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Natural Variance and Luck Playing Out? Or just playing bad?

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Natural Variance and Luck Playing Out? Or just playing bad? - Fri May 02, 2014, 05:21 AM
(#1)
MouZeAttacK's Avatar
Since: Jul 2013
Posts: 26
I limped in with A8os as the remaining players range was wide and most of the times it was in the K8-KQ, therefore I knew there were range sizing their hands to target weaker players like me.

I went all in A8os on the flop (A-3-5) for about 13BB, due to I strongly suspected if I raised I would get the standard huge 3bet raise on a weaker inexperienced player like me, Due to previous table history and the range of cards I knew if i guessed right I be the slight favorite at minimum and if I folded to the 3bet raise the whole table will continue to bully me this way. Therefore I decided to take a chance and make a stand. It was a turbo tournament and I had been painfully and getting blinded away again.

I am very bothered how the last few tournaments I have been kicked out due to me finally taking a stand with reasonable cards. Last time it was AJ vs AQ in the blinds. Previous time it was my A7(BB) hearts up against A10(MP) spade suited. I made trip 7 on the flop, he had a flush draw on the flop and made his flush on the turn.

I am happy with the reads I had on the other players, just my bet sizing and my handling of aggressive 3bet raises which is letting me down.

I know I have a lot or work to do to tighten up my game and am doing the best I can in these areas.

I am just confused if it is natural variance and luck at play (due to the battle of both players wider card ranges) and eventually it will even out or me just playing badly.

Guess I am just frustrated when I know what the other players are up to and when I try to do something about it doesn't workout.

Last edited by MouZeAttacK; Fri May 02, 2014 at 05:26 AM..
 
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Fri May 02, 2014, 07:54 AM
(#2)
mytton's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 181
Hi MouzeAttack,
It would be much easier for others to follow the hand and give advice if you used the replayer to post the actual hand. There are instructions on using the replayer in one of the sticky posts at the top of this forum.

From what you say it sounds as if your problems here may be caused by your preflop play. Limping in is in effect saying, "I want to see a flop with this hand, but it's not strong enough to raise with". Aggressive players will pick up on this and look for any chance to attack. Hence the bullying you mention. Especially with a dwindling stack, you need to bite the bullet and either raise or fold. Down to 14 bb(?) as in this case and it's pretty much shove all in or fold preflop.

In late position, A8o would be a decent hand to play (with 13 or 14 bb, most would open shove in late position here... with more chips it gets trickier and depends more on the other players and stacksizes left to act).

But limping in you cannot possibly take down the pot preflop. The best you can hope for is to see a flop with a hand you have already signalled is not very strong. And if you then hit the flop you stand to not get paid off, or as in this case, get raised and don't know what to do for the best.
 
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Fri May 02, 2014, 09:23 AM
(#3)
baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MouZeAttacK View Post
I limped in with A8os as the remaining players range was wide and most of the times it was in the K8-KQ, therefore I knew there were range sizing their hands to target weaker players like me.
Limping with Ax off is never a good idea, raise with it if you like then you can represent AK but the only time I am ever limping behind with Ax is if its suited and then I am only loving it if i hit my flush or two pair, as two pair is a lovely AK trap.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MouZeAttacK View Post
I went all in A8os on the flop (A-3-5) for about 13BB, due to I strongly suspected if I raised I would get the standard huge 3bet raise on a weaker inexperienced player like me,
So you shoved the flop? I really can't think that shoving here is ever a good idea - all you have is an Ace, sure you are ahead of so much of a range but you are only getting called here by AK and no value from other hands. The goal going into the flop should not just be to win the preflop bets, it should be to extract as much value as possible.

A8o here is check/call for a cheap showdown.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MouZeAttacK View Post
Due to previous table history and the range of cards I knew if i guessed right I be the slight favorite at minimum and if I folded to the 3bet raise the whole table will continue to bully me this way. Therefore I decided to take a chance and make a stand. It was a turbo tournament and I had been painfully and getting blinded away again.

I am very bothered how the last few tournaments I have been kicked out due to me finally taking a stand with reasonable cards.
Not sure if you meant to say that A8o here was reasonable cards, unfortunately it wouldnt be here

Quote:
Originally Posted by MouZeAttacK View Post
Last time it was AJ vs AQ in the blinds. Previous time it was my A7(BB) hearts up against A10(MP) spade suited. I made trip 7 on the flop, he had a flush draw on the flop and made his flush on the turn.
I rarely find myself up against Ax low vs Ax low because I am only really playing Aces with better kickers (and i never have to worry) or I am playing Ax with better options than to hit a pair and im hitting two pair or a flush which is what I will put my money in on

Quote:
Originally Posted by MouZeAttacK View Post
I am happy with the reads I had on the other players, just my bet sizing and my handling of aggressive 3bet raises which is letting me down.

