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Big 11$ set on wet board

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Big 11$ set on wet board - Tue Apr 29, 2014, 12:21 AM
(#1)
scarface763's Avatar
Since: Oct 2013
Posts: 107
we were on the money , and i have a pretty decent stack above average. i dont have many stats on the villian despite he is a regular with decent winnings in mtts and in the hands i have seen of him he were very nuted in showdown.
I think my play is bad because at this stage i should have realized that he were too strong and nuted, what part of his range does i beat? air? the ace os spades? isnt enough to play for stacks so deep in my opinion, but that shove in the turn is very strange, a shove for value?
I dont think this could be analysed as a simple cooler, because we have to do big laydowns sometimes. but want your feedbacik, feel free to comment.
 
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Tue Apr 29, 2014, 12:17 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,788
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Hi scarface763!

With 66 from UTG+1, I have two choices. I can either make a standard raise (which for me is to 2.2BB) or I could fold if the table is playing very aggressive.

I flop bottom set on a VERY wet board and the opp leads into me. The sizing of this bet is the first red flag that I see, as they're sizing their bet at 2/3 pot (what they need to size it at in order to price out someone drawing at them... signaling a made hand). Most opps when drawing will try to size their bet much smaller (a bit tell that can be used against them), but this opp is not. Since this bet is the same sizing that I would use if it was checked to me and due to the fact that I'm in position, I'm just going to call.
If the opp had made a smaller bet, then I would raise by 2/3 pot.

The turn is a blank and the opp open-shoves. Since the opp has bet like they have a made hand (and seems to be a smarter MTT player), the most likely holdings are a straight or a flush. If they have either, then I have 10 outs to improve on the river (20% equity). I need to call 101044 into a pot that will be 241688 (41.8% pot equity). Since my pot equity is much higher than my hand equity, I need to fold to this shove.

Yes, there is a very small % of the time that the opp can have air here (or a bigger set where we're basically drawing dead), but if the opp was drawing, they are most likely not donk betting 2/3 pot on the flop. This bet is the key one for me, saying that they have a made hand (especially from a solid player, as a draw is most likely checking to the preflop raiser). Even if they had a combination draw, the shove on the turn is basically going to value-own the opp, so it is not a play that I would want to make.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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