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10NL ZOOM, AJs TPTK NFD vs. bet and shove

10NL ZOOM, AJs TPTK NFD vs. bet and shove - Mon May 05, 2014, 06:34 PM
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
OTF: Hero should do what?

MP: VPIP: 11, PFR: 6, 3B: 5, AF: 3.5, Hands: 53
CO: VPIP: 22, PFR: 12, 3B: 4, AF: 1.3, Hands: 279
SB: VPIP: 56, PFR: 33, 3B: 17, AF: 0.0, Hands: 9

Mon May 05, 2014, 07:14 PM
baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
I don't mind the call preflop, you have the button.

on the flop :
HJ likely has a nice hand there, with that wet flop it could be anything however to lead out and considering he is the PRF, AJ is possible, a set is possible, KQ is possible, overpairs are possible.. I have no idea though.
CO is just going over the top here. I really can't see him having anything but a monster here and is praying that the PRF or even yourself has a piece of it so he can get paid. KQ very likely, set very likely.

In this spot, I would fold.
You have a great hand but have 2 opponents betting into you, one of which is a shove and you have no idea how the PRF will react if you get it in as well.. to be on the safe side you would assume he will stack off as well.

Your hand is beautiful, the action is ugly.
You have top pair top kicker right now
Lets assume you need to beat at least a set or straight here, we will ignore your Two Pair/Trips outs.
So really its the flush we need to get

So here, unless you are confident your opponents aren't representing a set or a straight, you can only win here 36% of the time, assuming your Jacks arent strong enough right now either.

You have a pair right now and a draw to the nuts.
You really needed to play a small pot to protect your draw but the CO doesnt want to do that and forgetting your flush outs, can you really continue with just top pair?

I hate that he stacked off on the flop... it shows massive weakness but we can't challenge it with just top pair and flush outs.

Unless i really think this guy would stack off with less than two pair, I am folding.
If i don't know for sure, I am folding.

If in doubt, fold - after all, the risk to you is minimal right now at 30c, the risk goes up to pottentially $9 and i just don't see you getting there the majority of the time.

EDIT : additionall, i feel you need to discount some of your hearts. I think that there is a chance one/both have some hearts if only 1/2

Last edited by baud2death; Mon May 05, 2014 at 07:16 PM..
Mon May 05, 2014, 07:53 PM
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
Wow. What a spot.

I am not nearly competent enough to answer this one.

My only thoughts are that presuming opener calls, how often do we win by the river. As there is no way we are ahead here obviously if it's a three way all in on flop.

How many flush combos are there in our villains range? KQ hearts/78 hearts imo the only combos. Don't think 78 fits into MP opening range. MP will call off with kk.aa with the heart i would think. That's another out to think about.

OMG my head explodes thinking about this spot.

Last edited by Paddy Gar; Mon May 05, 2014 at 07:56 PM..
Mon May 05, 2014, 10:04 PM
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
allllllll innnnnnnn
Tue May 06, 2014, 03:25 AM
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Agree with Birdayy.

We have TPTK, NFD and backdoor straight outs (Potentially).

I think we are good to take our chances here against possible overpairs and sets and worse flush draws.
Tue May 06, 2014, 03:58 AM
baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
Guess my response was a little too nitty

I agree we are ahead of so much here but I think that there are better times to stack-off.

What happened by the way?
Tue May 06, 2014, 05:59 AM
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
I'm in the camp of moving all in. Yes it's high variance, but I'm pretty sure it will be +EV in the long run.

There is a whole bunch of hands that the CO might take overbet jam this flop with. We're way behind sets and straights, but we're beating everything else like QJ, QT, Q9, worse flush draws and we're also actually a slight favourite vs T9.

For a similar reason that baud2death pointed out, by shoving we might also get the original bettor to fold hands that have decent equity against us, primarily overpairs. Even if these hands choose to call, this doesn't effect our equity all that much but just gives us much higher pot odds due to the higher payout when we win.
Tue May 06, 2014, 11:49 AM
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Thanks everyone! My initial plan was to shove... then I actually decided to just call... Reason was to put the original bettor into a tough situation. As well as have the "potential fish" in the SB to make a mistake. (SB: VPIP: 56, PFR: 33, 3B: 17, AF: 0.0, Hands: 9)

I felt that If I shove the original bettor is only calling with KQ, sets, and at worse KK with the K of hearts, maybe QQ with the Q of hearts. After the original bettor bets out and the CO shoves for 50 bbs I think that this is a spot where either:

A) I'm way ahead
B) behind (but with a enough equity to call/shove)
C) flipping vs slow played KK, QQ

I think that all of these options factor in and this is why I chose to CC and try to entice the original bettor to:

A) re-shove
B) cold call to get more money in the pot
C) he's a nit... Nits can still fold over pairs here when I CC

My CC can also make the SB make a mistake and continue with worse hearts which will pay me off if we hit.

This is why I posted the hand because I wasn't sure if shoving is superior to cold calling but my standard line would be to shove in this spot.

Here's what happened in the hand.


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