I know I have a lot or work to do to tighten up my game and am doing the best I can in these areas.

I am just confused if it is natural variance and luck at play (due to the battle of both players wider card ranges) and eventually it will even out or me just playing badly.

Guess I am just frustrated when I know what the other players are up to and when I try to do something about it doesn't workout.
Sorry to be tough on you but if you are limping with Ax based on a read, hoping to trap opponents with Kx by hitting an Ace, that really isnt a viable tactic. You are relying a lot more on luck and even then you are putting your opponents on a hand, you are often putting them on one you can beat with just a pair of Aces.

You want to be getting more pot control going on.
You want to win a small pot with a pair and a large pot with two pair, set, flush etc

Control the pot by playing in position and don't be afraid to check the turn to keep the pot manageable.

If you can really find a gap to make your Ax play work, wonderful but you should either be aiming to win a small pot everytime (and folding should your opponent be looking to bloat the pot, because they have better than a pair!)

It is a mistake that a lot of players make that they should get it in with a pair... If you are willing to ship it in, often your opponents won't. Since a pair only beats a lower pair or a high card, most decent players will pass on the opportunity to risk their entire stack like you are. If however they have a strong hand they will call you.

So in the long run you might pickup a few underpair situations with your Ax trap but long-term you are getting called by a better Ace or a stronger made hand. Whereas if you want to play a small pot you might well pickup the top pair vs middle pair winnings.
 
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Fri May 02, 2014, 09:43 AM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,819
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Hi MouZeAttacK!

Limping in with A/rag's is just asking to get beat, as there is too much of a chance that you're outkicked. If it was open-limped, then it is a HUGE problem.

The shove may or may not have been a good play (can't tell without everyone's stack sizes and the size of the pot)..... but the overwhelming majority of the time, I should not be in a hand with ace/rag in the first place.

If someone 3-bets, then A/rag is definitely not strong enough to call a 3-bet with. To call a 3-bet from a standard opp, the only hands with an A that I want to play are AA, AK and maybe AQ... the rest are too weak.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Fri May 02, 2014, 11:50 AM
(#5)
MouZeAttacK's Avatar
Since: Jul 2013
Posts: 26
First of all more whining and complaining.

I am just so frustrated at the moment as I am folding the advised easily dominated hands like KQ J10 QJ and everyone is playing the cards I am folding and Ax+ ranges all the while my chips are getting blinded away. At times I am folding 10-30 hands in a row. I know this is too nitty and am trying to open up a bit more. Occasionally I gamble and float my AK AQ and pair to the turn, most of the time it does not work unless it is suited or draw heavy.

Then as the blinds move up the more the short stacks start to get aggressive due to survival mode and the big stacks start opening to a very wide range hand, which therefore limit the available options to me.

I struggle to make a profit UTG with AQ AK JJ UTG, therefore am asking is this one of the combinations which is traditionally hard to make a profit or just me being a bad player. When I receive these cards in early tournament I tend to be resigned on placing many places lower than my target placing I set for myself. In turn, I am starting to understand what the Poker Pros mean by losing the minimum as this type of situation is one of those. Am I right?

I am making a better effort to memorize all the common pot odds and common out combinations and possible number of outs for each common situation and other related topics.

If you haven't work it out by now, I am more of a intuitive player than a numbers cruncher person.

In order to ween myself off being a NIT and becoming more like a TAG I shall be refraining from Open League due to I consider it giving me more bad habits than good.

Due to recently making a push to get better at poker I am having a hard time figuring out who is the fish and who are the solid players now,does this happen to most when they are trying to better themselves? Or it is just as deeper you go into the tournament peoples range starts to get wider therefore harder to differentiate at times until they hove/stack off with Q3os? and hopefully not against you and get lucky.

Most importantly Thank you for the feedback and agree totally with all of it.

*After reading your responses I have a better understanding of my natural style of poker play which reflects who I am as a person.
*I realize that I am too results orientated and need to stop focusing on getting within X spots of the tournament as it is making play badly.
*Need to apply the bank roll management in terms of how many buy ins amount to tournament poker also, therefore I can play optimally.
*Not afraid of making the right play and busting out early.
*Heaps more practice counting pot odds to outs ratio.
 
