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Rule of 2 and 4

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Rule of 2 and 4 - Tue Apr 29, 2014, 02:08 PM
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P3ch44's Avatar
Since: Apr 2014
Posts: 4
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OK...so I looked at the Courses pages and came upon the Rule of 2 and 4. This does seem to be a very good idea for beginners or for quickly calculating your odds.

The page is quite confusing...it starts by saying the following:-

'After a flop has been dealt, count your outs, then multiply that number by two to determine the percentage of making your hand on the turn, or four, to determine your chance of making it by the river.'

However, in the next paragraph it states: -

'To put it another way: multiply by four if two cards are still to come, or two for only one card.'

It then goes on to say: -

'On the Flop: 8*4 = 32% (with 2 cards to come)
On the Turn: 8*2 = 16% (with 1 card to come)'

Followed by: -

'meaning you have 15 outs in total. That represents a 30 per cent chance of getting there by the turn and 60 per cent by the river.'

Trust me I am not knocking the site as I have found some very good information and ideas on how to improve my game. It is very well set up and is a gem for not only beginners but also Professionals.

I am just slightly confused.

Am I right in saying that after the flop you multiply your outs by 4 and after the turn you multiply your outs by 2? This would make sense due to the fact that after the flop you have 2 more cards which improves your chances as opposed to 1 more after the turn.

Again, great site with great advice, information and the ability to talk things through. I am sure there are many other benefits to the site that I have not yet discovered as I have only been a member for less than 24 hours
 
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Tue Apr 29, 2014, 02:50 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
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Here's the simplified version...

if you can be facing more betting on the turn, each out is worth 2%, so take your outs and multiply by 2% to get your hand equity.

if there will be no turn betting (all-in), then since I'd be guaranteed to see both the turn and river cards, each out is worth 4% equity.

ex: I have an OESD (8 outs). My hand is worth 16% equity if there can be turn betting OR 32% if either me or the opp is all-in (so I'd be guaranteed to see both the turn and river)

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Tue Apr 29, 2014, 04:52 PM
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Hello P3ch44

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Wed Apr 30, 2014, 04:08 AM
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braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
I do remember that learning rule of 2 and 4 was difficult. The reason really is not that the subject is difficult, but somehow it goes to the poker jargon one is not really familiar jet.

Basically if you are not all in, you should generally use only the rule of 2. The rule of 2 tells your odds to make a hand next street.

Sometimes, for example when you go AI, or plan to go AI on the flop, you can use rule of 4 (rule of making your hand during next 2 streets)

Btw, youtube is full of explanations for this rule, after 10 different videos it might open a bit better.
 
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Wed Apr 30, 2014, 06:26 AM
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baud2death's Avatar
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Posts: 1,249
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Yeah its pretty simple once you use it often

Remember to only worry about 1 street, unless you are planning to get it on the flop, 1 street at a time is your plan, no need to stress about Runner/Runner outs

Just write down the common outs that you will consider drawing to (anything other than these is very conditional or is so low you will likely never have odds to draw to them competitivly)

9 outs = Flush Draw with 2 suited cards
4 outs = Gutshot Straight Draw (such as holding 9-8 and board is 5-6-X and you need the 7)
[also called an Inside Straight Draw]
8 outs = Open Ended Straight Draw (such as holding 9-8 and board is 7-6-X and you need the Ten or 5 to make it)

These 3 are your most common ones.
Drawing to two pair is less common since although it is a strong made hand, drawing it is nice but drawing to it is usually a losing proposition
Drawing to a full-house or quads is more of a conditional spot where you realize once the money gets in that you are behind to a straight/flush and you need to improve.. since you already got it in, its less of a concern typically

There are also combo draws which mean that if you feel you are 9-8 of clubs on a 2 club board with a 9 and you are thinking you are behind to an overpair. Your combo draw is still one of the top draws (flush) with 9 outs but you also can improve to two pair (3 outs) or a set (2 outs) for a total of 14 outs. This again is conditional because you are calculating 1/3 of your outs are assuming you know what your opponent has, rather than the flush draw which beats pretty much anything unless a pair shows or a better flush is out there.


