Home / Community / Forum / Poker Education / Texas Hold'Em Cash Games /

NL10- getting it in 3-way with a combo draw

Old
Default
NL10- getting it in 3-way with a combo draw - Thu May 08, 2014, 12:08 AM
(#1)
pockettones's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 151
Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $22.09 (220.9 bb)
Hero (BB): $10 (100 bb)
MP: $20.47 (204.7 bb)
CO: $7.48 (74.8 bb)
BTN: $24.30 (243 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K 6
CO posts BB OOP, MP folds, CO checks, BTN folds, SB completes, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.30) 5 7 3 (3 players)
SB bets $0.30, Hero raises to $0.90, CO raises to $7.38, SB raises to $21.99 and is all-in, Hero calls $9 and is all-in

Turn: ($27.48) 4 (3 players, 2 are all-in)
River: ($27.48) K (3 players, 2 are all-in)

Results:
Click to show hidden text


I thought pot odds were too good to fold. Dont really have any reads but guess they would have sets or 2 pairs, maybe some draws, I assume overcards would be raised pre.
 
Old
Default
Thu May 08, 2014, 03:18 AM
(#2)
baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
BronzeStar
You love your draws!

You had a gutshot and a flush draw, great outs and they number 13.
Since you were keen on the flop to get it in, you get to see all 5 cards so your chances of winning this hand assuming you are behind already are 52%

Your value is fantastic here
You are winning $18.48 52 times ($960.96)
You are losing $9.00 48 times ($432.00)

Difference of $528.96 profit in the long-run... you might get unlucky and not hit your draws but the value is very strong in the long-run.

And in the end you were against two pair vs two pair...and you hit one of your outs to score the straight.. beautiful.

This is a spot where the price was fantastic, well done on the win but if you lose here then as long as you can shake it off, know that it was a good call.
 
Old
Default
Thu May 08, 2014, 10:27 AM
(#3)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
I don't like your play here tbh. You have the second nut flush draw and a gut shot. Why did you choose to raise the SBs flop bet? After 2 players stack of here… I wouldn't be to happy calling off with your hand strength. If we held A6 of hearts… it would be a different story.
 
Old
Default
Thu May 08, 2014, 11:42 AM
(#4)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
I much prefer getting it in with combo draws when I have a pair as I'm in much better shape against any potential better flush draws.

Anyways I think you're up against a set here from the sb very often. Hard to imagine what exactly co has, 2 pair makes sense the most.

I think s.b can show up with the nut flush draw some of the time too which is why i don't like raising the flop-your equity against sets/n.flush draw/two pair isn't terrible ( around 35%) so you have to call off here getting 2:1.

If you add in some worse flush draws it's even better, but then again you could also add in some straights for villains too.
 
Old
Default
Fri May 09, 2014, 02:38 AM
(#5)
pockettones's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 151
@Dirteh I'm raising to build up a pot pretty much, as remember this was all limped. I really don't see why I wouldn't raise given the strength of my hand. Getting folds from weak pair hands is also a favorable outcome as they beat me when I miss my flush and they fold to a bet if I do hit, really not too much implied odds in that scenario. They will however call my raise with weaker draws and 2 pair+, and if they are cally they might call 2 streets with their top pair.

Last edited by pockettones; Fri May 09, 2014 at 02:41 AM..
 
Old
Default
Fri May 09, 2014, 11:42 AM
(#6)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
I know what you're trying to do, however the problem here is your position and your hand strength is so, so. You're in the middle of the sandwich here and you're not drawing to any nut-ted hands. Both villains could be holding 6x. So you could be potentially drawing to a chop when you hit the straight and you're DRAWING to the second NF. Raising and betting in a multiway pot shows a ton of strength which we don't have in this hand.

Yes this was a limped pot... low cards. I would say that there can be 2 pair, sets, flopped straights. A ton of hands that have us crushed and have redraws vs our hand if we hit OTT. Just something to keep in mind.
 
Old
Default
Fri May 09, 2014, 12:31 PM
(#7)
awmm83's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 142
Quote:
Originally Posted by baud2death View Post
You love your draws!

You had a gutshot and a flush draw, great outs and they number 13.
Since you were keen on the flop to get it in, you get to see all 5 cards so your chances of winning this hand assuming you are behind already are 52%

Your value is fantastic here
You are winning $18.48 52 times ($960.96)
You are losing $9.00 48 times ($432.00)

Difference of $528.96 profit in the long-run... you might get unlucky and not hit your draws but the value is very strong in the long-run.

