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55 10nl zoom should i fold the river

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55 10nl zoom should i fold the river - Fri Apr 18, 2014, 09:16 AM
(#1)
Gingerfish1's Avatar
Since: Oct 2012
Posts: 9
Villains unknown. Should i call the shove? hes only showing any action on the river i think AQ would of bet flop might have AT and obv KJ hits the river

 
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Fri Apr 18, 2014, 10:03 AM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,496
(Head Trainer)
Hi Ginger,

It seems like a pretty serious overplay of AT by the villain if that's what he holds. We should look very strong here, as we could have sometimes played QQ, AA, or KJ this way ourselves. So I think in the villains shoes 3b shoving AT is really bad since all hands that call that shove will be able to beat it, and we can hold all those hands. Of course, it's 10NL, and certainly there are a lot of randoms in 10NL that simply won't be ranging us and realize this, and will treat aces up like it's the holy nuts.

That being said, I agree with you that it seems like AT or KJ a lot. Combinantorically there are 9 ways he can hold AT and 16 ways to hold KJ, so based on that alone he's a 16-9 favorite to have us beat. And I would discount at least some of the AT combos for the reason above even vs. a random 10NL player, as I think many will just call with AT facing our large river raise, for fear of AQ/QQ/AA.

So yes, I think it's a groan and fold.


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Last edited by TheLangolier; Fri Apr 18, 2014 at 10:38 AM..
 
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Fri Apr 18, 2014, 11:10 AM
(#3)
Gingerfish1's Avatar
Since: Oct 2012
Posts: 9
Hey Langolier thanks again defiantly should of folded.
 

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