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5nl FR Zoom - 98s

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5nl FR Zoom - 98s - Mon May 12, 2014, 08:30 AM
(#1)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
Hi guys,

Could you please analyse my hand below

Villain's stats: VPIP/PFR/AG factor/Cbet stat

sample size 436 hands 9/4/1.8/50

EP PFR stat is 5% = So he is strong


Preflop, I called because of the price, and there were fish behind that I believed at the time would call.

Flop

villain check and I bet thinking that I could either take it down, or if villian calls then I could maybe hit my flush

Turn

villain checks and I check to see river

River

Villain bombs it, and I call.

Now after this has happen I think this was a bad call, or am I being results orientated?

I think his post flop aggression factor helps here at 1.8 indicating that he is quite passive.





Cheers,

Matt

Last edited by pullin1988; Mon May 12, 2014 at 08:32 AM..
 
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Mon May 12, 2014, 08:39 AM
(#2)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
I think river is a really easy fold.

We have a 9 high flush on a paired board where a nittish looking player is betting 7 times pot. All adds up to either the nut flush, which is unlikely, because I doubt someone with those stats is raising Kx Spades from EP at FR (Probably not at 6 max either), or more likely AAA33, JJJ33 or TTT33.
 
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Mon May 12, 2014, 09:25 AM
(#3)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
yep, I made a bad call.
 
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Mon May 12, 2014, 10:05 AM
(#4)
baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
BronzeStar
Preflop is fine, nice speculative hand in a fairly good position.
Flop, i am looking to draw to this if I can, the Ace is a nice card to have showing on the flop because any Ace will give me action. I don't like leading here though, we didn't raise preflop so what are we representing? A rag 3? Ax? - its donk-betting and doesn't really serve our goal here which is drawing for the best price.-- Had we raised pre, this move is fine but we didn't so it shows we are reacting to the flop and the only hands we could have are Ax or 3x to lead.
Turn, we shutdown and our hand is face-up right now, we either have nothing and bluffed the flop or we have a semi-bluff which is only really a draw.
River, I hate this move, why are we shoving the river here? - We are telling our opponent that most likely we were betting a flush draw then when the flush fills in we shove, it isn't hard for our opponent to put us on a flush here and he is only calling if he can beat us either with the nut flush or a full house. I would have much preferred a value bet here because we give hands much weaker than ours (like Ax) the chance to call and also give us an exit strategy if we feel our opponent is stronger. If our opponent is a good player, he will raise our river bet enough that we will call and if we do then we lose some but not a lot.

I had no idea what the opponent had when I made the above comments and played the hand street by street, i suspected that a full house was the loser here because a) its zoom b) i doubt you would be asking for analysis if your flush held up.

In conclusion, you were behind to a cooler but you believed you had the best hand. You put yourself in a way ahead / way behind situation and gave your opponent a bet that he could only call if he had you beat. So best case you win a small pot and lose value on the river vs worse hands and worst case you are being called by better... perhaps he would shove your river bet, perhaps you call it anyway or perhaps you fold but that choice was taken away when you shoved the river.
 
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Mon May 12, 2014, 10:11 AM
(#5)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
It's not a donk bet on the flop if we are betting vs a missed cbet.

I don't mind the bet on the flop, a nit may fold the better hand at that point.

And hero called the shove here, he didn't shove.
 
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Mon May 12, 2014, 10:14 AM
(#6)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
baud2death,

thanks for the advice,

but could revise a few things and give advice accordingly - I think the replayer didn't play it properly for you:

I didn't make a donk bet or lead on the flop as I am IP and villain didn't cbet.

where you said about hero shoving; I didn't shove, villain shoved the river and I called. Therefore I can not make a value bet on the river, since villain was first to act and he shoved his remaining stack in.

Please could you revise, as I would very much like your input.

Cheers,

Matt
 
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Mon May 12, 2014, 10:31 AM
(#7)
baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
BronzeStar
The replayer must be off here then... please ignore my previous comments
 
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Mon May 12, 2014, 01:25 PM
(#8)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
I'd sometimes fold pre, but since this villain isn't very aggro post-flop (unlikely to barrel and charge us a bunch to chase a draw) calling is viable. Attracting overcalls by the blinds is also beneficial, as you pointed out.
The flop action is interesting. When villain checks, he either flopped the world with AA, or he hates the board because he has KK/QQ/JJ/TT. You could check behind and take the free card, or you could commit to barreling him off his underpair. (KK-TT is always calling at least one street).