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Fri May 02, 2014, 12:32 PM
(#6)
baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
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Don't play like the fish, beat the fish

You want your opponents to be play loose as possible and punish them when you get a hand

I have played entire sit and goes without seeing a single hand to play

If you are getting itchy fingers, multi table or stick a YouTube video on or watch some tv




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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Fri May 02, 2014, 12:35 PM
(#7)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,819
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MouZeAttacK View Post
I struggle to make a profit UTG with AQ AK JJ UTG, therefore am asking is this one of the combinations which is traditionally hard to make a profit or just me being a bad player. When I receive these cards in early tournament I tend to be resigned on placing many places lower than my target placing I set for myself. In turn, I am starting to understand what the Poker Pros mean by losing the minimum as this type of situation is one of those. Am I right?
From UTG at a full ring table, standard raising and making standard postflop bets with AK and JJ can be very profitably. Standard bets and not over-valuing one pair hands is a big key.

AQ is normally a muck (can be playable in the right situations) but it takes the correct table dynamics. The reason for it is that it can be easily dominated by AK.

Weaker aces... too weak to play and are -EV in the long run due to being outkicked.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Fri May 02, 2014, 01:00 PM
(#8)
MouZeAttacK's Avatar
Since: Jul 2013
Posts: 26


I was going to post this hand regardless of the fatal mis-click due to having NUM LOCK on!!!

Opened raised for 300, did I open raise too small?
I called the 200 , due to I was priced in.
Checking was the wrong option? Right?

What was suppose to happen next:-
I raise 500 3xBB +1 for each limper.
Had he re-raised, wound have seriously considered calling to see the turn.
Had he re-raised all in, would have stubbornly folded
Had he called, I would have very stubbornly checked then stubbornly folded the turn when he raised.

Lesson learnt, make sure to have NUM LUCK off next time.
Tournament was 11c turbo
Think I am going to stick to 27c turbo minimum, too many maniacs on 11c turbo

Last edited by MouZeAttacK; Fri May 02, 2014 at 01:12 PM..
 
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Fri May 02, 2014, 01:04 PM
(#9)
MouZeAttacK's Avatar
Since: Jul 2013
Posts: 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by baud2death View Post
Don't play like the fish, beat the fish
Also means, just because the solid players are loosening up and resist temptation until the right opening opens up for me?
 
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Fri May 02, 2014, 01:15 PM
(#10)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,819
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Muck ATs to the 3-bet preflop.. it's not strong enough to call with.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Fri May 02, 2014, 01:51 PM
(#11)
MouZeAttacK's Avatar
Since: Jul 2013
Posts: 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
Muck ATs to the 3-bet preflop.. it's not strong enough to call with.

John (JWK24)
It is going to be a tough habit to break out for me, but I understand your advice totally.

and also I should try and stop trying to out-play the fish all the time.
 
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Fri May 02, 2014, 04:19 PM
(#12)
baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MouZeAttacK View Post
It is going to be a tough habit to break out for me, but I understand your advice totally.

and also I should try and stop trying to out-play the fish all the time.
Yeah.. its about patience and trust me, when you tag that fish with a note about his bad play and either see him later on or in another game, it is going to feel so sweet when you outplay him with the best of it rather than hoping to flop something.

Let fish be fish, let them fight each other and spew at each other..the worst thing you can do is feed a fish.

I remember a final table in a small 25c sit and go and someone said to me
"you are good, everytime i see your cards you have Aces or Kings"

This was a nice compliment which was ruined by the next thing he said 2 seconds later
"i wish jokerstars paid me to be a stooge like you" (or something to that effect)

He then raised from UTG whilst I was in late position, I had AK and I 3-bet him, he called. I flopped a King and he min.bet, I raised 1/2 pot and he called. I flopped an Ace, he shoved and I called.

He had Ax (low card, cant remember what).

I then had to listen to him (until i muted him) tell me that i was going to get cancer, i was a cheater and he was reporting me, I hacked into his screen to see his cards etc.


I was half laughing, half sad for the dude.
He had no concept of how to play well and was relying on luck, like it was a slot machine and when he hit an Ace, he should get paid off but if someone else had a better hand it was cheating.

It is players like that we WANT to play against, they will make the wrong moves everytime and whilst we will not always have the cards to punish them, when we do, it tastes so sweet
 

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