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NL10 - jamming flush on river

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NL10 - jamming flush on river - Wed May 07, 2014, 12:43 AM
(#1)
pockettones's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 151
Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (CO): $10.79 (107.9 bb)
BTN: $8.77 (87.7 bb)
SB: $11.34 (113.4 bb)
BB: $13.78 (137.8 bb)
UTG: $10.10 (101 bb)
MP: $11.48 (114.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7 5
UTG raises to $0.30, MP folds, Hero calls $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.05) 9 2 Q (3 players)
UTG bets $0.70, Hero calls $0.70, BTN calls $0.70

Turn: ($3.15) A (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.50, BTN calls $1.50, UTG folds

River: ($6.15) A (2 players)
Hero bets $8.29 and is all-in, BTN calls $6.27 and is all-in

Results:
Click to show hidden text


What do you guys think of my shove? Villain is kinda fishy 32/5 so I thought Id just jam it and hope to get called by trip aces or something.

Last edited by pockettones; Wed May 07, 2014 at 02:25 AM..
 
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Wed May 07, 2014, 01:07 AM
(#2)
baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
BronzeStar
Firstly, no reason to be calling the flop bet, price is far too high.

On the shove though, i really didn't like it.

The most obvious 2 hands YOU could have would be a flush or trip aces.
It isn't like it was trip 5s or something, Ax is the most popular hand players will gamble with, you even summarily put your opponent on Ax yourself to prove the point.

So if someone is calling you, they are only doing so if they can beat trip aces in my opinion.
That is with a better flush or a full house.

Now, I am not saying you are automatically beaten by better here but by leading you have no information on your opponents hand and by overbetting the river you are giving your opponent a very easy decision to make since if he is easily beat he can fold but if he can beat you, he is calling.

Had you half pot bet the river and he shoved, you still might call but at least in that spot you are giving yourself the option of folding which you didn't do here.

Its a difficult spot for sure but in spots where you are ahead you will lose value and spots like this where you are behind you will get stuck.

You shouldn't have made the turn bet bigger, 1/2 pot is fine as you don't want to scare off aces like you would have if you shoved the river.
 
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Wed May 07, 2014, 05:53 AM
(#3)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
^ lol at folding flop. don't do this.

It's kind of awkward not shoving because we only have a pot sized bet remaining so there's not much we can do.

I think the awkwardness on the river is a result of our turn bet. If we made it $2 OTT then river would be a lot nicer to shove.
 
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Wed May 07, 2014, 06:34 AM
(#4)
baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by birdayy View Post
^ lol at folding flop. don't do this.

It's kind of awkward not shoving because we only have a pot sized bet remaining so there's not much we can do.

I think the awkwardness on the river is a result of our turn bet. If we made it $2 OTT then river would be a lot nicer to shove.
What is your explanation for not folding the flop?

The cost to call here is over 3x what it should be, its the wrong price.

82% of the time here we are paying 70c and folding
18% of the time we will hit
- Of the times we hit, I reckon we get only 1/3 of the time enough action to showdown and then only 50% each street, so thats $6 profit 30% of the time ($2 profit overall per instance)

This is based on our opponent having made a hand 30% of the time that he feels is strong enough to risk with a flush including TPTK, Two Pair, Sets.

This means we will lose $57 and gain $36


The vital pot odds were not on our side
The implied pot odds can't be trusted, especially as we don't have the nut flush draw

I know sticking to pot odds can be too nitty and sometimes its worth gambling once in awhile but to dismiss folding the flop completely seems a bit reckless.
 
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Wed May 07, 2014, 11:35 AM
(#5)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
PF: Why did we call in the CO with 75s vs. a UTG open? This is a mistake IMO.

OTF: CC is ok.
OTT: Bet bigger! Big ace isn't folding, sets aren't folding, and KQ with K of hearts isn't folding.
OTR: If we bet bigger OTT then river shove would be less than a PSB.
 
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Wed May 07, 2014, 11:38 AM
(#6)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
There's a lot more to poker than direct pot odds.
 
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Wed May 07, 2014, 11:42 AM
(#7)
awmm83's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 142
The Nuts should always be shoved on the river. The times you're called should outweigh the value of a lot of small value bets.
I read this in SSNL by Ed Miller and also Harringtons 6 max.
 
