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2NL Zoom 6max - missed flush draw or...?

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2NL Zoom 6max - missed flush draw or...? - Thu Apr 17, 2014, 08:42 PM
(#1)
Nishkey's Avatar
Since: Oct 2012
Posts: 54


Hi guys! I would like to hear your opinion on this hand and help me see what I did wrong.

Villain stats from HM2 trial ver. Vp$IP 32/PFR 20/AF 7.0/3Bet 0.0 from 26 hands

also I would like to know what do you think about this villain range.

Thanks!
 
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Thu Apr 17, 2014, 10:36 PM
(#2)
HokyPokyToo's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,902
** moved to Poker Beginners Hand Discussion **


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Fri Apr 18, 2014, 06:38 AM
(#3)
royalraise85's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 26,032
(Community Coordinator)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nishkey View Post
Villain stats from HM2 trial ver. Vp$IP 32/PFR 20/AF 7.0/3Bet 0.0 from 26 hands
also I would like to know what do you think about this villain range.
Hi Nishkey,

The villain looks like a loose/aggressive type but with only 26 hands on them it's too early to say, we'd need a much larger sample to get a true picture of their playing style.

Preflop
You're in early position and 1st to enter the pot and you bet big, I like that. It will help determine the strength of your opponents hands. Players will normally only call this bet with a strong holding although a really good player should 3-bet here, so the call by Seat 6 indicates to me that he has a holding of 99-QQ, Ak - AJ. I do not think he has AA or KK as if he did he should have 3-bet.

On The Flop
Ok, so we are out of position against an aggressive opponent. Personally I'd make a continuation bet here to gain information but first let's take a few things into consideration.

1. Has the flop weakened or strengthened our hand?
2. Does the flop favour our opponents range?
3. What is our plan for the hand if our opponent calls or re-raises us on this flop?

So the flop comes nothing to really worry us here, or is there?

If he's a loose opponent he might have made a set or he could be on a flush draw, maybe he has a holding like :10d ?

Personally I would have bet a little bigger post-flop, maybe 15c. I want to find out if our opponent likes his hand here. If he calls a big bet on the flop it should mean he has a big hand or is on a big draw. If he re-raises us that means real danger and proceed with caution, especially against tighter opponents.

Ok, so he re-raised us, he could have hit a set but being aggressive it's more likely that he just wants to push us off the hand.

On The Turn

The turn card pairs the board which is a great card for the opponent if he holds pocket 4's. However, we've still got a lot of equity against his range. Using PokerStove we are an 83.7% favorite to win the hand at this point.

He bet's half the pot and it really looks like he wants to suck you in here, he wants you to call this bet. Also, he's taken the initiative here and has shown confidence in the strength of his hand, he's playing this well. However, I don't think we should even consider folding here.

On The River

We checked and he shipped all-in. It's a really tough spot but I'd probably call this bet. It's either we are crushed or the opponent is showing this aggression to get us to fold because he does not want us to go to showdown. I still think our hand is strong enough to make a hero call here. If our opponent was a very tight player with a low aggression factor I might have folded.

I'd suggest using PokerStove and take a look at your equity on each street. We are actually ahead more in this hand then we would think.

Do you know what the opponent has holding in the end?

Raiser


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Last edited by royalraise85; Fri Apr 18, 2014 at 06:44 AM..
 
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Fri Apr 18, 2014, 07:15 AM
(#4)
mytton's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 181
Here's my take for what it's worth. I think you played the hand fine. It's not good to lose the initiative in a hand, something to be resisted where possible, but in this case I don't think JJ is strong enough postflop to be played any other way than you did.

Not many hands on villain but he appears pretty loose and not shy about making aggressive moves. Being deep stacked against you may encourage him to call preflop with a widish range of speculative hands here.

The flop raise could be a set or one of many possible draws (flush, straight or combo), or perhaps an overpair, although I would usually have expected a preflop raise with at least AA or KK, which leaves 88,99 and TT and maybe QQ. 76s and 87s are also both clear possibilities. Call and reassess the turn seems a good standard response.

Similarly, check/calling the turn looks the standard play to me. Raising would seem to be turning JJ into a bluff, and you are obviously not folding to this bet. The small betsize contains clues for us. To me it looks more like a set that has made a fullhouse and wants to keep your draws in, or he is on a draw himself and wants to cheaply keep the initiative with a sort of half-hearted semi-bluff. Of course with a weak draw he could have simply taken the free card, so we can note that the field of probable draws has thinned. Overpairs here would probably mostly bet larger to put pressure on draws, so these I think are less likely as we go to the river.

Can't see any point donking the river given he is mostly either ahead and not folding, or has missed and is giving up.

When he then shoves the river I think we just have to fold. There are plenty of hands in his range (22,44,88, 56s, 78s) that beat us. Pairs we are ahead of like 99 or TT now look very unlikely. True there are some missed flush draws and combos like Ad5d that might still be around and might bluff here, but there are really not many combinations of them, nor any guarantee he would bluff with them. So for me it's a fold without stronger evidence that this villain is wildly bluff-happy.

Raiser beat me to the punch while I was typing this, and clearly has a very different take on the hand. But that's ok, it's interesting to compare and contrast opinions. I think our disagreement stems largely from assessing the villain's preflop calling range, which I make much wider given a 2nl villain with loose-ish tendencies.
 
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Fri Apr 18, 2014, 07:30 AM
(#5)
Nishkey's Avatar
Since: Oct 2012
Posts: 54
Thank you very much raiser and mytton on your reviews!
I thought he may have an Ad7d/Kd/7d or a set when he re-raised the flop, and on turn his bet really looked strong to me, but on the river I was confused with his bet, and because it was so big I was considering to call, cause he may had a busted fd.
And after long time I folded.. so will never know what he had

Last edited by Nishkey; Fri Apr 18, 2014 at 07:33 AM..
 
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Fri Apr 18, 2014, 01:15 PM
(#6)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,359
Fold the river, unless you have a specific note that villain shoves with missed draws.

Loose aggro players in particular like raising one pair hands on the flop. He can definitely have 7x here, and possibly even have rivered a house with 87. I do a lot of bluff-catching, but I'm happy to fold jacks here (and if the turn bet had been bigger I might have even folded right there). This kind of player will probably donate his stack to you where you have much easier decisions, so you don't have to be a hero every time.


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Fri Apr 18, 2014, 02:27 PM
(#7)
Nishkey's Avatar
Since: Oct 2012
Posts: 54
Thanks Arty!
 

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