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Nl10SH - top 2 on 3 spade board

Nl10SH - top 2 on 3 spade board - Sun Apr 27, 2014, 01:33 PM
pockettones's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 151
Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $10.40 (104 bb)
SB: $10.05 (100.5 bb)
BB: $11.14 (111.4 bb)
UTG: $29.93 (299.3 bb)
Hero (MP): $11.02 (110.2 bb)
CO: $10 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q A
UTG raises to $0.40, Hero calls $0.40, CO calls $0.40, 3 folds

Flop: ($1.35) 3 Q A (3 players)
UTG bets $1, Hero raises to $2.60, CO folds, UTG raises to $29.53 and is all-in, Hero calls $8.02 and is all-in

Turn: ($22.59) 5 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
River: ($22.59) 6 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

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Villain 25/25/12 over 64 and AF of 6 so hes shaping to be a very agressive player. Guy to my left is a nit 13/8. Over 200 hands. I decide to raise for value from AX and flush draws, and I dont think I can fold to this guys shove. I think maybe I should have flatted flop and kept him wide then reraised a non spade turn, Im not sure how cally he is.
Sun Apr 27, 2014, 03:17 PM
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Hi Pockettones,

Let's do some range analysis here.
Let's assume villain opens 15% from UTG: (AA-22, AK-AT, A5s-A2s, KQ, KJs, QJs-98s, KTs, QTs}
Although we have 75% against his entire range OTF, I think he will not cbet this board into two opponents with 100% of his hands. Let's think about hands that make sense to check-call this flop: {KKs, JJs, maybe TTs, KsQ, QTs, ...} So hands that bet this flop are {AA, QQ, 33, AQ, A3, AK, maybe AJs, and all their made flushes KsJs, KsTs, JsTs-9s8s} Against that range, our 2pair is only even money. Take out A3 and we fall to 45%; I think this is a close one, I'm not sure I like calling with another opponent behind us but also by raising we are kind of hoping our opponent would call with AKs or AJs or A3 that's it even AK without a spade might have trouble to continue and if they fold that then we fall to 38% equity; I also doubt AJs would get it in and AKs also makes sense to just call because it's hard for them to beat worse when they go all in so now we are in the 33% zone. I think this would be alot different if we had QQ because we would be packing 60% equity.
When they shove on us, the pot odds are at 35.5% which means we need them to have AKs in their range which will give us 35.89% equity else we fall 2% short in EV

Last edited by geoVARTA; Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 03:23 PM..

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