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Winrate chalange for 6max NL2 ZOOM winner and NL5 sucker.

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Winrate chalange for 6max NL2 ZOOM winner and NL5 sucker. - Mon Apr 28, 2014, 04:20 AM
(#1)
A Beatmaker's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 74
Background off challenge. Everybody say that NL2 or NL5 or NL10 is no difference. Well it is...

My last 100K NL2 Zooom 6max graph (3tabling):


Winrate 7.41 bb/100. EV 10.44 bb/100

My last 100K NL5 Zooom 6max graph(3-4tabling):


Winrate 0.81/100. EV 2.45 bb/100


I'm not the only one. The guy from this forum Praydk has same -7/100bb win-rate drop down then moving from NL2 to NL5. So I decided to offer him a challenge/bet who makes bigger win rate increase in other 100K hands to have more motivation to work on improving game. But it seams that Praydk now is busy with some other works for i while. I decided not to sleep and start alone this improvement and maybe he will join me latter or in the next 100K hands.

So my goal is to increase winrate in next 100K hands in finally lift off my poker rocket to NL5 ZOOM saafely.

How im gona increase my NL2 ZOOM winrate. My guess would be:

Time selecting i guess it might add 2-3 bb/100
working out, tilt control , time management, good sleep 1-2bb/100
Learn new things find new leaks 1bb/100.
Change table number on Zoom then focus changing. 1bb/100.
My gueesing of increasing winrates always to optimistic -66% bb/100
__________________________________________________ _

+5bb-7bb/100 * 0.33 = 1.5-2.5bb/100

Time frame don't mater but its starts today 28 April. I guess it should take 5 weeks or more, we focusing on quality not quantity.

If result will be EV ADJUSTED 10 or less I will cry. ;(
If result will be EV ADJUSTED 11 I will be OK something like:|
If result will be EV ADJUSTED 12 i will move to NL5.
If result will be EV ADJUSTED 13 I will be happy and misssion was done well.
If result will be EV ADJUSTED 17 or more it will be best day in 2014 my poker careeer in i will send that graff to my ex boss.

I try to post graph every 10K hands and in the end if I succeed reveal what improved my game the most.

Last edited by A Beatmaker; Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 04:40 AM..
 
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Mon Apr 28, 2014, 01:38 PM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,316
Good luck with this. I'm finding there is a fairly big difference between 10NL and 5NL on the network I'm playing at the moment. There's just a much tougher reg:fish ratio.
My sample size is much smaller than yours, so I'll keep plugging away, but I think it might actually be more profitable for me to grind 5NL instead of 10NL, because my winrate (so far) is more than twice as good at the lower stake.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Tue Apr 29, 2014, 04:44 AM
(#3)
A Beatmaker's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 74
Thanks.

Whats winrates are at NL5 and at NL10?


If we take that winrate diferences beatwean skaes are 7bb/100 and rakeback 1bb/100 then moving from NL2 to NL5 its profitable then you have 11bb/100 winrate. If diferences beatwean NL5 and NL10 is -7bb/100 then its profitable move the winrate at NL5 is better than 13bb/100 but I gues diferences is something like -6bb/100 so most profitable moving up then winrate bigger tan 11bb/100.

Weel my 5moth old NL10 graph 4tabling:


EV AJUSTED -4bb/100

Of course we shoudnt forget that when we in higer stakes we forsed to learn faster. Do we ? So mabbe its bbeter move then winrate sometring like 10bb/100 or at least we can do shots when we reatch winrate 6bb/100.

This year one tabling shot at NL10, small sample:



I am still learning ― Michelangelo, at age 87.
I am still learning - Beatmaker at 87$ in NL10

Last edited by A Beatmaker; Tue Apr 29, 2014 at 04:49 AM..
 
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Mon May 05, 2014, 12:00 PM
(#4)
A Beatmaker's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 74
OK first 10K pack comes here.

1)In the middle week noticed that volume wery low due 2 Tabling ant preventing from playing when Im tired . I realized that chalenge might take ages so made some adjustments.Decided add 1 table and play anytime but EET 11-16. Intresting that Poker stars usualyy do server restart at EET 14. I guess because off traffic been lowest. I guess at that time bigest ratio beatwean regs and recreational players.

2)Also started ply deep not realaod then racing 125-150 BB mark to get more value. Unfortunately still had 5 big pots and lost 4 off them (people seems more coutios then they deep stacked) so that decision added -2$ still. I believe in future it pay off (cameon winrate 10BB I should have edge!). Need to review all hands.


