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10NL KK turn re-raise shove vs Unknown

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10NL KK turn re-raise shove vs Unknown - Tue May 06, 2014, 02:23 PM
(#1)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Not really much to say here.

Against an unknown, yay or nay to calling the turn shove?

Only hands that made any sort of sense were flopped or turned sets. No two pair made sense unless he is pretty spewy. I didn't think he had me beat pre either of course.

 
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Tue May 06, 2014, 02:41 PM
(#2)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Why can't he have JT of hearts here? I can't give the villains enough combos of hands to make this call +EV. I think this is a fold!
 
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Tue May 06, 2014, 03:04 PM
(#3)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
i think he can have j10 suited here. You're 3bet sizing was smaller than 3x his raise, might lead villain to call oop with a wider range.

We're assuming guy isn't a reg here right? If that's the case def give him credit for more combos here.
 
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Tue May 06, 2014, 04:15 PM
(#4)
awmm83's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 142
HH Bhoy Legend . Why did you bet half on the flop and then higher on the turn? Strange line . I think you committed yourself with that bet size. Pot size on the 3 bet would have also been optimal . To use a football analogy , don't let them sign a bargain like Kris Commons, charge the pants off them
 
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Tue May 06, 2014, 04:20 PM
(#5)
baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
BronzeStar
I like checking the turn, whilst we are ahead of so much here, a bit of pot control would make sense. Also, it gives us a great idea of where we are since our opponent is OOP, he will have to show what equity he has by his river bet.

But for the answer to your question, no, i wouldnt call - unless i have a hand better than a pair, im not calling a check-raise. If its a bluff, bravo and give him a medal, otherwise its MOST of the time better than a pair and not worth it.
 
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Tue May 06, 2014, 07:55 PM
(#6)
Low Rated's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 114
I would call
 
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Wed May 07, 2014, 04:54 AM
(#7)
rkleefstra's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,328
nay

I'm folding
 
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Wed May 07, 2014, 05:54 AM
(#8)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Call.
 
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Wed May 07, 2014, 01:07 PM
(#9)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Gosh - awkward spot bhoy


Think I remember reading in your 2014 thread that one of your pet peeves is when people leave comments under your hands in HA, but don't ever get around to answering the specific question you've asked - will have to make a note to remember not to talk on and on, and wind up forgetting to choose 'call or fold'


So many thoughts ... guess the thing I'm not sure about is if the villain's shoving because he turned a combo draw and wouldn't mind a fold in the event that he's behind? Or if he's shoving because he noticed the bets were getting bigger and thinks there's a decent chance he'll get a call?

Anybody else find it more common for loose passives to mini-reraise with big hands rather than shove - especially when the board isn't super-wet? And the bets weren't huge ...

Think I've had some loose aggros overbet shove turns like this with hands like Jh Ah and Jh Qh?


Gosh ... kind of a big amount to call - and that'd be awful to be up against a set, or even 2pr. But there's also a fair amount of $ in the middle already, so ... maybe this is one of those spots that's 0EV in the long-run?


In which case, I'd probably call, just to see what the villain had But I think a fold would be good too
 
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Wed May 07, 2014, 03:14 PM
(#10)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
Unknown range here...hmm, 1010/JJ/J10suited/AJsuited/AQ suited? If you give him 55/33 it's even worse.

Against the big draws our equity is great ott. against the other combos we're pretty much dead. I think it's something like 2.5/1 on the call. Our equity versus above range, taking out the j10 combos and adding in maybe 7h8h is 26% so i'm folding.

My calculations could be wrong there maybe someone can help with that?

We have Kh too so less flush combos here, KQ and KJ not possible, including qhjh it's 30%. That's IF we don't include 55/33/j10suited.

I doubt we can really think too much into the whole button vs co dynamics either as he's unknown and you play these stakes a lot right? against a reg you could be barrelling with tons of semi bluffs here, but against an unknown your line looks really really strong. You have some set combos in your range too, as well as overpairs.

Unknown I think this is a standard bet fold.

Last edited by Paddy Gar; Wed May 07, 2014 at 03:46 PM..
 
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Wed May 07, 2014, 04:10 PM
(#11)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paddy Gar View Post
My calculations could be wrong there maybe someone can help with that?
I used the same ones Except I used a weighted average ...

