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$320 Super Knockout Strategy Hand

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$320 Super Knockout Strategy Hand - Thu May 01, 2014, 10:59 AM
(#1)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Poker Stars $300+20 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 9 players - View hand 2485136
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MP2: t2950 147.50 BBs
CO: t1706 85.30 BBs
BTN: t4052 202.60 BBs
SB: t2940 147 BBs
Hero (BB): t3190 159.50 BBs
UTG: t2920 146 BBs
UTG+1: t3000 150 BBs
UTG+2: t3150 157.50 BBs
MP1: t2646 132.30 BBs

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BB with 4 6
3 folds, MP1 raises to t60, MP2 raises to t180, 3 folds, Hero raises to t555, MP1 raises to t2646, 1 fold, Hero calls t2091

Extremely interesting hand that I felt was worth having a look at.

The format of the super knockout is that $160 is awarded to anyone who stacks another player.

I'll just quote the player who made this play and we can discuss the his thought processes. This player is an extremely successful high stakes MTT pro, so I feel it could generate some cool discussion.

"Here's a situation like I was talking about in the super-knockout where I can put in a 4 bet and be committed to call off vs either opponent. The 4 bet itself is going to have some equity given there is money in the pot and when I get shoved on I am happy to call off because I am calling 2k into a pot of 3400. However, we can add 3000 chips to the odds i'm getting. So we are actually calling 2000 into 6400 and I only need about 25% equity which I should have as long as he has a certain % of non pair combos, so i'm getting the odds to call off.

This strategy will result in some early busts of course, but will also result in making a bunch of money without even cashing. And when you do win those early all ins, you'll have so much leverage over every other stack that noone can bust you, so nobody can gets that overlay from playing pots against you. You can play a lot of hands and increase your likelihood of a deep run"
 
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Fri May 02, 2014, 12:59 PM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Hi birdayy,

Interesting hand indeed. I hoped it would generate discussion but so far seems no one wants to touch it. lol

So the first thing is I'm not clear on where he's coming up with adding 3000 chips to his price to call off so only needing 25% equity. I assume he is compensating the pot for the value of the $160 super bounty, but don't see how that translates to a 3K chip impact to our equity.

I do understand the concept though, and as I've not played a super bounty mtt it's not something I've given thought to before. We pick up 270 some % of the time when they both fold, and there is some strong utility in busting someone should we end up all in and get lucky, picking up half the buy in back immediately via the super bounty and having the leverage of the biggest stack at the table to accumulate even more chips and potential bounties.

A couple thoughts:

I like his 4b sizing. It's fairly significantly larger than "standard" sizing but is well placed to accomplish his goals in this hand of:

1) increasing somewhat the % of 2 folds.
2) decreasing the ability of the villains to flat in position effectively.
3) committing himself to a better price calling off when shoved on.

The other thing is that I think this play will work better for the hero than a random, especially if the villain(s) are regs. Presumably then they would know who hero is, and that he's capable of having a wider than normal 4b range here, and would be inclined to 5b mash lighter as a result, allowing him to have better equity on the all in gamble facing more unpaired cards. A random might get credit for a much tighter range, and not get shoved nearly as lite, so they get a bit more of #1 above but are in much worse shape on #3 generally, is my guess.


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Fri May 02, 2014, 04:07 PM
(#3)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Just seen this hand, very interesting!

My first thought when reading through the HH was that this statement was quite odd:

Quote:
Originally Posted by birdayy View Post
The 4 bet itself is going to have some equity given there is money in the pot and when I get shoved on I am happy to call off because I am calling 2k into a pot of 3400. However, we can add 3000 chips to the odds i'm getting. So we are actually calling 2000 into 6400 and I only need about 25% equity which I should have as long as he has a certain % of non pair combos, so i'm getting the odds to call off.
I assume this number is some kind of fudge for the fact that we're going to get $160 immediately with a KO and that having a bigger stack will increase our chances of getting more KOs in the future. I'd be interested to know if this is based on any maths or if it is just a number he's done reverse maths with to justify his play.

Somehow you have to figure out what you would on average have got if you'd have just played "normally" in terms of both KOs and the main tourney and work out if this is smaller than getting sweet FA when you got busto + the extra $ you have from a bigger stack. This seems really tough to work out.

There's another dynamic related to this that I don't think has yet been mentioned. Because we have the biggest stack of the three and can't be KO'd, the other players don't have as much of an incentive to stack off light against us because they cannot gain a KO bonus. Also if they are aware that we are going to call super light, this presumably makes their shoving range super-strong. Furthermore, the fact that MP1 shoved makes his range even stronger still because he still has both MP2 and us to worry about.
 

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