So just figure out if it is flush or straight you are drawing to, figure out if it is 4, 8 or 9 outs in question and then its 8%, 16% or 18% per street, should you need to get it on the flop then its 16%, 32% or 36% on the flop.

Hope that helps
 
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Wed Apr 30, 2014, 10:16 AM
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Pep68's Avatar
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Posts: 17
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Need a like button for the feedback on this thread. Very useful!!
 
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simple,simple,simple - Thu May 01, 2014, 10:21 AM
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thephoenix11's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 186
Rule of 2 and 4.

The Rule of 4 should only ever be applied when you are on the flop facing an all in bet. All other times you use the rule of 2. simple as that.
 
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Thu May 01, 2014, 01:49 PM
(#8)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
Quote:
Originally Posted by thephoenix11 View Post
Rule of 2 and 4.

The Rule of 4 should only ever be applied when you are on the flop facing an all in bet. All other times you use the rule of 2. simple as that.
Well, that is a good starting point but surely not the only exception.
 
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Thu May 01, 2014, 02:05 PM
(#9)
thephoenix11's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 186
Quote:
Originally Posted by braveslice View Post
Well, that is a good starting point but surely not the only exception.
It is the only exception.

"Important – You rarely actually multiply by 4.

Even though it’s call the “rule of 4 and 2”, it should really be called the “rule of 2 (and 4 on rare occasions)”, but that’s obviously less catchy. Too many players make the mistake of using the 4 rule on the flop every time, and they lose a lot of money because of it.

The only time you should ever multiply your outs by 4 is when you are on the flop and your opponent has moved all-in. Therefore, you do not expect to face another bet on the turn that will force you to pay more to try and complete your draw.

Basically, always look to multiply your outs by 2 when you are on the flop or the turn to get your correct percentage odds. In the unlikely event that your opponent moves all-in on the flop, then you can dust off the rule of 4 and enjoy its company for a brief moment."

This is taken from another website. I don't think i can post the name but i will be happy to pm it if required.

When faced with a possible bet on the turn the odds are different as to a straight up all in on the flop. It can be the difference between having good odds and having bad odds without realising it.

Unless your opponent is all in on the flop then you use the rule of 2 always.
 
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Thu May 01, 2014, 02:57 PM
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braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
I know at least two clear exceptions, and if I know 2 there has to be at least 100.


first exception:
You are planning to go AI on the flop. Villain bets, you are going AI (or just plain raise) because you have enough odds. Rule of 4.

second exception:
Because villain is passive (for example cbet 75, turn cb 28), you will call flop, knowing that you have good odds to to get free river. You go with the rule of 4.

Last edited by braveslice; Thu May 01, 2014 at 03:06 PM..
 
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Thu May 01, 2014, 03:08 PM
(#11)
thephoenix11's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 186
Quote:
Originally Posted by braveslice View Post
I know at least two clear exceptions, and if I know 2 there has to be at least 100.


first exception:
You are planning to go AI on the flop. Villain bets, you are going AI because you have enough odds. Rule of 4.

second exception:
Because villain is passive (for example cbet 75, turn cb 30), you will call flop, knowing that you have good odds to to get free river. You go with the rule of 4.
Your first exception is an all in situation. You are planning to go all in so use the rule of 4. It is not an added exception it is a role reversal.

Your second exception is highly subjective.
You can never be sure what an opponent is going to do and as such to maintain a profitable long game you should use the rule of 2 even if you are confident of a checked turn.

I suppose it could be an exception but it's massively situational and depends on your read of the individual.

As i said my quote was from another site and for the broad spectrum, especially for a beginner it should be followed.

I would say your exceptions are for an proficient player minimum.

But these forums are here for differing opinions
 
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Thu May 01, 2014, 03:28 PM
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baud2death's Avatar
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Posts: 1,249
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i really don't get the confusion here

If you are getting your money in on the flop and the decision to either get it in or the precursor decision to get it in (ie you raise knowing that if he re-raises you will be getting it in) is when you have 2 streets (ie 2% per street, 4%) to calculate.

That is the ONLY time you need to factor it in.

