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10nl zoom 6max- best line to take in this spot?

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10nl zoom 6max- best line to take in this spot? - Fri May 09, 2014, 03:28 PM
(#1)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
Villain is an unknown 2 tabler.

I didn't raise flop because it's MW and i've got the K hearts, so there's not too many turn cards I hate.

I think turn is fine to check back, villain could have taken this line w/ a flush draw/set/pair and I don't want to bet fold with so much equity.

The river is a weird spot. I think villain can have the jhearts here pretty easily given the line he took, he may also have been going for a c/raise on the turn with a flush so I took the cautious route and just flatted.

If i raise the river I'm probably folding out everything except the A hearts/maybe the J hearts so is the best line to just call?

Is there any merit to raising the flop? I'll be in a gross spot if he shoves so I didn't like that as an option. Plus I can get value from Jx on plenty of turns and rivers.

 
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Fri May 09, 2014, 04:03 PM
(#2)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Paddy,

I like the CC OTF. OTT... we have to bet this card!!! I don't think that we need to bet/fold OTT tbh. As played I would raise the river for thin value and fold if they RR.

Here's my line from PF to R: R,C,B,B
 
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Fri May 09, 2014, 04:52 PM
(#3)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
I think we would need to fold if we are raised on turn though, what's the worst hand that would c/raise the turn? 89hh?

I don't mind betting the turn and folding to a raise, I would just prefer to check behind in this spot as I can catch up versus some hands that are ahead.
 
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Sat May 10, 2014, 05:04 AM
(#4)
almigthybald's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 94
I would bet/fold the turn, there are some reasons for checking back as you mentionend but on this scary board he will not X/R us with worse and we can get some value / protection on the turn. But I am not completely sure here since its also pretty hard to range him given his line.
 
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Sat May 10, 2014, 08:00 AM
(#5)
geoVARTA's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 1,306
Interesting hand!
I’m trying to think of what sort of hands the SB can call in this situation and lead the flop with
Sets, FDs, TP all make sense. I don’t see too many T9s, 98s, 65s type hands; we could give those hands to the BB but I think we see more folds with those type of hands from the SB (more information on the villain would help us decide here, I guess)
But anyway, let’s just write those hands down so:
Sets: JJ, 77, 44
TP: I’m not sure how many Jx villain can call with preflop I mean it makes sense to fold most AJo hands so it seems their Jx are weighted towards suited Jx: AJs, KJs, QJs, JTs – Let’s give them a few combos of AJo, say they call with 3-4 combos of that.
I think QQ+, AK we would more likely see a 3bet preflop with those hands.
FDs: AhQh, AhJh, JhTh, AhTh
Gutshot/SD + FD: Th8h, 9h8h, 6h5h
PP below TP: TT/99/88 (maybe they do this like 40%)
Against their entire donk bet range we have 60% equity, but let’s think how a raise OTF will manipulate their range. I think mostly we see folds from pps below TP: TT/99/88 and we might see folds from their weakest Jx hands: JTs, QJs and they would continue with everything else which basically is distributed between Sets, TP, and FD combos. Our equity here becomes 46%. So I can see an argument for just calling their bet (considering their betsize also), but I’m really not sure because there’s one opponent left behind us and we don’t necessarily want to give them good odds to call and outdraw us here and we can still get called from worse and get value from their FDs. But since their shoving range will be weighted towards sets and NFDs or hands like 9h8s, 6h5h then I think we can actually raise/fold flop with only 27% equity.
The Qh OTT removes some FD combinations and also because we have the Kh we kind of block other heart combos like KhJh.
Hands that x/f turn are: TT-88, hands that x/c are: AJ, QJ hands that can x/c or x/r: AhTh/AhJh
I think all their weaker Flushes will have to bet turn to deny another heart so the only questionable hands are their JJ/77/44 would they not bet those?
As played, I agree with not raising the river but since they should be betting their non nut flushes then it seems they will have Ah here almost always unless they are going with thin value from their sets that had checked the turn.
Show us the hand

Last edited by geoVARTA; Sat May 10, 2014 at 08:02 AM..
 
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Sat May 10, 2014, 10:16 AM
(#6)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
Totally agree that they should bet their sets ott so I think checking back is a mistake. If i'm raised I know I'm behind and can fold comfortably.

I think that turn check is more in line with with top pair type hands/ strong flush hands than sets.

Maybe raising the flop is a better option without the Khearts? Can raise/ fold easier knowing my equity is shoved on the flop will be low even against semi bluffs.

Anyways here's the hand....surprising? I certainly was surprised.

 

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