTT: I like the check back.

OTR: Not a bad play if we were deeper. I'm suprised MP folded after investing more than half his stack into this pot. The villains bet OTR was big enough to say that he's not folding but then he does. Make a note.

Nice bluff.
 
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Tue Apr 15, 2014, 01:26 PM
(#5)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
If you think about this hand in Game Theory terms specifically prisoner's dilemma or Nash equilibrium I think the answer would be to fold. We won't see enough bluffs here to make our raise profitable and since we don't have history with our opponent it will be hard for either one of us to exploit the other without taking a wild guess or un-calculated risk. This will not make money in the long run imo.
 

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