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25NL ZOOM, QQ vs DONKbet and SHOVE

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25NL ZOOM, QQ vs DONKbet and SHOVE - Tue May 06, 2014, 06:49 PM
(#1)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Alright so... EVERYTHING in my body said call vs. these two players. The strange thing is that they're so passive and their play is very aggressive.

Would you make the call in this spot?
And what range do you give these two opponents...

CO(39): 29/18/0.2
ATS: 30
Notes: plays passively when holding middle pair and over pairs

BB(24): 29/13/0.7

 
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Tue May 06, 2014, 07:51 PM
(#2)
Low Rated's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 114
I think we have to make the nitty fold here.

BB line looks really strong and I dont see him doing this as a bluff very often given the action thats going on. I think he would probably 4b his AK combos PF as he is OOP but could sometimes flat your 3b with KK/AA trying to keep the CO in the pot.

CO range looks more like a set mine or AQs/AKs, whatever he has he seems happy to play for his stack. Either of these villains could be going in with TT/JJ but I dont think we have the best hand. Our hand is pretty strong but idk if it is strong enough here.
 
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Tue May 06, 2014, 08:47 PM
(#3)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
Those aggro factors dirt!

Tiny sample so not hugely important. Still if the co plays overpairs passively, would he he lead the flop with 99/JJ?

The guy in the bb can flat all his flush draws as he's closing the action and getting a good price on the flop. this is probably what worries me the most. I think one of these guys has a set here too often to call.

I don't see bb flatting ak hearts to your 3bet, a pocket pair would make more sense, and we block aq hearts.
AJhearts only flush combo i would put in his range, and I would have no idea if he's the type to ship two overs and a flush draw in that spot. As I said when he's closing the action and has been playing passively i expect a call with a draw.

I think villain in the co has a wider range than bb because he closed the action pre flop and has decent odds to call. So he has several pocket pairs, and flush draws. More than bb imo.

So I'd say given the info I see here, that while it's possible 1 player has a flush draw, i can't see both having one. I also can't see them overplaying those pairs we are ahead of due to reads and small sample ag.factor.

It's almost like a bet/fold spot. If i was in the hand and i was planning it out, i'd be thinking to bet/fold the flop versus these villains.

I fold.

Last edited by Paddy Gar; Tue May 06, 2014 at 09:01 PM..
 
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Wed May 07, 2014, 01:49 PM
(#4)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Paddy,

I actually had the ranges reversed from what you have. I had CO on some weird flush draw/8x of hearts combo and I had the BB on TT or JJ... The CO leading into me makes no sense. Their passiveness shows that they play "big" hands slow... So I decided that this player is one that plays their draws fast and aggressive. (AKA fish)

BB having 8s is possible but I feel that TT and JJ fit their range better here when they CC my 3-bet OOP. Let's just say that I wasn't worried about the BBs shove. Now when the CO comes along... this was weird. But then I thought back to whether they would lead a set into me here... So I thought to my self I have the best hand here!
 
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Wed May 07, 2014, 02:56 PM
(#5)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
That's a pretty good thought process dirt. Go with your gut feeling if it comes down to it. You also have one of the flush outs i guess which is nice.

That's what I was thinking in my comments, that co has more flush draws than the bb. I guess bb can jam some overpairs because you just flatted the donk and he may not know what to do on several turn cards. Hence why i would expect him to flat a draw as he's getting a good price and closing action/ passive so far.

Yeah the other thing is that while co is passive, has he donked before? Donking and calling a shove isn't exactly aggressive, so it's not like he always has a set. I think 1 or two solid reads is the difference between a call and fold here.
 
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Fri May 09, 2014, 11:38 AM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi guys,

I think this is a fold mostly vs. 2 passive guys. It's easy to talk ourselves into favorable scenarios like being up against a draw and JJ. There's some problems with that though:

1) Passive players don't necessarily play draws or 99-JJ this way.

2) In most of our favorable scenario's we are getting our stack in +EV but not hugely so (for passive guys to do this with draws I would expect big draws like Ah8h or 9h7h, so we're not that far ahead really and are only +EV because of the 3rd players dead money... which isn't totally dead, JJ has 2 outs, but it's money is in super bad).

3) In all of our non-favorable scenarios, we are getting the money in hugely bad.

So in other words from an equity perspective, when we are ahead, we are usually not much so, but when we are behind, we are destroyed.

I do think we will see enough sets and preflop slow played AA/KK holdings vs. 2 passives here that we'll find ourselves stepping in #3 way too often for my tastes.


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Fri May 09, 2014, 12:08 PM
(#7)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Thanks Dave! My read was right but that nasty K8s had good equity vs. my hand. Here are the results. I WON THE SIDE POT!

 

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