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NL10- top set facing river check-shove

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NL10- top set facing river check-shove - Mon May 05, 2014, 10:04 PM
(#1)
pockettones's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 151
Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10, $0.02 ante No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $12.13 (121.3 bb)
SB: $35.51 (355.1 bb)
BB: $12.23 (122.3 bb)
Hero (MP): $10.18 (101.8 bb)
CO: $12.37 (123.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with T T
Hero raises to $0.30, 3 folds, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.75) 6 2 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.50, BB calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.75) T (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.20, BB calls $1.20

River: ($4.15) 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2, BB raises to $8.30, Hero calls $6.16 and is all-in

Results:
Click to show hidden text


So I actually planned to bet fold the river thinking he wont shove with a non flush hand. What do you guys think of the call? VIllain 50/24/8.3 AF of 4.0 over 208 hands.
 
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Mon May 05, 2014, 10:07 PM
(#2)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Depends if he value jams sets.

I think game theory wise we can't fold this far up in our range.
 
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Tue May 06, 2014, 05:45 AM
(#3)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
This is a heavily read-based decision.

As a default vs an unknown at 10NL, I'd be inclined to fold vs this action as it screams value and looks super-strong.

However the stats you posted on this guy do seem to indicate that he might be willing to pull off a big river bluff or make a thin value shove with a worse set, although I would imagine that worse sets might have made themselves known to you at some earlier point in the hand.

You have to make a judgment call if this particular villain is capable of bluff check/raising this river at least 1/3 of the time. Knowing some river aggression stats might help with this judgment but you may not have enough of a sample size to make any river stats relevant with only 208 hands on villain.
 

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