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50nl - River 3b Spot

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50nl - River 3b Spot - Fri May 09, 2014, 04:44 AM
(#1)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Thought this was an interesting spot.

Stats

UTG: $188.14 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 20, 3B: 12, AF: 1.8, Hands: 194
RFI UTG: 21%, Flop Cbet: 69%, Turn Cbet: 17%

BTN: $35.41 - VPIP: 100, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 3



UTG is likely to be a reg over the small sample I have on him. 4 tabling. Btn is just a random fish.

I was told on another hand I posted by Gareth to do some more work on ranging before acting, so here goes

Preflop;

I assigned him what I think is a pretty standard UTG opening range.



Flop;

I'd say he's cbetting TP+, flush draws, gutshots etc. He has a high cbet% so I added a few more hands which I myself would check back.



Turn;

Turn defines his range a fair bit in my opinion. Two pair+ would continue barreling, as would a lot of flush draws, straight etc.



River;

So I bet my hand for value against this range because we have 53% equity;

http://www.******************
Board: AcJc5dQh2s
Equity Win Tie
MP3 47.22% 47.22% 0.00% { AdKd, AsKs, KdQd, KsQs, KcQc, AdTd, AsTs, QdTd, QsTs, QcTc, Ad4d, As4s, Ad3d, As3s, Ad2d, As2s, AdKh, AdKs, AdKc, AsKd, AsKh, AsKc, AdTh, AdTs, AdTc, AsTd, AsTh, AsTc, KdQs, KdQc, KhQd, KhQs, KhQc, KsQd, KsQc, KcQd, KcQs }
BB 52.78% 52.78% 0.00% { Ah7h }

It's really weird when he raises. If we look at his range his strongest hand is A2s.

Because we have a lot of very strong hands in our range here, being sets, two pairs, straights, I decide to turn my hand into a bluff and 3 bet the river, because there isn't really any hands in his range that can raise/call.

Is this FPS?

Last edited by birdayy; Fri May 09, 2014 at 04:48 AM..
 
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Fri May 09, 2014, 05:15 AM
(#2)
baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
BronzeStar
I love your analysis, a lot of thought put in for sure.

Our PF call is standard
He is no doubt c-betting a lot of his range here as PRF, i love the call but without any bet on the turn from us, why did we call? If we are calling to check/call to showdown, is our Ace strong enough against his range to see a showdown if he carries on betting at us?

I think the only two plays here are folding to the c-bet if we believe he has a better Ace (which is most likely what is beating us here) or floating the c-bet to bet/fold the turn.

I don't think our hand is strong enough to see a showdown if we have to pay so many bets to do so.

The fact was that our opponent did shutdown after he c-bet and we got a weak turn with check/check.
At this point we should be planning for a small pot.

On the river, I feel you had a thought that you were ahead (and you could well be). I can't agree here based on how passive your play looks. Sure, your opponent is being passive too but the play here makes no sense.

I don't think you are getting value from here the majority of the time and a check/call could be much better. Your hand has showdown value for 1 bet on the river, not 2 in my opinion.
 
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Fri May 09, 2014, 06:15 AM
(#3)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Yeah donking turn here is a bad idea.
 
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Fri May 09, 2014, 07:23 AM
(#4)
GamblingProp's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 714
First of all is villain 3xing as standard?
If not I am not sure his range is standard, could be a lot loose or tight.
Also I am not so sure about the 3bet sizing, wouldn't you go for a shove with KT, sets there?
I would rather bet/fold river but I am interested in hearing others.
 
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Fri May 09, 2014, 10:31 AM
(#5)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
I think that the only value hands that he can have OTR is a set of 2s and A2s. His raise OTR doesn't make much sense so I think his raise here is for thin value. KT, sets and 2 pair type hands aren't checking back OTT. I think that AT and AK can check back sometimes but these hands wouldn't raise the river ad also can't call when we ship it.

This player could also think that we're floating OOP. And we take the exact line of an OOP float. XC, X, and when the villain Xs the turn we lead out OTR.

Let's just say the villains hand looks weak. I don't mind the B/RAI play.
 
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Fri May 09, 2014, 10:38 AM
(#6)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
I like the way you played the hand but if he is a good player can you only get value with A7 vs some weaker Ax and Qx if you have bluffs on the river like a missed draw?

Just wondering because if you have 2nd pair your probably checking so you have Ax or a bluff when betting i think, UTG is repping like A2 and thats about it as far as i can tell i cant see any reason to min raise the river there if he had showdown value and thinks your bluffing why would he turn it into a bluff unless you bet really thin on the river and he has a weak Qx and thinks he can min raise you off of your wider range if thats the case.

Would you ever lead that turn with a turned set? I know your squeezing QQ pre but im just wondering if you would lead the turn.

Nice hand.
 
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Sat May 10, 2014, 02:22 AM
(#7)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
I doubt we can get any value on the river, so I think your initial river bet is a mistake. I also think that calling th flop could be -EV without a backdoor flush draw or backdoor straight draw on this texture versus an UTG range.

Once you get to the river as you did, it depends on villain, their presence of mind, and regginess. You can't represent KT in villains mind, so you are repping AQ and a slowplayed set. I don't mind it, but I think betting in the first place was an error.

Value betting is not about having the best hand, but rather getting called by enough worse hands. While you have the best hand enough when turn goes check check to be ahead often, I doubt you are a favourite against villain's river calling range and that is what we need to be to value bet there.
 
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Sat May 10, 2014, 05:08 AM
(#8)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
Quote:
Originally Posted by GarethC23 View Post

Value betting is not about having the best hand, but rather getting called by enough worse hands.
A fairly innocuous looking sentence but it makes so much sense
 
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Mon Jun 02, 2014, 09:17 PM
(#9)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Don't like the call pre, don't like the call post, don't like the river bet ... and think the river shove is awfully risky.

But I play zoom, and maybe regular tables are different, so who knows ...
 

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