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Good fold or bad fold?

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Good fold or bad fold? - Sat May 10, 2014, 11:06 AM
(#1)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
Where did I made mistake in this hand post-flop?

It's $11 Phase event with multiple Day 1 and Day 2 being the final day. On Day 1 it's very weird structure unlike normal games where you play Day 1 for 7-8, in this game you need to play 1 hour 15 mins and Day 1 is over. Now on Day 2 you return to play until the winner which I think will be 7-8 hours. It's 8 mins blind level. So only 9 levels on Day 1.

This is the first hand opponent played from first 7 hands he got dealt, so screenshot is just after the this hand happened. That's why his VPIP is 13 (So he is 100% unknown) & he is from Poland if that helps and he is playing $0.05/$0.10 PL Omaha H/L Three cash tables on the side.



I had many options:

1. Check-raise flop.

2. Bet, but now he raised which he can do with 8 pair as they tend to think they have to protect top pair against multiple oppenents. So they will always raise top pair on semi-wet board.

3. Now I got 2-Bet, I can do the following:
a) I can 3-Bet and fold to 4-bet. As I think they are not capable of 4-betting with like A8. THIS IS WHAT I DID.
b) I can smooth call 2-Bet against multiple opponents and re-evalaute on turn.
c) Directly fold to 2-Bet, which sound's too nitty,


So now ranging part:
Either he has 88, 45, 67 OR for semi-bluff he can have only 56, 78. So 2 hands beat me, 2 hands can semi-bluff and 1 hand is a tie i.e. 45 (same hand)

PS: If he is Tom Dwan then he can have AK and 4-bet into multiple opponents with air.


STATS :

Last edited by adikumar2010; Tue May 13, 2014 at 09:17 PM.. Reason: Spelling Errors
 
Old
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Wed May 14, 2014, 12:28 AM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Hi adikumar2010!

With 45o in the SB, I get two limpers in front of me. In most cases, I'm just going to let this hand go early. I am priced in to see the flop and complete if the BB does not raise (12.5% pot equity vs 18% hand equity), but being OOP postflop with most likely bottom pair, if I even hit, I'd rather save the chips for a better spot, when I'm in position.

I flop two pair and I need to make a value bet here to also get the lead in the hand (I do not want to check and risk giving a free card to this wet of a board, so check/raising is not an option that I want to consider). The key is the sizing of it. With 3 opps in the pot, I need to bet 3/4 pot (30 chips). I then get raised to 130, which is called. I'm going to flat here and see the turn.
With 2 pair, I'm not going to fold to this bet, but I do not want to raise either. Yes, I'm ahead of one pair and the draws.. but I'm not necessarily ahead. The only way that I want to raise here is if the opp's bet prices in the draws... which this bet does not.

I'm going to call the raise to 130 and re-evaluate on the turn. If it is not a scare card, I'll make a standard value bet on the turn. If it is a 4th card to the straight, then I need to let my 2 pair go to a sizable bet by the opp.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Old
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Wed May 14, 2014, 12:27 PM
(#3)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
But most probably 'real_lapd' is drawing as he cold-called a raise and 'TuomasT' has a legit hand like top pair/two pair/set/straight.

If I also call the raise of 130, then real_lapd is drawing for cheap against two opponents. I made a 3-bet coz I don't want real_lapd to keep chasing draws for cheap. Also I am out of position, I wouldn't know whether I am ahead or behind if turn card does not connect to the board like J, Q, K, A

That's the reason I 3-bet is to make expensive for 'real_lapd' to keep drawing. But when 'TuomasT' 4-bet I can't think he can do it with worst hand then mine.

Looking at it do you think it was correct fold ?

I know I shouldn't have 3-bet in the first place but board was semi-wet and many turn cards can be bad for me as I have bottom two pair.

Any 6 7 8 9 almost 15 cards are worst for me, if turn comes a 2 or 3 then it doesn't change much. 4 and 5 are best but I still don't know if I have the best full house as it will be the lowest full house.

I am not scared and wanted to end the hand with my 3-bet there. I was thinking of making opponents pay real heavy for there draws, coz even some draws on this board will have very good equity against two pair. Hands like 56, 78 most probably will not fold to a 3-bet as they are drawing strong but will pay huge to see cards.

Last edited by adikumar2010; Wed May 14, 2014 at 12:30 PM..
 
Old
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Wed May 14, 2014, 04:26 PM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adikumar2010 View Post
If I also call the raise of 130, then real_lapd is drawing for cheap against two opponents. I made a 3-bet coz I don't want real_lapd to keep chasing draws for cheap.
This is not true. The opp is putting 130 chips into a pot that will be 330 when they go in, which is 39.4% pot equity. The best draw that the opp can have is an OESD, which is 8 outs.. and worth only 16% equity. Therefore, if the opp is drawing, they expect to lose at least 23.4% of their chips every time they call the 130.

