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Loved this but did i play it right

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Loved this but did i play it right - Fri May 09, 2014, 03:00 AM
(#1)
thephoenix11's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 186


Now this is an interesting one. The table had been playing rediculously loose so i was limping with a much wider range than normal. Playing all small pairs knowing i'd probably get paid if i hit my set which is what happens in this hand.

The question is was i right to let them do all the action or should i have lead?
 
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Fri May 09, 2014, 03:16 AM
(#2)
baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
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Preflop, i can get away from 55 in a double-raised pot.
You have position which is good and the stack to speculate, but its "no set no bet" from the flop

Like the flat on the flop, he can't have hit much there are other than an overpair or a 6, we are crushing anything he could have and need to get the right value from him and since we are the effective stack we can easily get it in by the river.

I like the turn bet, its weak enough that it might be pricing in some of his weaker hands, i think if we check here, our river shove will look a bit off and betting here is the only way to make a bet on the river look balanced, whilst giving him great odds to call it.

Due to the bloated pot preflop, your action didn't represent trips/fh and he was getting priced in to chase his draw, had you re-raised the flop he would have most likely folded.
 
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Fri May 09, 2014, 03:29 AM
(#3)
thephoenix11's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 186
Yeah the table was massively loose. We we're getting 3-4 player's almost all pots. Preflop i'm happy calling the 800 as i know if i hit i'm likely to get paid and the reshove with the 2 calls i figured i was getting the right price for the call.

Post flop i wasn't sure whether to 3-bet or not. I opted for the call but looking back i wasn't sure. Same on the turn i wasn't sure whether i should have checked behind or raised more.

Back to preflop it was defo "no set no bet" though. I'd been speculating a lot of QJ's KJ's suited cards and connectors jst waiting for the hit.

Thanks for the feedback.
 
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Fri May 09, 2014, 04:13 AM
(#4)
baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
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Raising on the flop is forcing your opponent to fold or call rather than giving him a free card and inducing another bet. Also, you have another opponent to act, he might call the bet but is unlikely to call a raise so you lose that bet.

Your main concern should have been to get your opponent to showdown with you whilst keeping the pot as big as possible. I think you accomplished this very well.

When we have a monster we should step out of "do i have showdown value" to "i have won, time to get paid" mode.

You now just need to be thinking "if i raise here, will he call the next street" or "if i call here, what do i have to bet on the next street to get max value"

When we have the best hand we want to stack off so it needs to be a bet that our opponent will call, that is more likely if we build the pot and skew his pot-odds to price him in. This is a great poker tactic that involves convincing the opponent to bleed chips into the pot and then when we bet all-in, he helped us bloat the pot so much that even Ace high gives him pot odds to call!!

Playing the reverse, this is the reason we should avoid weak drawing hands, especially if the pot was raised pre because we can be given the right price to keep calling and end up making a "well i have no choice" decision on the river.
 
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Fri May 09, 2014, 04:21 AM
(#5)
thephoenix11's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 186
Good stuff. So for future reference i should have a think about sizing my bets correctly. Already working on that
 
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Fri May 09, 2014, 10:21 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
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Due to my stack size, I cannot call the 2nd raise. If I want to call preflop to setmine, I need to have 15X the bet in both my stack and the opp's stacks... I don't have this much. Due to this, I need to fold.

Even with the raise to 800, it's a marginal play at best to even call this.. so I'm just mucking it immediately preflop.

There is a HUGE problem with the turn bet in this hand. Anytime I'm in a tourney (except for a league game), where I have to make a bet that will be 1/3 of my remaining stack, I'm pot-committed and cannot ever fold later in the hand. If I bet, I need to make a standard bet, which for 1 opp left with chips is 1/2 pot. This bet pot-commits me, so if I bet, I'd need to shove the turn.

With this being the case, I'm checking the turn and shoving the river.

The biggest key though.. MUCK PREFLOP due to stack sizes.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Sat May 10, 2014, 01:31 AM
(#7)
thephoenix11's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 186
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post

The biggest key though.. MUCK PREFLOP due to stack sizes.

(JWK24)
Normally i would agree with you. But this is one of those rare occasions i think i got the preflop play right. The table was massively loose. I mean every flop had 3-5 players with all ins every other hand or so. Because i had a stack i felt it was worth the risk to loosen up and start playing my connectors and pairs to cheap flops.
Once i call the 800, the all in call is automatic as the shove is less than double the original bet so there's big pot odds for the call.
As said by baud i was playing a hit or bail flop style and as it turned out i hit.

Normally i would agree with you 100% but in this instance i thought i was right. For any hand to hit the reward was massive so seeing lots of cheap flops on this table was profitable. I went on to leave the table with over 70k in chips.

Still a bit unsure as to my post flop play but i'll figure it out once i read the comments over again

Thanks guys.
 
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Sat May 10, 2014, 02:40 AM
(#8)
baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
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I agree with john, preflop was too loose

You will flop a set 12% of the time, and even then you don't have the best set so the instances where it is set over set you might get stuck

To break even here you need to win back 7x as much as you put in and more if you want to be profitable.
This is why we like to only call a small raise at most when set mining because we aren't getting the right price

You shouldn't base your decisions on stack sizes in the way you do. Peeling with 55 is fine but you still need to be getting te right price. The differenc between a big and short stack is the ability to set mine not the yore reign to do it no matter the bet
 
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Sat May 10, 2014, 02:50 AM
(#9)
thephoenix11's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 186
I know it was loose preflop but i kinda justified it with the fact the table was soo loose. i play nl2 and even this was loose by what i normally see.