3.) Today analyzed all feald situations then players on 2 bet goes all in. Its a big pots so we should be so precise ass possible. Seams more profitable to call little wider than I thought. Such situations comes about every 100 hands. so I guess I will have +0,5bb/1bb in future.


4) Stated to plai more vs limper. isolate wider do not limp behind small pocket pairs how it impacts EV will see in future.

5) Good news everyone. Because I'm concentrate to EV line All in runnouts dont bother me so I'm now more calm at table.

So results are:




WINRATE EV JUSTED 13bb/100

Im glad with results. But small sample size to do any judgments. Theoretically my real winrate at this point could be somewhere between ~ -14bb/100 to +40bb/100 (99% confidence interval).

Last edited by A Beatmaker; Mon May 05, 2014 at 12:12 PM..
 
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Fri May 09, 2014, 11:14 AM
(#5)
A Beatmaker's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 74
Another 10K pack comes.

What kinda off improvments:

1) Started tagging recreational players as much as possible. Found out about Binomial distribution so reduced Hud showing hand sample from 100 to 20. Also dindt missed other opportunities to tag Recreational players. Limp ? Recreational. 3bet small ? Recreational. Min bet posflop ?Recreational. went to showdown with strange holding ? Recreational.Recreational.Recreational.Recreationa l. So in the end off the weak tables were filed of recreational players.

2) Also started bet more than standard or even overbeting versus them (Recreational ones) in certain spots. Fat value baby! In the beging was kinda overused but in the end of the week it paid off.

3) Today studied fields checking ranges in NL10. So added new things to strategy (thin value also double triple barreling in some spots) . I guess that might add 0.1bb/100 to winrate in future.

Future plans: Study Donk bet ranges on Turn River and 3beted pots, find out how play TPWK in multiway pots, also i thing am overplaying draws, need to check them. And later to chek Regs how to exploit them. And reduce volume on mondays and tuesdays.


By the way during non premium time started to make mini chalenge on Full tilt. Im learning to play unexploited with one program (I dont know its alowed or not to mention non pokerstars products in this forum so I don't) And try to see what kinda winrate it produse at NL2 6max Zoom Full tilt. A lot off people says that you should play exploitably and so on I agree. But I guess it might help in future in higher stakes. Also I will forse think difrently and find new things. It already made little inpact to my main strategy (C-Beting IP with TP blokers). I believe its going to be kinda fun because game will look diferently. I always exited and cant wait to try new learnened things on tables. Because I dont wanna lose fun, time and rool I dont set any strick volume frames. It might be 1K it might be 20K. Will see in future.


So results are.



EV ajusted 16bb/100. UP UP UP UP. Waiting for jucy saturday and sunday.

Last edited by A Beatmaker; Fri May 09, 2014 at 11:31 AM..
 
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Sun May 18, 2014, 11:20 AM
(#6)
A Beatmaker's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 74
3 thats the magic number:

Whats new:

1. Whatched all xflixx zoom video where he played aded new things to strategy. Like playng when overcard hits turn.

2. realesed that hand reading skill coul be used not also on bluuff but on bluff cathing and value beting thinly. So started more bet thinly.

3 . Analised limpers tendencied postflop seems they are quite tight.

4. Hited first big downswing Whole week I were downswinging suprisingly i did les mistakaes than in previuos 10K hands. But pisichologicaly was hard to make volume and be concentraded. So it took litle bit longers. But variance happens so... Maybee Neeed to inprove write some encoregments witch I will read next time on downswing or something. Also made filtering (for example hands TT+AK+) withch whole winrate was sometnig like 50bb and saw that even there was 5Bi downswing. Not looking at results is also option but its hard not notice that your stak entire sesion 100 bb Also thinking about independent mistakes intetifing sistem for example filtering chance to open pot and fold certain range( seams forgoting to open a lot low AX and X9 hands on BT and SB this adds -0.6bb/100 to winrate).

Future plans:

Analise regs. 4way pots. Improve hand reading.

So my great canyon is:


EV Ajusted -5.7 bb/100. Theoreticali real winrate could be beatwean 9.8bb/100 and -19.80 bb/100 (95% confidence). Well we will see...

Last edited by A Beatmaker; Sun May 18, 2014 at 12:20 PM..
 
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Sun May 18, 2014, 11:35 AM
(#7)
royalraise85's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 26,019
(Community Coordinator)
Great thread A Beatmaker, enjoying your posts

Best of luck with the challenge.