Due to this, I do not need to raise and will call the 130. 3-betting will fold out worse and get called by better and bloat the pot out of position... things that I don't want to have happen.

John (JWK24)


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Old
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Thu May 15, 2014, 11:13 AM
(#5)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
I have a simple question, if we have a fairly strong hand and we get raised. Why can't we 3-bet and laydown if he 4-bets. Now you will say betting for information is bad play and good players will exploit it by 4-betting you wide. But there are no good players in these micro-stakes. Maybe 2% of the field has a pro playing these stakes. So if we 3-bet, it will be easier for us to play hand in future streets suppose he 4-bets we can fold as weak players never 4-bet and if he calls our 3-bet you can pretty much narrow his range down to 4-5 combos.

I will give you two examples when we are behind:
Pot is 1000 on the flop, Blind are 100/200. And we are heads-up.

Scenario 1 when I am beat:
1) I bet 500, he raises to 1100. Now I can 3-bet 2000. If he 4-bets I fold and lose 1500 chips in 3-betting.
2) I bet 500, he raises to 1100. I call. Pot is now 3200 on turn. I check he bets 2000 and I call with my two pair. Next river card, I check and he bets again 5000 (pot is 7200 now on river). I fold.

- So I lost 2000 chips in Case 2 whereas if I had 3-bet and fold to 4-bet I will lose 1500 as in Case 1. Money saved is money earned in poker.

Scenario 2 when I am ahead:
1) I bet 500, he raises to 1100. Now I 3-bet to 2000. And he flat calls. Pot is now 5000. Plus I have narrowed down on his range very well. And can check-fold to a turn card which helps him.
2) I bet 500, he raises to 1100. I call. Pot is now 3200 on turn. I check and he checks behind. River I make value bet and he folds as he missed his draw.

- Case 1: I made 3-bet, he is sticky on his draw and called and I get him to put extra 900 in the pot in order to chase his draw. If turn doesn't change anything I can get him to put more money to see river card.
- Case 2: I am ahead and pot is very small plus he takes a free ride to river, just coz he raised me on flop and I got scared. So turn went check through.
(I use this play sometimes against weak players, coz they get scared of my flop raise when I am chasing OESD. and they check-check turn, I get to river with no turn bet. Wheereas if I play OESD passively and call his flop bet I am sure the turn bet will be bigger amount then the amount I would have raised him on flop. Suppose he bet 500 on flop and I raise 1100, he calls. I lost 600 extra in making this move. But if I call his 500 flop bet and on turn he will fires 1200. So I need to pay 600 extra that means I lose 600 extra in chasing draw passively, I hope you get understand this)

PS: Think of them as weak players and not good players who can exploit this by 4-betting light.
Also I think money saved on flop is better then money lost on later streets.

* Maybe my whole thought process can be completely wrong of how I precieve poker. But I thought maybe I can correct it by telling what I think usually.

Last edited by adikumar2010; Thu May 15, 2014 at 11:25 AM..
 
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Thu May 15, 2014, 12:17 PM
(#6)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adikumar2010 View Post
But there are no good players in these micro-stakes.
If you think that, you're sorely mistaken. While there are a very large number of recreational players at these stakes (and higher stakes too), there are a number of very good players in them.

Do not judge players by what stakes they're playing. Do not judge a player by how many stars they have.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner



Last edited by JWK24; Thu May 15, 2014 at 12:29 PM..
 
Old
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Thu May 15, 2014, 12:22 PM
(#7)
JWK24's Avatar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adikumar2010 View Post
Case 2: I am ahead and pot is very small plus he takes a free ride to river, just coz he raised me on flop and I got scared. So turn went check through.
(I use this play sometimes against weak players, coz they get scared of my flop raise when I am chasing OESD. and they check-check turn, I get to river with no turn bet. Wheereas if I play OESD passively and call his flop bet I am sure the turn bet will be bigger amount then the amount I would have raised him on flop. Suppose he bet 500 on flop and I raise 1100, he calls. I lost 600 extra in making this move. But if I call his 500 flop bet and on turn he will fires 1200. So I need to pay 600 extra that means I lose 600 extra in chasing draw passively, I hope you get understand this)
If you give them a free ride to the river, then the OPP gets to make a +EV play, so since you are making a -EV play... you deserve to lose the hand and WILL lose chips to the opp on average.

This is not a play that I want to make, as it's a losing play long-term.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 

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