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Pot odds needed to call flush or straight draw on the turn?

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Pot odds needed to call flush or straight draw on the turn? - Sun Apr 27, 2014, 06:26 PM
(#1)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
Hi,
Please state, your opinion, what pot odds are needed to call on the TURN

a) Flush draw against
a1) NIT
a2) TAG (VPIP 20, PRF 15)
a3) Calling station

b) Straight draw against
b1) NIT
b2) TAG (VPIP 20, PRF 15)
b4) Calling station

I'm guessing IP or OOP will make a difference, but not sure.

Do you know any videos about it? Do you know any tutorials about it?

I find it funny that I haven’t come up with answer to this somewhat elementary and everyday problem.

Just in case, please don’t answer direct odds, but implied odds answer.

IMO on the flop, one can call almost anything, so if you disagree please make your opinion known.

Last edited by braveslice; Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 06:32 PM..
 
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Sun Apr 27, 2014, 06:52 PM
(#2)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
As presented your question is unanswerable as there are too many possible variations of your scenarios.

Big bet poker is a game of implied odds, not pot odds. There are four elements of implied odds, which include potential winnings, to consider:
The probability of making your hand.
The probability of it holding up.
The effective stack or how much you may win.
The probability of being paid off.
 
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Sun Apr 27, 2014, 07:34 PM
(#3)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,363
I sometimes float the turn to bluff the river with my missed draws too, so I'll usually call anything up to 75% of pot with a decent draw. Whether I'm bluffing the river or betting/raising it for value when I hit, I need plenty of money behind. It's pointless calling the turn if villain will be pot-committed with a stacksize like 1x the river pot.
All this said, I try not to make a habit of calling multiple streets with draws post-flop. I prefer to raise the flop with most draws to seize the initiative, as being passive with draws is clearly not profitable in the long run, except against weak players that bet very small to allow you to suck out at a bargain price, and that pay off when you bink.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Sun Apr 27, 2014, 08:28 PM
(#4)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
On the pot odds direct=immediate to call turn bet to see a river card is not opponent dependant.

If you are deep enough with implied odds then it will depend if the villain type pays you with their one or two pair or set relative to your straight or flush.

Pot odds to see one card:
flush 4-1
open ended straight 5-1
gut shot straight 11-1
gut shot and flush draw 3-1

The maths are the same for nit|tag|station they bet 20 on the turn into 100 (bad imo) but we are getting 6-1 not good for a gut shot which we shouldn't be chasing anyway.

How would we play the hand against the villain types by raising flop or turn bets? We can get into trouble value owning ourselves by semi-bluffing then it gets very confusing (for me) with reverse implied odds.


Sorry about doing direct odds. Dave explained implied odds as a total of available effective money. Then "it depends" how much will the villain pay?

Last edited by ForrestFive; Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 08:43 PM..
 
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Sun Apr 27, 2014, 11:08 PM
(#5)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Quote:
Originally Posted by ForrestFive View Post
On the pot odds direct=immediate to call turn bet to see a river card is not opponent dependant.
Almost every decision on the felt is opponent(s) dependant. Since the no-brainer is uncommon, one must seek situations with an overlay which covers the uncertainty in our read. The immediate/direct odds are only the starting point.

The OPs question was about immediate odds to call not the odds of hitting the draw. To decide if an action is viable a player must consider other factors. For instance, non-nut draws are less valuable than nut draws, so they should have a higher overlay.
 
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Mon Apr 28, 2014, 12:14 AM
(#6)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
OP: "Just in case, please don’t answer direct odds, but implied odds answer."

My terminology isn't good I thought direct=immediate odds and implied odds is like your "seek situations with an overlay"?

That is a situation and opponent reads dependant, with the money behind in the effective stack? I think we agree or maybe I'm confused on what things mean now.

In my example facing a $20 bet into $100 pot on the turn, if we are $1K deep, it's a bit of a stretch going for a gut shot on 1 river card. Edit: Maybe a 20 - 1000 bet.

Even with two overs and nut flush draw #iHateCalling $1K effective stack shove and less 2-1 odds - I'm beat now?

This is the stuff I don't get yet. So it's a good thread open to many interpretations.

Last edited by ForrestFive; Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 12:58 AM.. Reason: UL missed the point - we don't know turn bet size
 
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Mon Apr 28, 2014, 08:28 AM
(#7)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
Sorry my unclear question. What I wanted to know was pot odds to call.

Wiki: "In poker, pot odds are the ratio of the current size of the pot to the cost of a contemplated call.[1] Pot odds are often compared to the probability of winning a hand with a future card in order to estimate the call's expected value."


Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
I prefer to raise the flop with most draws to seize the initiative, as being passive with draws is clearly not profitable in the long run, except against weak players that bet very small to allow you to suck out at a bargain price, and that pay off when you bink.
I go around 75% too

My raises with draws OTF are almost non existing. The reason being that if there is an obvious draw on the board; villain is always putting me on it. So what I need to do then is to shove the river (after 3 barrles), which is quite expensive. I do this with combo hands though.

What kind of players you semi bluff with a draw OTF?

I go for aggressive semi bluffing OTT when I feel that villain is weak, that saves bit money.

Last edited by braveslice; Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 08:31 AM..
 
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Mon Apr 28, 2014, 01:22 PM
(#8)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,363
Quote:
Originally Posted by braveslice View Post
What kind of players you semi bluff with a draw OTF?

I go for aggressive semi bluffing OTT when I feel that villain is weak, that saves bit money.
Semi-bluff raises work pretty well against LAGS/TAGs that c-bet often, especially on boards their range likely missed. (If they bet very often, they have air pretty often, ldo).

JTx boards are probably not good flops to bluff-raise, as villains at microstakes are incapable of folding 2 overs and a gutshot (e.g. AQ), which is why I kind of prefer calling pre-flop with hands like 75s and 65s rather than T9s/98s. The smaller cards connect better on flops where the PFR is likely to have missed, so your semi-bluffs have more fold equity. When the flop comes something like 862, villain is folding all unpaired hands to a raise, but even if he has an overpair, you have a decent number of outs with an OESD, especially if you have a BDFD. Whether you choose to barrel is really up to you. Sometimes you can just check behind on the turn and take the free card, and give it up as a semi-bluff gone wrong if you just have 7 high on the river. Against guys with a low WTSD number, tripling them off their hand works surprisingly well at 5NL+, especially in fast-fold formats, where villains don't like hero-calling multiple streets with one pair.

Turn semi-bluffs might work better than flop raises, as they appear stronger (especially if you play sets like that), but I play against so many short-stacks that they are usually committed after firing the turn, so it's kind of spewy to raise with a draw on the turn when you often have about 20% hand equity and even less fold equity.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Tue Apr 29, 2014, 12:23 AM
(#9)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Quote:
Originally Posted by braveslice View Post
Sorry my unclear question. What I wanted to know was pot odds to call.


From: http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/articles/Odds-and-Outs

About a minute or to search, find and paste.

Last edited by TrumpinJoe; Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 12:33 AM..
 
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Tue Apr 29, 2014, 12:46 AM
(#10)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Déjà vu

Pot odds to see one card:
flush 4-1
open ended straight 5-1
gut shot straight 11-1
gut shot and flush draw 3-1

It took me a while to understand the odds: calling turn bet to see river is the same odds as calling flop bet to see turn. It's for 1 card.

The'Flop to River' is some 2% per street rule 2 of 4 = "All-In on flop" you get double the 1 card odds with 2 to see. There is nothing implied in these odds.

Last edited by ForrestFive; Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 12:49 AM.. Reason: 1 card
 
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Tue Apr 29, 2014, 01:03 AM
(#11)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
TrumpinJoe, those are odds to make hand, not pot odds. You can compare them to pot odds you are getting.

Last edited by braveslice; Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 02:42 AM..
 
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Tue Apr 29, 2014, 07:13 PM
(#12)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Quote:
Originally Posted by braveslice View Post
TrumpinJoe, those are odds to make hand, not pot odds. You can compare them to pot odds you are getting.
Duh!

Is there a different point to begin? The best place to begin is the beginning. Then separate your outs from the 'doubts' and discounts the doubts. Next consider the probability of being paid off when you hit and add an overlay and you have the odds (pot, implied or effective) neded for your call.

But these or passive/defensive odds. I much prefer to use them offensively/aggressively to influence opponents to make mistakes.
 
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Wed Apr 30, 2014, 03:39 AM
(#13)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
I do agree that it’s a good starting point, the rest of your post kind of summed up what to think next.

This really should not remove the fact that against standard villains we should have about the same standard plan. Anything else is a) suboptimal – because at the heat of the moment we don’t come with great plan; usually b) Takes brain power away from other hands we play

And yes, playing aggressive is one way to go, but now I’m asking the price to call.

And I do agree your point to have effective stacks accounted too. The point I did not include it, was assumption of standard 100bb play. If we call pre, and call flop (as is standard play when planning to call turn) there is still around 40-60bb left to play.
 
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Wed Apr 30, 2014, 10:07 PM
(#14)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Other information that would improve the assessment of the hands:
There poker "awareness": Are they studying the table or playing just there cards?
The quality of the draw and the texture of the board.
Who has positional advantage?
What the hero's image, assuming the villain is aware of it?

Poker is a game of incomplete information. Those who can gather and utilize the best come out ahead.
 

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