So back in real world my origional call was unprofitable long term so calling the shove unprofitable and the end result was basically jst a lucky escape?

I'll have to bear that in mind since my aim is long term success, although i'll still take that short term gain but maybe jst that once
 
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Sat May 10, 2014, 05:37 AM
(#10)
baud2death's Avatar
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Posts: 1,249
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Table can be as loose as you think but unless you feel that you can showdown with 55, you are behind unless you flop a set.

Don't forget, loose is bad for small pairs. All you need is for one of those J9 or K6 combos to catch a pair and your stuck.
 
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Sat May 10, 2014, 07:53 AM
(#11)
mytton's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 181
The initial call preflop is marginal, I think, but with the information given I would be calling here. Personally I also use a 15x rule of thumb for set mining and here we have to call 800 from a stack of just over 1200. So we do just have enough, but it's pretty close. So consider other factors. Having two players already in the pot increases the chance of getting paid off if we hit. Perhaps more importantly there are two players behind who could raise us out of the pot (btn and sb). If they are aggro players likely to raise I might well just fold preflop here. If they are passive (you say the table is loose and I get the impression you mean loose passive rather than loose aggro), then go ahead and set mine.

The bb shove is so small it's an easy call second time around, putting 500 into a pot already ten times that.

Postflop I agree with baud2death, you played it fine. With such a strong hand you want to try and find the path of least resistance to get the money in. The Stack/Pot Ratio is quite small so no need for raises or overbets to get it all in.
 
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Sun May 11, 2014, 02:22 AM
(#12)
thephoenix11's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 186
Yeah i normally play 20bb for all pairs under 9's. i'm normally strict on it too but the table was so loose, and in multi pots was passive but lp raisers it turned aggro so i was confident of getting to flop cheaply.
Post flop was confident of getting away from any draws with strict set or fold moves planned.
My decision on the preflop call was all based on action as opposed to my normal ranging. On a tighter or even more aggresive table pre flop this would have been snap fold but the multiway loose passive preflop play of the table was my "do it" moment.
 
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Sun May 11, 2014, 12:09 PM
(#13)
JWK24's Avatar
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For setmining, the number of BB is not relevant. What IS relevant.. do I have 15X the bet in every player's stack involved in the hand, including mine. If the answer is yes, then I can setmine with any pair. If not, then I cannot call to setmine, I need to raise or fold.

John (JWK24)


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Sun May 11, 2014, 03:03 PM
(#14)
thephoenix11's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 186
Yeah i shoulda said i play call 20 not 20bb's. What you mean by 15 X every players stack including mine?
 
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Mon May 12, 2014, 04:39 AM
(#15)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
Hi,

I hope this helps in some way - from a theory prespective.

for set mining to likely to be profitable, when calling an initial raise you want implied odds (the odds you think you can get from villain) of 15x the initial raise amount, and that number has to be smaller than the effective stack size.

In this case,

villian raises to 800, so 800 x 15 = 12,000. So you need at least 12,000 chips (effective stack) to potentially win to make up for all the times that you miss and get over setted, beaten by a flush, etc.

Now the effective stack in this situation is yours, and since you have under 12,000, you can not therefore win at least this amount from villains post flop. The only way that you will be able to do this, is if you think that both villains will stack off. If you believe that both villains will stack off then continue, but really the hand should be folded preflop, because of the fact that you won't win enough to make up for the times you invest and miss, or get oversetted, etc.

Also since the pot is going multiway it becomes more likely that someone else could win the pot - dependent on flop texture of course (Flushes, straights, better sets, etc) instead of being heads-up.

I hope that helps in some way.

Cheers,

Matt

Last edited by pullin1988; Mon May 12, 2014 at 11:35 AM..
 
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Mon May 12, 2014, 11:28 AM
(#16)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,837
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thephoenix11 View Post
What you mean by 15 X every players stack including mine?
Every player involved in the hand has to have 15 times the bet amount in their stack. If someone does not have this many chips, then I cannot call with a pair to try and hit a set.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Mon May 12, 2014, 12:06 PM
(#17)
baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
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The idea of 15x effective stack is that you are making a risk by set-mining. The risk is limping or calling a raise preflop. The reward is hitting your hand and the implied payout associated with it.

You are typically going to hit a set 12% of the time or one in 8.
If the cost to enter the pot each time is 3BB, then over 8 hands you need to 24BB back to break-even and more to gain a profit.

Lets say everytime you enter the pot with your pair, the effective stack is 18BB (6x the bet) and the bet is 3BB, you are always headsup in this scenario.
This means you will invest 24BB and the most you can win during this scenario is 18BB. You are -EV here, and that is assuming that your opponent will pay you off when you hit which isn't guaranteed.

Now lets say you were working to the 15x rule, that means that if the bet is 3BB, your opponent needs 45BB and you will be +21BB in profit.

See the difference?

We don't see our small limps to be a lot but considering that over 8 hands they add up

EDIT : This is also the reason why set-mining becomes less profitable after the first few levels of a tournament. If we are constantly limping in, if we do finally catch a set then we will get paid off much less than we invested. --- Set mine early, only set mine later if the effective stack of the table is 15x the bet

Last edited by baud2death; Mon May 12, 2014 at 12:09 PM..
 
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Thu May 15, 2014, 07:29 PM
(#18)
thephoenix11's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 186
Ok thanks guys. Reading it through it makes sense. Gonna have to read a few more times for it to stick but i see what you lot are getting at. Thanks for the tips.
 

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