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NL10 SH - KKX flop with QQ, 3bet from blinds.

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NL10 SH - KKX flop with QQ, 3bet from blinds. - Sat May 10, 2014, 02:17 AM
(#1)
pockettones's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 151
Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

CO: $6.45 (64.5 bb)
BTN: $16.81 (168.1 bb)
Hero (SB): $17.14 (171.4 bb)
BB: $10 (100 bb)
MP: $14.57 (145.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q Q
MP raises to $0.30, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1, BB folds, MP calls $0.70

Flop: ($2.15) 6 K K (2 players)
Hero bets $1, MP calls $1

Turn: ($4.15) T (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $1.98, Hero calls $1.98

River: ($8.11) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $3.90, Hero folds

Results:
Click to show hidden text


Not sure what my best line should be here. Villain is 25/20/10 AF of 3 with a 50% call of 3bet, 42% fold to cbet so I think I might get called light by smaller pocket pairs as my bet looks pretty bluffy. Dont like my call on the turn, but I thought maybe hes trying to float me with a weak pair.

Last edited by pockettones; Sat May 10, 2014 at 02:34 AM..
 
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Sat May 10, 2014, 05:22 AM
(#2)
almigthybald's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 94
On this flop we can get two streets of value from worse hands (mainly PP) as a guideline imo.

I personally would X the flop and than go for a X/C flop, X/C turn and X/F river line here or a bet turn and river myself line if he checks back the flop.

But c-betting here is fine too imo especially since there are also some FDs in his range, but I would follow up with a bet on the turn and than X/F this river.

By checking the turn (and than supposedly the river as well if he would have checked back) you are missing some value from hands like JJ QQ and maybe some Tx flop floats and you make it easier to let him bluff you off the hand imo.
 
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Sat May 10, 2014, 05:44 AM
(#3)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Really dont see any reason to cbet flop.
 
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Sat May 10, 2014, 10:27 AM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi all,

I agree on not betting this flop.

This would make a nice hand example for today's Range Analysis Workbook live training class... the class is already prepared but maybe you can email me the hand history and I'll use this hand in the next one.

I did some range analytics here similar to what we'll do in today's live training. Preflop, if we take a 20% open and reduce it to 10% (since he calls our 3b ~ half the time) that range is pretty pocket pair heavy, and thus we are usually ahead on this flop.

If we bet the flop, I gave him a check/call range of all better hands and flush draws, pocket pairs 77-QQ, and ace high (the worst ace high at this point is AJ). We are still ahead of that range, so the c-bet should be profitable if he calls with all this. It may not be the most profitable line however....

The turn is a real problem. If we bet, I would assume he throws away ace high (except nut flush draws) and pocket pairs below TT, we are a decided underdog vs. what continues, so this bet is not really profitable.

If we check, that enables us to get to the river vs. a range we are ahead of by keeping his 99-/ace high in to the river. But it's not clear to me we can get money in on the river profitably regardless... if he bets the river, will he do that with hands like 99 and AQ, or will he check/call or check/fold them? It's quite probable when he bets the river in this scenario, we are a dog to his betting range. What about checking, will he call to bluff catch us with enough worse hands? Again, it's not clear, probably not.

I hope all that isn't to convoluted to follow. The moral of the story is when we c-bet the flop, while that seems profitable in and of itself, it thins out enough worse hands that there's no really good way for us to put any more money in the pot profitably on the turn and river. If we check the flop however, now his entire preflop range gets to the turn. It includes air that may bluff (this specific turn card turns that into a pair or straight draw/gut shot, even more likely to bluff at us imo), and a number of worse pairs that may bet for thin value and protection, or check-call us more liberally to bluff catch. We can call turn and river to pick off bluffs and have enough equity if he's willing to bluff twice (which if he's aggro post flop, he might), or we can bet for thin value if checked to on either street and be more likely to get bluff caught, enabling us to put in money twice in a profitable manner, instead of just once like when we c-bet the flop.


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Last edited by TheLangolier; Sat May 10, 2014 at 10:32 AM..
 
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Sat May 10, 2014, 10:37 AM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Edit: I read us as being in position, we are OOP so we can't check behind him on the turn.

The turn as played, checking still creates a similar problem. Will he bluff at us often enough to continue profitably? It's not clear. Our flop c-bet folded out combos that would have turned a straight draw or paired the ten, so there's less worse hands for him to put money in the pot with now, and more of the worse made hands may simply check behind planning to call a river bet bluff catching us and show down.

It all circles back to the flop c-bet pushing out parts of his range we are completely destroying, and making the strength of his remaining range that gets to the turn problematic for us.


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Mon May 12, 2014, 12:14 PM
(#6)
pockettones's Avatar
Since: Mar 2013
Posts: 151
Thanks Ill think on what you said, will watch the replay of range analysis it looks like something I need to work on.
 

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