Guess maybe the question really turns on which hands one thinks are more likely for the average unknown to be overbet shoving (as opposed to just re-raising)?


Really hard to know without reads
 
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Thu May 08, 2014, 01:12 PM
(#12)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Quote:
Originally Posted by dirt eh View Post
Why can't he have JT of hearts here?
He can have it. Never said he couldn't. I just think that as we were both unknown to each other that he may not call with that OOP pre-flop hoping for a 'miracle' flop. Unless he thinks I am 3betting light.

Quote:
Originally Posted by awmm83 View Post
HH Bhoy Legend . Why did you bet half on the flop and then higher on the turn? Strange line . I think you committed yourself with that bet size. Pot size on the 3 bet would have also been optimal .
If I was OOP then I would have been potting it. IP I actually want him to call rather than charging him a premium to continue. I don't want to make the penalty so harsh that he can't continue to play Michael Ball anymore and eventually have to go into liquidation.

On the flop, I haven't a notion what he is calling with, how much heat he can withstand. Once he calls flop I can make some guesstimates that he is maybe calling with Suited/Connected hands and some pairs that aren't quite ready to give up.

As he has shown an interest, and I have KK and love to play huge pots, I'm setting up stacks for the river.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paddy Gar View Post
i think he can have j10 suited here. You're 3bet sizing was smaller than 3x his raise, might lead villain to call oop with a wider range.

We're assuming guy isn't a reg here right? If that's the case def give him credit for more combos here.
We're making an assumption that he is a typical 10NL player ie. he's probably better than a 2NL player but far from the finished article.

10NL players are capable of extreme nittiness and absolute spew/

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Originally Posted by Low Rated View Post
I would call
Noted!
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Originally Posted by rkleefstra View Post
nay

I'm folding
Fair enough.
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Originally Posted by birdayy View Post
Call.
I kind of had an inkling you would say that and I appreciate the feedback
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrustySam View Post
Gosh - awkward spot bhoy


Think I remember reading in your 2014 thread that one of your pet peeves is when people leave comments under your hands in HA, but don't ever get around to answering the specific question you've asked - will have to make a note to remember not to talk on and on, and wind up forgetting to choose 'call or fold'


So many thoughts ... guess the thing I'm not sure about is if the villain's shoving because he turned a combo draw and wouldn't mind a fold in the event that he's behind? Or if he's shoving because he noticed the bets were getting bigger and thinks there's a decent chance he'll get a call?

Anybody else find it more common for loose passives to mini-reraise with big hands rather than shove - especially when the board isn't super-wet? And the bets weren't huge ...

Think I've had some loose aggros overbet shove turns like this with hands like Jh Ah and Jh Qh?


Gosh ... kind of a big amount to call - and that'd be awful to be up against a set, or even 2pr. But there's also a fair amount of $ in the middle already, so ... maybe this is one of those spots that's 0EV in the long-run?


In which case, I'd probably call, just to see what the villain had But I think a fold would be good too
Sam, I did mention that I hated not having my questions answered in a HA thread, but that was when I posted specific questions on my line and the HA amounted to how the analyser would have played it. That's great, but I kind of felt my line was ok, if not optimal and had wanted info on that and was ignored. C'est la vie.

I do agree though that I am noticing more shove happy play from players, even those who appear LP according to HUD stats.

Just one final point to anyone who wants to fold, HUDs are eliminated here, and the format is the same ie. Zoom. You get this set-up three hands in a row, each time against an unknown, are you folding every time because the guy is unknown?

Far fetched scenario maybe, but remember Sandtraps thread where the got dealt the same two value cards something like 7 times in a row? It happens.
 
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Thu May 08, 2014, 01:39 PM
(#13)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
Yeah I'm still folding everytime.

If there's a decent chance of spazz in the general player pool this changes the decision, I just don't see how many spazz combos he has that calls the flop and shoves turn that doesnt have decent equity against us. Some smaller pocket pairs he's turning into a bluff?

Is we assume he's unknown and won't call oop with j10suited here, standard range of 1010/JJ/AQ/AQs/AJ suited maybe? Is that reasonable?

I don't have the sample on the pool that you do bhoy, just giving my opinion that i would fold.
 
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Thu May 08, 2014, 01:59 PM
(#14)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
I doubt folding or calling is a massive mistake vs an unknown as you have no idea what types of hands his shipping you might be drawing to two outs every time he ships or you might have him well and truly crushed or you could be flipping vs JJ TT and QQ.

