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2NL KK 3bet squeezed pot on AAx flop - line check

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2NL KK 3bet squeezed pot on AAx flop - line check - Wed Apr 23, 2014, 06:07 PM
(#1)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Hand was played on Ipad (Didn't want to be playing 10NL on Ipad so was playing 2NL instead) so had absolutely no reads on the opponent as I didn't recognise him as someone I had played a pot against.

Pre-flop is pretty standard, I squeeze with KK for value, slightly bigger than pot because I think they will certainly still call with worse.

Flop, it's not exactly ideal, I'd prefer it if it was two K's but at the same time it vastly reduces the amount of Ax hands that he can have as two of them are on the flop. Given that, I check it, so that he can bet with his worse hands which I might fold out by continuing. He does bet, so I continue with my plan.

Turn goes check/check, so at this point I still don't believe he has an Ace.

River, I still don't think leading is a good idea as I don't think I will get value from worse, but I have so underrepped my hand that I think he can bet with worse and think I will fold because I am scared of the AAx board.

If I give him all PP and all Ax I am getting the right odds to call.

Thoughts on this line and my thought process?




Board: TDACAD QH 3C
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    66.55%  66.21%   0.34% { 22+, A2s+, A2o+ }
MP3    33.45%  33.10%   0.34% { KK }
 
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Thu Apr 24, 2014, 06:10 AM
(#2)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
I think this hand is almost impossible to analyze given we don’t have reads about his aggression.

He is fish, given the stack size and cold call of 3bet, but is he aggressive fish or passive fish.

Most of the fish are passive ones, let say 2/3 are passive and 1/3 are aggressive.

Second point, I don’t think he is bluffing too much, only sometimes when V is agro.

When agro, he has u beat {A9+,KJ,33} , you win {JJ,KQ,KT,QJ,QT,TJ} <- TJ is a bluff component
When passive, {A9+,TT}, you win {}

Tot eq: 2/3*0 +1/3*54% = 18%

This result just goes to say that there is something wrong there, as I would guess you are way better than the number indicates.

Last edited by braveslice; Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 06:19 AM..
 
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Thu Apr 24, 2014, 06:19 AM
(#3)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Quote:
Originally Posted by braveslice View Post
I think this hand is almost impossible to analyze given we don’t have reads about his aggression.
Sometimes we have to make decisions with no information available other than what has taken place in the hand so far.

If I had reads that he was a bluff happy maniac, it's easy to analyse, as I think I should be calling almost all the time against a maniac who doesn't need to have an Ace to continue in the hand.

If I had reads that he was a nit, then its also pretty easy, I should be folding because his range to get to the river is so much stronger. He pretty much needs to have Ax, QQ or TT to take that action.

Sometime we have to go on gut instinct, there's two Aces on the board, reducing the chances he has one. I'm slightly more concerned about TT and QQ because it's conceivable that he takes this line with those hands.

One thing people will always do at 2NL is set-mine without anywhere close to the right odds and with all hands 22+ (Obviously a slight exaggeration}. So I had to bank on that being the case here I think. W
 
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Thu Apr 24, 2014, 07:35 AM
(#4)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
Yes there are 2 aces on the board, but still he has very many combinations of aces, if he plays wide Ax range.

If you give him A2+ range and two A OTF, he has 11*2*4+1*2*3 = 94 combinations of A. That is quite massive, 7% of all possible hands in poker.

I left QQ out because I though small stacker won't just call that, but if he is passive then why not. Doesent change the calculation btw, agressive surely would 3bet that, and passive already has only hands that beat us.

Last edited by braveslice; Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 07:54 AM..
 
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Thu Apr 24, 2014, 08:05 AM
(#5)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,353
I was scratching my head about this one last night and couldn't immediately make sense of it. Obviously villain's overall range is wide open, since the hand got checked all the way to the river. He definitely has a bunch of underpairs in his range, but what would be the point in betting them? You're never calling with worse if he bets with 77 or 66, because you can't hero call with king high, since all your kings except junky ones made a straight or a pair, and you would usually have already bet KQ on the turn if that's in your 3-betting range.
At 2NL, villains will make pointless "valuebets" that can't get called by worse, and they will also sometimes make crazy bluffs (I wouldn't be surprised to see something like J9s show up here). In this particular spot though, I think villain has trips or a boat. Although I'm a big fan of checking to induce bluffs, I think you should have bet-folded the river in this spot, to get paid by hands like QJs and 88, and to have an easy fold when villain raises with his trips/boat.

Did he show up with A3s?


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Thu Apr 24, 2014, 11:43 AM
(#6)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,819
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I'd have went about this one differently. I'd absolutely squeeze pre, as played.
However, since I made the last and largest bet preflop, I'm leading this flop. If I get called, then I can check the turn for pot control. If I get raised, it's most likely an A, so I can get off the hand.

The reason that I don't want to check the flop and turn is that since I don't have an A, it leaves me open to a river bluff or an opp thinking a T is good here, that wants to go nuts too. Also, by checking all 3 streets, I have absolutely no information about the opp's hand. All that I know is that they called a preflop squeeze, which on a readless opp, could mean anything.

John (JWK24)


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Thu Apr 24, 2014, 12:32 PM
(#7)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Ok, thanks everyone for the comments and advice.

He had 66. If I was playing my normal stakes there is a good chance that I play the hand very differently including leading the flop for the standard cbet.

This hand was kind of an experiment. As a side result I found out later on that he was a weak passive player, who decided to turn this into a bluff, just thought it was an interesting hand to have a look at.
 
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Thu Apr 24, 2014, 01:37 PM
(#8)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Quote:
Originally Posted by braveslice View Post
Yes there are 2 aces on the board, but still he has very many combinations of aces, if he plays wide Ax range.

If you give him A2+ range and two A OTF, he has 11*2*4+1*2*3 = 94 combinations of A. That is quite massive, 7% of all possible hands in poker.

I left QQ out because I though small stacker won't just call that, but if he is passive then why not. Doesent change the calculation btw, agressive surely would 3bet that, and passive already has only hands that beat us.
What is this calculation? I cant work out what you have done there.
 
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Thu Apr 24, 2014, 05:49 PM
(#9)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
11 times (2-Q), he is left with 2 Aces, and 4 different same number cards, so for example A2 has 2*4 combinations, times 11 -> 11*2*4

One time there is only 3 same numbers as the last card is taken, so If board is AAK, there is only 2*3 combinations of AK, thus 1*2*3

Last edited by braveslice; Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 05:51 PM..
 
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Fri Apr 25, 2014, 02:03 PM
(#10)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
Quote:
Originally Posted by bhoylegend View Post
This hand was kind of an experiment. As a side result I found out later on that he was a weak passive player, who decided to turn this into a bluff, just thought it was an interesting hand to have a look at.
I was so close to add 10% bluff range to passive fish range as they do recommend (everyone has at least 10% bluff range), but then felt lazy, and to be honest I kinda gave villain A because your included range as loose as A2+.
 

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