And in the end you were against two pair vs two pair...and you hit one of your outs to score the straight.. beautiful.

This is a spot where the price was fantastic, well done on the win but if you lose here then as long as you can shake it off, know that it was a good call.
Sorry , Baud, a gutshot/flush is only 12 outs. 48% equity all in on the flop.
The call on the flop was $9 to win $17.88 before rake. . The odds are 1.986 :1
I said player has 48% equity. 48% of $17.88 is $8.58. Hero pays more.
I know hero has 3 more outs for Top Pair but top pair can't stand up in this pot.
for this reason I believe it was the wrong call. If my maths is out, I apologise.
 
Old
Default
Fri May 09, 2014, 12:49 PM
(#8)
baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
BronzeStar
How do you see 12?
9 for the flush and 4 for the gutshot, from flop to turn that is 52% and I judged 18.48 as pot value, was I wrong? (On iPhone so can't see now)

Even with your sums he is ahead
He wins 17.88 48 times out of 100 (858) and loses 9.00 52 times out of 100 (468) so it's +profit in the long term

Can someone correct me if I am wrong??




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Old
Default
Fri May 09, 2014, 12:55 PM
(#9)
awmm83's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 142
9 flush cards. 4 for gut shot but one of those gutshout cards is a flush out.
 
Old
Default
Fri May 09, 2014, 01:13 PM
(#10)
awmm83's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 142
Apparently a 12 outer is a coinflip vs an overpair. Against a set it's walking dead. We need to put opponents on hands. I really suck at that .
 
Old
Default
Fri May 09, 2014, 01:17 PM
(#11)
baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by awmm83 View Post
9 flush cards. 4 for gut shot but one of those gutshout cards is a flush out.
Clever man

Still my pot odds are right.

He is profitable making this call.

So with 48% and a pot of $18.48 he is getting great odds to call with $9

We know he loses $468 over 100 hands here ($9 x 52 hands out of 100 that he loses)
To break even he only needs to win $468 and he has 48 hands to do that over.

This means that he is at break even when the pot is $9.75 and it costs him $9 to call
He is getting $18.48 which means that anything above $9.75 is pure profit

EDIT : What skews this is that we are used to making these calls when it is headsup play, we rarely get 2 opponents betting into us and having to make a call compared with occasions that are headsup. We are used to being in a situation where the pot is nowhere near as bloated as it is and a 48% vs 52% hand is not going to be good in the longrun.

However once we add additional opponents into the mix, be they ones that want to compete for the showdown or ones that just contribute dead money to the pot and bail when it is raised, the overlay suddenly makes out 48% hand a massive contender.

Now here is the tricky part.
It is these spots where you feel you are making a bad call based on the odds but you are making a profitable call based on future hands.

If the pot of $100 is asking you to commit your entire $15 stack to win it all, you are getting 15% odds here. This means that you could have a pair with 4 outs to a gutshot, this is 16% chance to the river and although it seems like a massive risk, if you make this move many many times, you will be +EV

Last edited by baud2death; Fri May 09, 2014 at 01:27 PM..
 
Old
Default
Fri May 09, 2014, 01:24 PM
(#12)
awmm83's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 142
I agree with you providing villains have nothing. But, as above, You're dead meat if they have something.
I read it was 13 outs to go to town. I prefer 15 Tournaments are a different animal though. I'd shove 9 outs vs 1 villain. I love fold equity. But it rarely exists in the micros.
 
Old
Default
Fri May 09, 2014, 01:28 PM
(#13)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi guys,

I don't think we are necessarily getting lots of folds, but we should have enough equity to not hate getting it in here. Calling or raising should be profitable, not sure which is more so... I like to call this spot to invite weak hands along behind us and give us a better price on the draw, but our cards may slow action too... the flush is obvious and our straight card puts 4 to a straight on the board.

I too would rather have Ah6h because yeah, it's a disaster if we run into the nut flush draw, but with the K high flush draw we will also overflush them sometimes too, as in limped pots I'd expect players to have suited connectors and 1 gappers, maybe Qx suited and the like.