Raiser


Moderator

Bracelet Winner


 
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Thu May 22, 2014, 05:47 AM
(#8)
A Beatmaker's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 74
Thanks royalraise85. Sometimes I think that I am here talking alone with myself. But its not bad to talk withh smart personn. Joke.

So 10K again. Whats new:

1. A guess It might be bigest "Aha" moment this year reding this Danis "Ansky" Sterns advice to play heads Up. **deleted link per TOS JWK24** It blown my mind. Its sad that there is now nano stakes for heads up so i tried HU Sng. Read few tips for starting ranges (BT Open 100% SB 20%call 3Bet like 14%) and jumped right in. Change was fascinating. Now I didn't had Card advantage vs Villain because I were forced to play all my cards and started thinking about counter strategies against each opponent in each hand how to make fold better hands and extract more value with strong ones. Because if you don`t think like that money just will move from one side to another. There was times like A high was value bet or folding two pair was right decisions. One guy all streets all times min beted and made me tilt. I didn't figured out in mach how to counter it but i were exited because I were learning, I really felt that i were underdog and how that feeling tilted me (That feeling reminded my first times at internet poker tables. Now I now how recretional player feals when you losing and you know that you bad its so annoying ). Next day I jumped rigt in to 6max regular tables and started play crazy like 50 VPIP game made tilt some regs (3beting every single hand) and make big mistakes that pay off my spewiness. In the end of day I managed to end 0$. Next day analysed few 6max regular speed regs and write dont as more ass posible couter strategies agaist them than sited on tables with them. I was lucky to get heads Up with one plaed some hands.It was something like seeing them hole cards.In 1000 hand made like 10 Buyins, red line on 0$. Next day made some balance to my strategy and Come something like VPIP 40/PFR 30/ 7. Made standard nothing special maby my unlimited agresion last day drove my opponents crazy maybe its just variance.

Analyzed few NL2 ZOOM Regs. Just looked few but impression taht nobody bluff on Turn or River NEVER PERIOD. Also same applies in bet sizing preflop or opstflop. One guy always open 3x but 4X Acess. So if villain bets big have better than TP if small weak Air or draw. But its just first impresions need to analyze more to get feeling on field and i guess to separate Regs and Nits witch fall in love with their holdings. Also need to think how faster to analyze regs because now it takes hour or two to analize and think counter strategies. I guess over time I naturally get quicker and also will perfect my analyzing system (not to look at stats and then all hands that went to showdown and just filter by made hands or postflop moves).

So during that period simplified and improved Hand reading. Started get alms with my secon pairs and 33% beting. I Used to be saying in my mind like "AK, AQ, AJ, AT, KK, QQ, JJ, TT..." Now I just say "AX Poket Pairs 8X 6X Draws" or if cheeked something like "Weak to pair second pair draw air". Didint mutch underload brains. Af course then I get 3beted its kinda eazy to name all exact hands. Talking about exact hands. I overjoied my hand reading abilities and went in to kind a dumb sitution. Villain opens other 3bets his 3beting stats is 2% I think "OK You 3bet AA, KK or AK I have AQ so you more likely holding AK then KK lets call and see flop". I call and other guy calls. 3way T High pot and He bet and I "ohhhh game over baby" then desperately switched to Daniel Neagranu style I type in chat twice "You have KK?????" "KK !!!" (guy had allowed search feature so I saw that he siting on on table, more likely that he will see) And I jamed.... He folded. After few seconds I relised how much I were dumb. First off all I were risking to much chips and also calling preflop AA, KK, AK with AQ is so dominated if Ace high bord you sominated if Q high you extracting from AK just one stret (so call much better with 65s). Other thing he might didn't saw chat. Other thing he is so Nit that he might falled in love with his starting hand and cant let go. Also he might were holding AA about 30%-33% of times. Off coure if he had KK and daw chat I think I might scare shit off him. From my little experience then peole asking "do you have A9" On A96 bord means they have less stronger but near hand (exactly A 6) and are afraid. So wont do this again. maybe on regular table then see guy is chating and have better counter holdings...

Future Plans:

To play on regular table in non premium times because I need money.
Improve my looser style on regular tables that coud use on Zoom .
Analyse more and more regs.
Mayby to take couching session.

So graph didint improved, but my feal of game a lot, just need to way or maybee work harder...

EV Ajusted 10.6 bb/100. Theoreticali real winrate could be beatwean -5.80 BB/100 and 27.00 BB/100 (95% confidence).

Last edited by JWK24; Thu May 22, 2014 at 09:10 AM..
 

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