Even if he has all broadway hearts and he ships the ones with a pair/2nd pair your still not a favourite vs his range so i would probably just fold myself and that turn card dont look like a good turn to be doing any bluff shoving to me all it did was impoved JJ JTs thats the perfect turn for him when he is *****d to get you to make the mistake of thinking he does have draws when maybe he never does.

All i would be thinking about is does he shove worse for value to call and i dont know so i just fold, how does everyone play there QQ in CO here vs an unknown on the same run out?
 
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Thu May 08, 2014, 02:11 PM
(#15)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
The standard is to ship queens pre at 10nl in this spot surely, so i wouldn't include it here. Who knows though, if he's calling with queens oop here it would be to ship any non a/k flop and keep some bluffs in I guess.
 
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Fri May 09, 2014, 10:55 AM
(#16)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
I'm in the fold camp.

To me this is classic Beluga Theorem stuff. Unless I have a good reason to believe that the villain is capable of making this line as a bluff, there's just too many hands in his range that beat us that would play this way. 33, 55, TT, JJ, JT.

We've shown super-strength and he's not afraid one bit and I know from experience grinding my way up through the limits to know that he's not bluffing anywhere near often enough to make this call profitable .

Another further point is that we have Kh, which takes away some of his potential flush draws he might have played like this e.g. AKhh, KQhh, KJhh. However even if we had KsKc, I'd still be advocating a bet/fold line on turn and river.
 
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Fri May 09, 2014, 08:12 PM
(#17)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
EDIT:

After reading everybody's thoughts on the hand, am starting to wonder whether I'd really call in this spot or not.

Guess I've just noticed a pattern of casuals who, in the face of an underbet, will sometimes try to get a fold by overbetting when the board is dry, when you would expect a strong hand to instead bet small ... and thought *maybe* this might be one such hand? Except when I make the rare bluff-catching call, light, it's rarely if ever for stacks, so ... this doesn't seem like it'd be a spot id call off after all.

Hard to know for sure too, because when it's our own hand we have so many 'reads', even versus unknowns - like even if there's not a lot of HUD stats, sometimes having some can still make a difference? Also, knowing the number of tables the villain's playing, if they have the phone/tablet app showing ... and timing tells are so key.


Think it's much more common for me to fold overpairs and sets post-flop, than be making light calls with them, so maybe folding's right in this spot after all ... think I've changed my mind!

Last edited by TrustySam; Fri May 09, 2014 at 08:36 PM..
 
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Sat May 10, 2014, 05:11 AM
(#18)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Ok, thank you everyone for your comments.

At the time, I did kind of hate my life when I made the call, because I thought it highly likely that he had a set but I also didn't discount him spewing with a random TP hand or a flush draw. I can see that thinking was probably erroneous in the cold light of day.

He did show up with 9h7h though so the money did actually get in good.
 
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Sat May 10, 2014, 07:29 AM
(#19)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Was thinking 9h 8h was possible, but am not surprised to hear the hand was even worse.

This is a really interesting spot, because your hand was in such bad shape against everything except a (semi-)bluff, and a (semi-)bluff wasn't in terrible shape. It sounds like even if it feels like all the villain's got in his range are semi-bluffs, a call would still be worse than a fold?
 
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Sat May 10, 2014, 09:50 AM
(#20)
baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by bhoylegend View Post
Ok, thank you everyone for your comments.

At the time, I did kind of hate my life when I made the call, because I thought it highly likely that he had a set but I also didn't discount him spewing with a random TP hand or a flush draw. I can see that thinking was probably erroneous in the cold light of day.

He did show up with 9h7h though so the money did actually get in good.
I make mistakes all the time.. i made quite a couple today.
To me I think mistakes like this are like building muscles, we must tear the muscle to make it bigger and we have to make mistakes to make our game better.

I am not saying go out there are start making mistakes for the fun of it but spots like this when you think "CRAP, I SHOULD NOT HAVE CALLED THAT" make you less likely to do it next time, and hopefuly condition yourself to never do it.

Its these forums that help us do that as well because we think "mmmm was that a good call" and then we see everyone saying "NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO" so we see what they mean and realize that if it was us commenting on someone elses play, we would likely say the same thing.

Its all good.

 

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