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KQs SB v BTN flop the nuts again - flop bet sizing?

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KQs SB v BTN flop the nuts again - flop bet sizing? - Wed Apr 16, 2014, 02:54 PM
(#1)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
So, although this is in advanced cash game review, its possibly a newbie type question.

I 3bet BTN both because he has a 33% BTN steal percentage (Only 9 opportunities but his vpip/pfr is 18/17 over 104 hands so he looks reggish and aware of necessity of stealing) and the BB looks reggish too, with decent 3bet stats over a small sample, and I don't want him to squeeze light.

BTN calls, we see a flop, and it is the absolute nuts for me. I'm a little concerned about my bet sizing though, not the cbet, but he raises, and I make my 3bet about .

I pretty much put him squarely on a set (I know we cant limit his range to one hand but in the moment I felt it was the most likely hand strength he would do this with).

Given what I think he has, should I not be making my 3bet much larger than I did? Making it an easy shove on a turn blank if he just calls?

The hand plays itself in a sense but I think I am being far too careless still with bet sizing.

 
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Wed Apr 16, 2014, 04:08 PM
(#2)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
I would just make your raise to $5 or a bit more instead of $4.50 so that you have less than a PSB to shove the turn with. Everything else looks good.
 
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Wed Apr 16, 2014, 10:15 PM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hey bhoy,

I think our hand plays better preflop for a call personally, 3B this will tend to simply isolate us against a range that dominates us and fold out most of his steals... and he doesn't seem out of line enough at 3/9 attempts to be doing this.

Definitely 3b larger on the flop, I agree with dirt that we want to set up a stack shove on the turn here, so like 5.50-5.75 at least imo.


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Thu Apr 17, 2014, 01:23 AM
(#4)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
I don't think his 3bet % is out of line per se it's just that from other positions combined its a fraction of that. So it just feels that he will be more active from the button. Often, when I call a hand like this, I get squeezed from the BB. Is our hand strong enough to continue in a squeezed pot if we do?

And yeah, I was thinking I should have gone $6 to make it a really easy shove on the turn.
 
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Thu Apr 17, 2014, 10:40 AM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
You don't get squeezed often from the BB, and the 1 time out of 10 that he does you can just let it go. If you happen to have reads that the BB is a squeeze maniac then you can defend against his 3b since he'll have so much junk in his range... even a squeeze maniac is likely only hitting it maybe 3 or 3.5 times out of 10.

It's more likely if the BB gets involved at all, that he'll close the action with a call and see the flop for a good price, and may widen his range a bit to do so. That works in our favor imo because his calling range will include all broadway combos we dominate, adding value to our hand and making it harder for the button to bluff since it's multi-way.


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Thu Apr 17, 2014, 02:20 PM
(#6)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
You don't get squeezed often from the BB, and the 1 time out of 10 that he does you can just let it go. If you happen to have reads that the BB is a squeeze maniac then you can defend against his 3b since he'll have so much junk in his range... even a squeeze maniac is likely only hitting it maybe 3 or 3.5 times out of 10.

It's more likely if the BB gets involved at all, that he'll close the action with a call and see the flop for a good price, and may widen his range a bit to do so. That works in our favor imo because his calling range will include all broadway combos we dominate, adding value to our hand and making it harder for the button to bluff since it's multi-way.
Okay, thanks Dave.

I'll admit it's a perception I have rather than something I have drilled down on using HEM, being squeezed so much from the BB, to be honest I didn't actually realise I had said the BB specifically. I actually meant in pots where I have called a raise with players left to act, it feels like I get squeezed a tonne, which is why I have tried to increase 3bets a little. I'll see if I can identify the truth with a review of 10NL play so far.Probably gone over the top in some situations.

At least the end result worked out here, all in on the flop against 99 and held twice for a huge pot.
 

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