I really don't understand your 2nd exception and the only way that could apply is if you know that they will check the turn, this factors into +level thinking like implied odds and to be honest, if you are thinking along those lines anyway, why would you need a rule or 4 and 2.. you are already leveled enough to be able to count your outs to the 2nd decimal!

The OP was having difficulty getting to grips with rule of 2/4, why over complicate it.

2% per street to come when ALL of the money gets in.

Doesn't need to be any more complicated than that
 
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Thu May 01, 2014, 04:24 PM
(#13)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
Quote:
Originally Posted by baud2death View Post
i really don't get the confusion here
As I said that is a great starting point. But, really, why make it over simple. If he can formulate the the question he surely is no simpleton.

Would you call flush nut flush draw with only 2 x rule? (Edited: better- raise flush draw - seems more clear example)

Last edited by braveslice; Thu May 01, 2014 at 04:43 PM..
 
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Thu May 01, 2014, 04:49 PM
(#14)
thephoenix11's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 186
It is a great starting point. And the guy is asking for simple. K.I.S.S.

Keep it simple to start with. Especially to clarify then if he's ready for more he will ask.

Your example if i'm on the flop with nut flush draw facing a bet then yes it's rule of 2 to the turn.

Pot is $30 and opponent bets $10. pot odds are 20%. nut flush draw to turn is 18%. Nut flush draw to river is 36%. The odds on the flop to get to turn are not there and there's another bet to come.

But you call the $10 and now we're at the turn with a $50 pot. Villain bets $25 (half pot) pot odds are 25% ($100 pot including your call) and odds from turn to river are 18%. The Odds aren't there and as such, in the long run, this is a losing play.

If you fold on the flop with pot odds of 20% and flop to turn odds of 18% it is the correct long run play and as such saves you money.

Unless you are way advanced in your thinking and understanding of either your opponent or implied odds etc etc then keeping it simple. Or over simple as you put it saves you money in the long run until you are at the level where you can think about the other things.

P.S. being able to ask a question does not show ability to understand a complicated answer.

changing the example to raise flush draw is heading off topic altogether really. Bet sizing, position, strength of hand, opponents range all come into play then.

Last edited by thephoenix11; Thu May 01, 2014 at 04:54 PM.. Reason: just seen the edit
 
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Thu May 01, 2014, 05:00 PM
(#15)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
Quote:
Originally Posted by thephoenix11 View Post
P.S. being able to ask a question does not show ability to understand a complicated answer.
Totally disagree =) I have been teacher most of my life and one thing common about not stupid people has been that they can formulate questions.

One thing common with stupid people has been that they can come up reasons why things are complicated, so maybe I’m one of those.
 
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Thu May 01, 2014, 05:03 PM
(#16)
thephoenix11's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 186
i can only lol this :P

so basically if i can ask a question i'm clever. if i think the answer is complicated i'm stupid.

Right from now on i only ask questions

Last edited by thephoenix11; Thu May 01, 2014 at 05:06 PM..
 
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Thu May 01, 2014, 05:23 PM
(#17)
braveslice's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 568
Deleted.

(off topic, not poker related)

Last edited by braveslice; Fri May 02, 2014 at 04:54 AM..
 
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Thu May 01, 2014, 05:56 PM
(#18)
thephoenix11's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 186
Quote:
Originally Posted by braveslice View Post
Deleted.
what does deleted mean? i seen something about "show me questions" and something about iq but it's gone
 
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Thu May 01, 2014, 06:50 PM
(#19)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Quote:
Originally Posted by braveslice View Post
second exception:
Because villain is passive (for example cbet 75, turn cb 28), you will call flop, knowing that you have good odds to to get free river. You go with the rule of 4.
How often does a passive player lead two streets?

The Rule of Four is among the most misused concepts in poker. The smaller mistake is to not use it enough as overusing it is a huge mistake. Making good poker decisions is hard enough without unnecessary complications.

YMMV!
 
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Fri May 02, 2014, 03:01 AM
(#20)
baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
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I had to snip out a big ranty post but this thread is getting very much off the subject

I feel this has been answered, can we leave it at that?
 

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