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FR 25NL, Pocket AhAc against four flush on the board

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FR 25NL, Pocket AhAc against four flush on the board - Mon May 05, 2014, 07:47 AM
(#1)
Sle4zy_E's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 78
SilverStar


Villain VPIP 14 from a 90 hand sample

doesn't seem to be seen properly in the replayer but he made a $2 bet on the river.

Call or fold?

Last edited by Sle4zy_E; Mon May 05, 2014 at 07:50 AM..
 
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Mon May 05, 2014, 10:24 AM
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TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Hi Sle4zy,

I would fold... would be nice to see post flop stats and not just a vpip #, but regardless, it seems unlikely the villain would be bluffing here. Most of his flop calling range will be 1 pair hands like Jx (or better) and flush draws. I would generally expect all the non-flushes to simply check and show down most of the time, so I think we are getting shown a flush too often to make looking him up profitable.


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Mon May 05, 2014, 12:06 PM
(#3)
Sle4zy_E's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 78
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Hey Lang,

He actually hit and run so thats pretty much all I remember of his stats from memory.

I entered his vpip in equilab and it said i was slightly better then 50% against his range on the river, so the pot odds were right.

My gut definitely told me I was beat but i made the call based on the math and he had K8d for a flopped flush.

Im very new to using Equilab so I might have done it all wrong. If so input is welcome.

I guess I won some G bucks

Actually I havent fully grasped that concept yet
 
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Mon May 05, 2014, 12:26 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sle4zy_E View Post
I entered his vpip in equilab and it said i was slightly better then 50% against his range on the river, so the pot odds were right.

My gut definitely told me I was beat but i made the call based on the math and he had K8d for a flopped flush.

Im very new to using Equilab so I might have done it all wrong. If so input is welcome.
You probably used equilab right, but applied it wrong...

My guess is you were looking at his range that you felt he got to the river with. What you really need to consider is not this range, but the range he bets the river with. So for instance if in theory we knew with 100% certainty that he would only bet with a flush and check down everything else, then our equity when he bets is 0.

Without a firm read, many players will simply check down showdown value hands on this board and only bet with a flush, or bluff. But I have a hard time seeing what he called the flop with that is not in the SDV or flush category by the river (I don't think he will be likely to turn Jx and other 1 pairs into a bluff since you've checked to him twice now). Obviously we are guessing with little read here, so can never rule out some weird bluff, but I doubt he's doing it often enough for us to show a profit check/calling.


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Mon May 05, 2014, 12:50 PM
(#5)
Sle4zy_E's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 78
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I definitely applied it wrong.

Your explanation makes total sense.

Thanks
 
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Mon May 05, 2014, 01:18 PM
(#6)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
I think to be making a call we would have to assume villain would turn a hand he c/called the flop with into a bluff on the river? Don't see him turning jx into a bluff, has plenty of showdown value considering our line.

sizing is a bit worrying otr too, looks like he wants a call. Line looks fine.
 

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