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NL 10 - facing pot bet on river with flush, 3b pot multiway

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NL 10 - facing pot bet on river with flush, 3b pot multiway - Wed May 07, 2014, 12:38 AM
(#1)
pockettones's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 151
Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10, $0.02 ante No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

CO: $86.71 (867.1 bb)
BTN: $24.14 (241.4 bb)
SB: $21.45 (214.5 bb)
Hero (BB): $28.43 (284.3 bb)
UTG: $22.15 (221.5 bb)
MP: $55.38 (553.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J Q
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.30, CO calls $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, SB folds, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($1.37) T 3 2 (4 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $0.87, CO calls $0.87, BTN folds, Hero calls $0.87

Turn: ($3.98) 4 (3 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $2.15, CO calls $2.15, Hero calls $2.15

River: ($10.43) 9 (3 players)
Hero checks, MP checks, CO bets $9.96, Hero calls $9.96, MP folds

Results:
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Villain is very aggressive(34/27/12.7 AF 3.2 1k hands) but usually pots a wide range of value hands. So I'm pretty confident he has a flush on the river, I don't feel comfortable with calling and Im not sure if I can fold a hand this strong. I think maybe I ought to have bet half pot on river for value, but it does look pretty obvious I have a flush here all the time and I think all non flush hands fold to me.
 
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Wed May 07, 2014, 05:54 AM
(#2)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Call >> all in >>>>> fold
 
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Wed May 07, 2014, 06:22 AM
(#3)
baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
BronzeStar
Flop bet is fine to call, price is ok to me where you are calling $0.87 into $3.11 (pot would need to be about $1 more to make it a good call) weighing up the implied odds if we hit with 2 other opponents in the hand and us having position. We are losing $0.20 or so here typically but I think that is a good enough markup if we can hit our diamond.

Turn is a FOLD with a capital "F"
You risked it for one street, now you are being asked to pay a too high price, instead of a 20c difference you are now paying a $1.50 markup.. your took a gamble and it didn't pay off, implied odds or not you are folding.... but you didn't.

I hate that our opponent was betting the flush aggressive early but picked up OESD on the turn. For him his outs were 17 for a straight/flush and he had about a 35% chance of being ahead.. still weak but he also had fold equity vs both of you due to his aggression.

You were fighting a semi-bluff with a semi-bluff, didn't have the lead and were not getting the right price to call. If you had at least a pair here I might have said it was closer but there are much easier spots to chip up and this was very marginal
 
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Fri May 09, 2014, 03:22 AM
(#4)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
This was an interesting spot. No stats on the original raiser in MP? You have good stats on the CO, but it would help to look at his aggression on the postflop streets. Here he is passive up to the river, but the MP is building the pot for everyone. Regardless, I would expect the CO to have raised the flop or turn if he had an overpair or set. His line does look to be a flush draw.

On the turn, I too lean toward a fold even though you have a flush draw and two overs. The problem as I see it is twofold. Firstly, our flush outs are not clean. Secondly, and most importantly, we are out of position. This decreases our chances of winning a big pot the times we do make a flush on the river. If we lead out, we can assume that most non-flush hands will fold. If we check, the non-flush hands will check behind. In other words we are only getting action from other flushes. Since the CO is a reg, is he going to be stacking off with low suited connectors? It seems unlikely. As you said, it looks like the CO has a flush. You are holding the Q and J. The 10 and 9 are on the board. So, all the Axs or Kxs are beating you. He would need to be holding 87s or lower. These hands may be in his preflop range, but I don't expect him to pot the river with these.

As played,folding to the river looks best since his range seems to primarily be better flushes.
 

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