Head Live Trainer
Check out my Videos

4 Time Bracelet Winner



 
Old
Default
Fri May 09, 2014, 01:29 PM
(#14)
baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by awmm83 View Post
I agree with you providing villains have nothing. But, as above, You're dead meat if they have something.
I read it was 13 outs to go to town. I prefer 15 Tournaments are a different animal though. I'd shove 9 outs vs 1 villain. I love fold equity. But it rarely exists in the micros.
Your outs need to be to a monster
Can't factor in pair outs when commiting such a large decision, in a spot like that you need to draw to a flush or straight as drawing to a set or two pair is a losing proposition in the longrun.

It is nice to have combo's to your draw but these should be something you appreciate once the cards are flipped face up and you realize you are FURTHER ahead on your call, you shouldn't be counting those ahead of time.
 
Old
Default
Fri May 09, 2014, 01:32 PM
(#15)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
I think the problem here is that you're all using the results. Yes this ended up being a profitable call due to the fact that our opponents were holding 53 and 75! We have to put our opponents on a range of hands!


Board: :
       Equity     Win     Tie
BU     36.10%  33.81%   2.28% { 77, 55, 33, 75s, 64s, 53s+, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah2h }
SB     36.10%  33.81%   2.28% { 77, 55, 33, 75s, 64s, 53s+, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah2h }
BB     27.81%  26.54%   1.27% { Kh6h }


I'm giving both villains the same range of hands here. These should all be potential hands that they can have.

Now let's look at if we held


Board: :
       Equity     Win     Tie
BU     32.58%  29.81%   2.77% { 77, 55, 33, 75s, 64s, 53s+ }
SB     32.58%  29.81%   2.77% { 77, 55, 33, 75s, 64s, 53s+ }
BB     34.83%  33.45%   1.39% { Ah6h }


Ahhhh much better... lol
 
Old
Default
Fri May 09, 2014, 01:40 PM
(#16)
awmm83's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 142
All this talk of numbers reminds me of something Ed Miller said. It's all about range vs range. I have both PNLHE and SSNL. I'm reading them tonight ( Not the entire books,I'm not Johnny 5) . And this time i'm not putting them down at the range vs range bit. I still have to properly work out different combos of ranges. But it's laziness. Equilab, here I come!
 
Old
Default
Fri May 09, 2014, 01:46 PM
(#17)
awmm83's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 142
Quote:
Originally Posted by dirt eh View Post
I think the problem here is that you're all using the results. Yes this ended up being a profitable call due to the fact that our opponents were holding 53 and 75! We have to put our opponents on a range of hands!


Board: :
       Equity     Win     Tie
BU     36.10%  33.81%   2.28% { 77, 55, 33, 75s, 64s, 53s+, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah2h }
SB     36.10%  33.81%   2.28% { 77, 55, 33, 75s, 64s, 53s+, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah2h }
BB     27.81%  26.54%   1.27% { Kh6h }


I'm giving both villains the same range of hands here. These should all be potential hands that they can have.

Now let's look at if we held


Board: :
       Equity     Win     Tie
BU     32.58%  29.81%   2.77% { 77, 55, 33, 75s, 64s, 53s+ }
SB     32.58%  29.81%   2.77% { 77, 55, 33, 75s, 64s, 53s+ }
BB     34.83%  33.45%   1.39% { Ah6h }


Ahhhh much better... lol

Tbh I would only chase this if the Ace nut was on the board.Really hate Ks. I know it's losing value, but I hate it. Call from the BB , sure. But I'd be very careful.
 
Old
Default
Fri May 09, 2014, 02:06 PM
(#18)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
@dirt, you can't just factor into their range 2 pair+ and the nut flush draw. What about the guy that thinks 99 is good? What about dominated flush draws like JhTh or dominated combo draws like 5h4h?

PS- I wasn't using results in my response ftr... I didn't even look at the results. lol


Head Live Trainer
Check out my Videos

4 Time Bracelet Winner



 

Getting PokerStars is easy: download and install the PokerStars game software, create your free player account, and validate your email address. Clicking on the download poker button will lead to the installation of compatible poker software on your PC of 51.7 MB, which will enable you to register and play poker on the PokerStars platform. To uninstall PokerStars use the Windows uninstaller: click Start > Control Panel and then select Add or Remove programs > Select PokerStars and click Uninstall or Remove.

Copyright (c) PokerSchoolOnline.com. All rights reserved, Rational Group, Douglas Bay Complex, King Edward Road, Onchan, Isle of Man, IM3 1DZ. You can email us on support@pokerschoolonline.com