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Call or Fold River

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Call or Fold River - Mon Apr 28, 2014, 06:31 PM
(#1)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
Is it a call on river or fold?

And did I made a mistake by checking the turn?

Full Tilt Poker Game #34179493671: MiniFTOPS Event #17 (Day 1b) (264531901), Table 22 - NL Hold'em - 100/200 Ante 20 - 03:45:56 IST - 2014/04/29 [18:15:56 ET - 2014/04/28]
Seat 1: tjavicbc (10,334)
Seat 2: JaSt152 (5,680)
Seat 3: grigorq77 (8,440)
Seat 4: coolerman4545 (7,259)
Seat 5: KINGPOKER613 (31,271)
Seat 6: dbones6 (13,804)
Seat 7: adikumar2010 (4,902)
Seat 8: kittiesgomah (15,255)
tjavicbc antes 20
JaSt152 antes 20
grigorq77 antes 20
coolerman4545 antes 20
KINGPOKER613 antes 20
dbones6 antes 20
adikumar2010 antes 20
kittiesgomah antes 20
tjavicbc posts the small blind of 100
JaSt152 posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to adikumar2010 [3c 3h]
grigorq77 folds
coolerman4545 folds
KINGPOKER613 calls 200
dbones6 folds
adikumar2010 calls 200
kittiesgomah folds
tjavicbc has 15 seconds left to act
tjavicbc has 87 seconds to reconnect
DontTryBullyMe sits down
tjavicbc has timed out
tjavicbc folds
tjavicbc is sitting out
JaSt152 checks
*** FLOP *** [5s 6c 4h] (Total Pot: 860, 3 Players)
JaSt152 checks
KINGPOKER613 checks
adikumar2010 has 15 seconds left to act
adikumar2010 has requested TIME
adikumar2010 bets 354
JaSt152 calls 354
KINGPOKER613 calls 354
*** TURN *** [5s 6c 4h] [2s] (Total Pot: 1,922, 3 Players)
JaSt152 checks
KINGPOKER613 checks
adikumar2010 checks
*** RIVER *** [5s 6c 4h 2s] [8h] (Total Pot: 1,922, 3 Players)
JaSt152 bets 1,922
KINGPOKER613 has 15 seconds left to act
KINGPOKER613 raises to 3,844
adikumar2010 - ??


STATS :
 
Old
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Mon Apr 28, 2014, 07:05 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,819
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi adikumar2010!

With 33, when I get a limp in front of me, since the stacks are deep enough to setmine (15X the bet in everyone's stack), I'm more than happy to call and hope to flop a 3.

I flop the bottom end of an OESD and have the opps check to me. Here, I have two choices. I can either check and hope to hit the straight on the turn or I can make a standard value bet. Bets postflop need to be sized based on the size of the pot, number of opps and board texture. With 2 opps in the hand, a standard bet is 2/3 pot, so if I want to bet, I need to bet 574. If I bet, I need to make it look like I have a made hand already. Players that make smaller than normal bets are normally on a draw and this is very easily detected by an observant opp. When some one makes a small bet like this, if I'm the opp, I'm going to raise with any made hand and if I do so, the player with the draw will not be able to profitably call my raise.

I turn a straight, but now there is the danger of a flush draw, along with possible higher straight draws. When the opps check to me, I absolutely need to bet 2/3 pot. If I bet less than this or check, then I'm giving the opps the correct odds to try to outdraw me.. and if they do so, it's my own fault that I lose the hand.

The river creates a problem, as any opp with 7x now has me beat. Here is why I must bet the flop and the turn. If I make a 2/3 pot bet on both streets, then the opp was getting the wrong odds to try to outdraw me and will lose chips to me on average each and every time. Because the bets were smaller or checks, the opp can now very easily have me beat.
Due to the first opp now making a pot-sized bet and then the other opp min-raises them.... one of them should have a 7 and have me beat. With this being the case, I need to fold.

The keys with this hand though are not on the river, it's on the flop and turn.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
Old
Default
Mon Apr 28, 2014, 07:42 PM
(#3)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
Thanks John, you explained everything very nicely and in complete detail. Can't ask for better and deeper analysis than this.
 

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