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Where did I go wrong?

Where did I go wrong? - Sun Apr 27, 2014, 02:23 PM
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094

Can you plz tell me where I made mistake , I was scared of being over-setted all the time only. $109 down the drain.

Mon Apr 28, 2014, 01:48 AM
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
PF: You have an M of 12. We don't want to be playing passively with M of 11-19. Also calling 240 is 9% of your stack, so I would be looking to CC with 99-JJ and 3-betting QQ+. You can also use the rule of 15x (240 x 15 = 3600). So calling PF is a mistake IMO.

OTF: 1/2 to 3/4 pot is ok. I like 3/4 pot better because I'm looking to get it in OTF and if they just call then I ca shove the turn. Not sure why you lead yourself ZERO chips OTT. Just get it in!

Having said that… I think the mistake is PF. But once we hit a set OTF I'm never folding.
Mon Apr 28, 2014, 01:04 PM
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,788
Hi adi!

I agree with dirt eh... the key decision in this hand is the first one preflop. With 88, if I want to call a bet to try to setmine, I need to have 15X the bet in both my stack and the opp's stack. Neither of us have this large of a stack, so calling is out.
This narrows my choices to raise or fold.
If I raise, I will need to raise to 3X the previous bet (720), which is very close to pot-committing me. Also, there is already 18% of my stack in the middle. With this being the case, if I decide to raise, then I need to shove.

The screenshot that you put in your post doesn't have you at the table, so I'm not sure if these are the correct opp stats or not. If BINGO is the opp, their PFR is 10%, so I now need to see how 88 does against their raising range and from pokerstove, I get that 88 is a 56-44% underdog.

If the opp's fold to 3-bet% is higher, then I'd be more likely to 3-bet shove preflop, as the number of times that the opp will fold will make this a +EV situation, even though I'm an underdog if I'm called.

If the opp is unlikely to fold to a 3-bet, then I'm going to fold 88 here preflop and look for a better situation.

As played, when I flop middle set on a VERY wet board and get the opp checking to me, I'm going to make a standard value bet. A standard bet against one opp on a dry board is 1/2 pot, but with this being a very wet board where combination draws are definitely in play, a standard bet is 2/3 pot, so I will bet 460. I don't want to bet less than this, as I can be giving the opp the correct odds to try to outdraw me.

The same thing on the turn. I need to bet 2/3 pot and now, since this bet pot-commits me (puts over 1/3 of my remaining chips into the pot), I'm shoving the turn.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


6 Time Bracelet Winner


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