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5nl - My biggest thrashing to date!

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5nl - My biggest thrashing to date! - Wed Apr 30, 2014, 08:21 AM
(#1)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
Hi guys,

Just thought I would share this with you guys - as it really does make me feel better.

This is my biggest downswing to date. I will also post the biggest pots that I have lost, and maybe you guys could tell me if this really is a downswing, or not.

Well please see below my 5nl graph below, with the thrashing that has occurred highlighted within the red circle.



Because of the downswing?? I was running at 5bb/100 and ow running at 3bb/100

This downswing represents a 6 ($5) buy-in loss - probably not much compared to some people; however, since I am new to 5nl, seeing my bankroll drop this much ($30) doesn't feel great - when you are not used to it.

Here below are some of the hands that has caused this to happen. Some bad beats (I think) and some coolers/bad luck (I think). Other contributions are from the red line.

Hand 1



With this hand, I could 3bet this preflop (dependent on reads). I hit a set and re-raise is in order given my hand strength, board texture, and stuff. bad beat given that I was ahead.


Hand 2



This AK is not a bad beat because I was always behind. When villain calls my preflop raise, and then an A comes out on the flop, I am not expecting to see him hold AA!



Hand 3



Not sure with this hand. With the holding that I had on this flop I couldn't put him on a set or a straight draw, so I thought I was good here. The mistake I might have made was not to re-raise on the flop. villain got there in the end with only having 5 outs.

There is also a ton of AK hands where I have 3bet preflop and got called by villains, cbet the flop when missed, and villains didn't want to fold.


I guess the downswing is nothing really, when a 5bb/100 winning player will have an 80% chance of experiencing a 5.5 buy-in downswing over a sample size of 40,000 hands, but however, that depends on if it really is an unlucky downswing (bad beats & bad luck), and not bad play.


Cheers,

Matt

Last edited by pullin1988; Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 11:35 AM..
 
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Wed Apr 30, 2014, 10:44 AM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,359
All 3 hands are coolers. I'm losing a stack every time.

It's really horrible when you have a downswing straight after moving up stakes, because - for example - losing 4 buyins at 5NL amounts to 10 buyins of 2NL, and it's horrible to think about how much grinding you need to do to recoup the losses.

It's something you just have to grit your teeth and get through. Moving back down a level to rebuild your roll and restore your confidence is usually the best idea, especially if the downer is affecting you mentally. Right now, I'm not feeling comfortable at 10NL (barely beating it over a tiny sample) so I decided to stick with 5NL for a bit longer so that I have more of a roll to take an extended shot at 10NL in the future. If you want to see some "typical" downswings, check out Sam's thread. Her 9 buy-in downswings at 10NL are somewhat "standard", even for long-term winners, but are not for the feint of heart. Playing over-rolled can help you cope with swings like that.


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Wed Apr 30, 2014, 10:52 AM
(#3)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,359
P.S. Your redline is slightly worrying. Can you run a filter "Saw showdown = no" and find out what your loss rate is? If it's worse than something like -20bb/100 you might be leaking some unnecessary money. How to fix it would probably involve some database analysis, and might be a good thing for a coach/trainer to have a look at.


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Wed Apr 30, 2014, 11:15 AM
(#4)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
Hi Arty,

I have set my filter to "did not see a showdown" and loss rate is -9.62bb/100. How does that look in terms of non-showdown stuff? Am I doing better than average, or is it still a concern?

my non-showdown rate EP to BTN is +3.5bb/100
my non-showdown rate SB to BB is -55bb/100

I undestand that when I am in the blinds I am not doing so well.

If that lose rate is ok, then why do you think it looks bad in your eyes?

did you mean my loss rate for just the downswing, or overall?

As the stats above are for overall.


Also, that graph above is just for 5nl, so any loss at 5nl that I have made has come out of the profit that I have made at 5nl.


Thanks for your input Arty, it is much appreciated!

Cheers,

Matt

Last edited by pullin1988; Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 11:23 AM..
 
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Wed Apr 30, 2014, 12:53 PM
(#5)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
The bit in the red circle amounts to about 3,000 hands?

If I see it right then it is likely just short term variance rather than a significant downswing. It can, and will, go up in similar fashions as you continue to play more and more. I have had, quite insane swings during sessions, often finding myself down 5BI before finishing the session in profit. Those were longer sessions (Thousands of hands) but it still shows how quickly things can go down before rebounding.
 
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Wed Apr 30, 2014, 05:10 PM
(#6)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,359
Quote:
Originally Posted by pullin1988 View Post
I have set my filter to "did not see a showdown" and loss rate is -9.62bb/100. How does that look in terms of non-showdown stuff? Am I doing better than average, or is it still a concern?
Oh, if it's only -9bb/100 that's actually pretty damn good at full ring, I think. The scale of the graph made it seem much worse than it actually is. Many players lose much more in non-showdown pots.


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Wed Apr 30, 2014, 06:06 PM
(#7)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
If you want to see some "typical" downswings, check out Sam's thread. Her 9 buy-in downswings at 10NL are somewhat "standard", even for long-term winners, but are not for the feint of heart. Playing over-rolled can help you cope with swings like that.

Still have to go back and look at my hands - like what if my last downswing was only meant to be a small one, but I turned it into a big one with my play lol But yeah, I have a lot of ups and downs in my graph ...


Your graph looks really nice pullin - maybe next it'll go even higher than 5bb/100 (and then lower, then higher ... and then back to 5


That's a great tip to check out our non-showdown rates Arty - gonna see if I can figure out how to do that in PT

Last edited by TrustySam; Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 06:14 PM..
 
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Thu May 01, 2014, 04:33 AM
(#8)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
Thanks for the input guys/gals.

I gonna have to start commenting on other people's blogs/posts, etc; I am sometimes relucant to do so, and I feel others usually offer better advice, especially when thery are at higher stakes than me.


Cheers,

Matt
 
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Thu May 01, 2014, 10:47 AM
(#9)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,359
If it's any consolation, I'm in the midst of a 4000 hand downswing after winning at 30bb/100. #LOLvariance.


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Fri May 02, 2014, 04:44 AM
(#10)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
Cheers Arty, I hope it turns around.

I guess the best thing to do is to see the downswings in a more positive light.

For a start it keeps the fish present, but also makes you stay focused on the game - keep analysing those hands, etc. In some cases, will bring you back down to earth, when you think you are a poker god and forget about the luck element.


Cheers,

Matt
 
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Thu May 15, 2014, 05:28 AM
(#11)
MrFlopes's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 152
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
That's a great tip to check out our non-showdown rates Arty - gonna see if I can figure out how to do that in PT
Hi Trusty. If you find it please post here. Thx.
 
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Thu May 15, 2014, 11:50 AM
(#12)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Never managed to figure it out - d'oh! Anybody reading know?
 

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