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small flush on paired board

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small flush on paired board - Fri May 09, 2014, 02:57 AM
(#1)
thephoenix11's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 186


Ok so i picks up a free flop from the bb. it get's checked around and i pick up a small flush on the turn but it pairs the board. Against 3 opps was i right to keep the pot small by checking then check calling the river or should i have been more aggresive after making the flush?
 
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Fri May 09, 2014, 03:31 AM
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baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
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I don't think you are being beaten by a full house here.
If your opponent had AJ then he is most likely raising the preflop. I am definetely betting my flush on the turn, if he comes over us then lets hope he is one of the shortys and the not bigger stack because its going in.

With a monster, we shouldn't fear too much that we are beat by not having the nuts, chances are STRONG in our favor that we are ahead and stacking off here is automatic if someone plays back at me, especially since we cover everyone on the table and even if the biggest stack holds the full house then if we lose we still have 20 bigs.

Should have raised the river, you were convinced your opponent had a Fullhouse and all he had was King High until he hit on the river.. just goes to show that although it CAN happen, its very rare that a flush is beat there by a full boat.

I believe you lose value there more often than not, especially if your opponent holds an Ace for not betting the turn, mainly because when we raise the river (which we should have done) our value is much strong when we get called by an Ace.

Quote:
Against 3 opps was i right to keep the pot small by checking then check calling the river or should i have been more aggresive after making the flush?
You don't want to keep the pot small there, the pot should be as big as you can get away with. You have the best hand here a MASSIVE amount of the time, the question shouldn't be "am i ahead" the question should be "how do i get max value"

You were still stuck on thinking you might not be ahead so your concern wasn't about getting value.
They might not call a bet on the turn but if it is the choice between 1400 chips vs a fold, id take a fold any day because less than 2BB in value is nothing.. perhaps you bet, perhaps both fold or perhaps they both call.
 
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Fri May 09, 2014, 03:49 AM
(#3)
thephoenix11's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 186
Essentially from watching this again Most of the big hands AA,KK,QQ, AK AQ and AJ can be counted out with a limped pot and checked flop am i right? So thinking i might be behind to higher flush or fh on the turn is probably way off base since more than likely the hands that could have me beat would have either raised pre-flop or bet the flop?

Ahh right so in effect i've scared myself out of getting any possible value at all.

The reason i didn't raise the river is because i couldn't pick a hand that would call that didn't have me beat.

I think looking back i played this all wrong.
 
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Fri May 09, 2014, 04:21 AM
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baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
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Its all about judging how often you are behind here.

I had AK on an AA4 flop the other day. I bet OOP, get called by 2 players.
Turn comes a blank, I bet again and button raises, it goes in and he shows 44.

It was sick of course but it is unlikely my opponent had been dealt 44.
There is however an important difference between unlikely to have been dealt and him having it.. That is important to mention.

This is because the second he raises, it is MORE likely he has 44 than if he didn't raise.
My job now is to judge if I believe him, I use my maths and I use my reads. I judged I was ahead and lost.

More often than not I am ahead here since I only have the second nuts and if i automatically though "he has 44" then i might as well shutdown my PS account because by not taking calculated risks like this, its bingo i should be playing
 
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Fri May 09, 2014, 05:27 AM
(#5)
thephoenix11's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 186
So i shouldn't worry too much about better hands in this situation because i'm more than likely ahead and in the long run i'm going to be ahead here more often than not so it's a profitable play to be betting.
Thing is it's so hard to push all those bad beats away as they happen so often to me and when the do happen, 9/10 it takes my whole stack.
 
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Fri May 09, 2014, 08:30 AM
(#6)
baud2death's Avatar
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Pretty much
Play the situation rather than the history
 
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Fri May 09, 2014, 10:27 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
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Absolutely CANNOT check the turn. I need to make a standard bet, which against 3 opps is 3/4 pot (no more, no less). If I check or bet less, I'm giving the opps the correct odds to try to outdraw me and if they do so and I'd lose the hand.. it would be my own fault.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)

P.S. KK and QQ are definitely NOT to be counted out, as these hands should not be c-betting a flop with this many players in it.


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Sat May 10, 2014, 01:32 AM
(#8)
thephoenix11's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 186
Quote:
Originally Posted by baud2death View Post
Pretty much
Play the situation rather than the history
Tnx. Helps alot.
 
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Sat May 10, 2014, 01:34 AM
(#9)
thephoenix11's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 186
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
Absolutely CANNOT check the turn.
Ouch, alright i get it

hehe. Yeah it was the turn i wasn't sure i got right. Past events and my own lack of confidence lead to the check. Will have to sort it out for future though.

Thanks
 
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Sat May 10, 2014, 02:32 AM
(#10)
baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
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One problem you may also play when getting a monster in the future is slow playing fearing a big hand and then you give your opponents chances to draw a big hand... Becomes a self fulfilling prophecy
 
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Sat May 10, 2014, 02:45 AM
(#11)
thephoenix11's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 186
so playing a flopped straight to soft because it comes with a flush draw? yeah i do that all the time.

But i do that in mind of the level i'm playing. I.E. nl 2 so i'm all too aware that a flush draw on the flop is like a flower shop to a bee.

Not sure if that's me making excuses or a just reason but it's what i'm aware of.

Last edited by thephoenix11; Sat May 10, 2014 at 02:46 AM.. Reason: addition
 
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Sat May 10, 2014, 05:36 AM
(#12)
baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
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The chances your opponents have a flush and you have a straight are not doubt more likely than flush vs full house or set over set since the amount of cards in the deck that can make a flush are 25% of all cards in play.

If it was a straight draw you have that was already a made flush, i treat that the same as i do 4-flushes when i hold any heart that isn't an Ace.
If it was a straight that you have that is a flush draw, you can't be scared of that - its only a 36% chance your opponents can make a flush from the flop and that assumes that they even HAVE 2 of that suit

You can usually tell if an opponent has you beat as well by how much money they want to get from you.
If someone is playing calling station to your bets even with the scare cards that are out there, they are not representing them so why even let it enter your head?

If you bet at a pot and all of a sudden scare cards come, just fold.
I don't recommend that typically but if you bet, bet & bet but then have to fold the river if a scare comes and your opponent is firing at you then this liklihood is so rarely going to happen that all of the times you did get value will absorb it.

Its like flipping a coin. you might flip it 10 times and get a heads everytime... you would think that is crazy and your coin is flawed somehow.

However put that coin-flip over a large enough sample, 100, 1000 or 10,000 instances and you will see 50/50 as the result with a small deviation no doubt on either side.

Probability is very reliable and you need to be ahead of it. You can only be doing that by betting when you have a good and and folding when you don't. By giving up this +EV spot, you essentially skewed your variance in the wrong direction because THIS was one of those spots where you needed to get it in and by not doing so your average results will drop.
 
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Sun May 11, 2014, 02:16 AM
(#13)
thephoenix11's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 186
Yeah i understand what you are saying but i have a big flaw in my game at the moment and i think it's holding onto hands that i should be letting go of. Examples would be C-betting my AK's to death even in multiway draw heavy boards or as said going softly softly on a flopped straight because a flush draw is on and when it hits calling anyway not willing to believe the held the draw.
I got some serious issues with it but i'm getting there.
Thanks for the input guys it's really helping get to grips with looking at hands in a whole new light.
 

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