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Wed May 07, 2014, 11:49 AM
(#8)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Quote:
Originally Posted by awmm83 View Post
The Nuts should always be shoved on the river. The times you're called should outweigh the value of a lot of small value bets.
I read this in SSNL by Ed Miller and also Harringtons 6 max.
I approve this message... however we don't even have close to the NUTS here... lol

As I said in the post above. Calling an OPEN raise with 75s is a big mistake IMO.
 
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Wed May 07, 2014, 11:58 AM
(#9)
awmm83's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 142
Quote:
Originally Posted by dirt eh View Post
I approve this message... however we don't even have close to the NUTS here... lol

As I said in the post above. Calling an OPEN raise with 75s is a big mistake IMO.
Lol. I'm a dumpling. I didn't follow the hand. Yeah, Pocketones, 7 5 s should only be called in a multiway pot for 100 BB ( Correct me if incorrect)

The odds of flopping a flush are 118-1 so you need massive stacks to call heads up.
 
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Wed May 07, 2014, 12:05 PM
(#10)
baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
BronzeStar
Yeah ok maybe i might be too nitty not calling there , in tournaments i would but in cash i wouldn't.

In cash i look at pot odds a lot more because although it doesnt seem like it, when you see that spot 100s of times and realize just how little the draw comes off and how much of a waste it can be.

Realistically, we want to be on the other side of the fence, our opponent is paying to draw and they dont catch.

It is illogical to say that the opponent we want is one that will pay to draw yet we do the same.
 
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Wed May 07, 2014, 12:11 PM
(#11)
awmm83's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 142
Quote:
Originally Posted by baud2death View Post
Yeah ok maybe i might be too nitty not calling there , in tournaments i would but in cash i wouldn't.

In cash i look at pot odds a lot more because although it doesnt seem like it, when you see that spot 100s of times and realize just how little the draw comes off and how much of a waste it can be.

Realistically, we want to be on the other side of the fence, our opponent is paying to draw and they dont catch.

It is illogical to say that the opponent we want is one that will pay to draw yet we do the same.
In a tournament it's a call for up to 8 % for 100 BB. At the right table of course.
Cash , there are no raising blinds. There's no need to play fast. So it's a fold.
 
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Wed May 07, 2014, 12:56 PM
(#12)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
i don't mind the call as long as utg is a bit spewy post flop/ gives up a lot.

Also if there are rec players in the blinds it's worth it too imo.
 
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Thu May 08, 2014, 09:19 AM
(#13)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
I would fold preflop unless I had a very good read on the utg raiser AND the players left to act. Playing low suited connectors can be fine, but only in the right situations.Here, you have a questionable hand with suited gappers and questionable position.

As played, I would call the flop bet. You caught a flush draw AND there is no A or K on the flop. My biggest concern is what the btn is going to do though. This is where position becomes important and why we need to consider this before making our preflop decision.

As the others point out, I think we can bet more on the turn. The A gives us a flush, but also impacts the actions of the others. If it is a scare card to non-ace hands, they will fold to a half pot bet or a 75% pot bet. They won't be putting more money in the pot. However, if they are holding a decent ace, they will be very likely call a larger bet on the turn. Moreover, as birdayy mentions, a larger turn bet sets up a better stack to pot ratio for jamming on the river.

The river is a bad card for us. It pairs the board. Our flush was less than the nuts to begin with, but now full houses are possible as well. Also, two aces on the board make it less likely that the villain is holding an ace and weaken the value of all the Qx, 9x and 10J hands in his range. The only good hands left in his range that we are beating are the Ax hands.

Chosing the best line on the river will be rather villain dependant, but I would be cautious regardless. Here the villain is loose-passive. If you lead out for between 33% and 50% pot, you will often get called by hands you are beating (trip As), but can get away from the hand if the passive villain raises all in. I wouldn't expect Ax to call an all in river bet on this board too often.
 
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Tue May 13, 2014, 09:13 AM
(#14)
A Beatmaker's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 74
You should filter your cold caling hands in HM or PT. I dont think that even conectors (smaler than T9s) or gapers are +EV against average NL10 player.

Bigger OTT.
 

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