In short, you're always behind when villain check-calls the flop, so now you have to work out whether you can get one pair hands to fold, or whether you should cut your losses and try and suck out for free.
On the turn, checking to get a free card seems natural, but what is your river play? If you make a flush, you won't get paid by KK, and if you miss the flush, a bluff has no chance of success. (The bet-check-bet line is always getting looked up). In a sense, you kind of have to triple barrel whether you hit or not, or you should give up right now.
As played, you check, and I don't have a big problem with that, but I would prefer a triple barrel. On the river, when villain shoves, you simply never have the best hand. He's probably trying to make up for missed value with AA/JJ, or hit a 2-outer on the river with TT, and the overbet is the right play if he thinks you have flushes in your range, which of course you do.
I'd be exceptionally surprised if this particular villain ever has a flush here. Based on his stats, only KQss makes sense, but that would usually bet the flop. Most of the time he's value-jamming a boat, as this guy is NEVER bluffing, so you have to fold.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Mon May 12, 2014, 04:03 PM
(#9)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
Hi Arty,

Poker really is a difficult game. The problem is, I haven't got the mind skills (yet) to know all these different moves - lol. I am also not very good at the moment in identifying when to do particular lines (triple barrel, etc) - takes time I guess. It's also difficult to know how particular lines are working i.e. are they profitable, until you have a huge sample size (which takes time) and can check on HEM2, etc.

So Arty in short, and I know it depends on alot of things, but since this player type is passive, and plays scared (probably according to his agg factor stat) then it's likely that when a Flush hits, this villain type is always more than likely (not always) check/fold when he is behind. Since villain check the flop, then he either has a monster (wanting me to catch up), or he is behind and wants to get to showdown cheaply. By triple barreling, you most likely to extract the most out of this villain if you do hit your Flush on the river, and it will be sort of disguised - since betting the turn when hero doesn't flush up. Also it would look like you have an Ace, and so more than likely get this villain type holding KK, QQ, etc to fold on the turn because he is scared of the ace (as indicated by villian not betting the flop)

Usually I would just check it down if I miss the flush and so won't be doing the bet-check-bet line (that might not be optimal, but in terms of post flop play I really am a beginner). Does what I have said in the previous paragraph seem like a good thought process for a triple barrel?

I knew the call was not great (after), but I sometimes get the urge and make those hero calls (probably lose a ton)

Cheers....the learning process continues, but most importantly, never ends!

Matt

Last edited by pullin1988; Mon May 12, 2014 at 04:38 PM..
 
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Mon May 12, 2014, 04:25 PM
(#10)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,346
The thought process outlined in your second paragraph sounds excellent.

I agree that poker is a lot harder than it seems on the surface, particularly as you need to get the right plan for a situation in a matter of seconds. (Much of this comes with experience). It's not just about playing your hand. You need to think about your opponent's tendencies and - perhaps more importantly - his range. On an A33 flop, the EP nit is either super strong (top boat) or he's very marginal (underpair). When he's weak, the typical way for you to play is aggressive, as you have a lot of fold equity if you come out firing multiple barrels. This "scared nit" is easy to run over when he's weak.
If he's slow-playing a monster, then you do best by minimising your losses, by checking it down, hoping to improve for free. Probably the worst thing to do is "compromise" and play one street aggressively and the others passively.
Having a plan for your hand is crucial here. When you see the flop, you should have a plan right there. Something like "I will bet my flush draw, and if he calls, I'll fire all turns and all rivers too, because this nit can't call down with one pair, and he won't pay off a flush anyway". Alternatively, against a calling station, you might say "This guy is never folding an ace, so I'll just check all the way to take free cards, and only put money in the pot if I hit the flush". You should also say to yourself right at the start that "This nit never bluffs, so I'll give him a lot of credit if he puts a lot of money in the pot".

It sounds kind of silly, but I have much greater success (and much easier decisions!) if I make most of my decisions on the flop, or even pre-flop. Against a maniac for instance, I'll literally say to myself pre-flop "If I make middle pair or better, I'm calling all three streets unless the board gets really ugly, because this villain is a spewtard". With a plan in mind, your decisions become so much less stressful, since you've already decided what you'll do before the timebank clicks in. When you're not under stress, your decisions will be correct more often than not, and correct decisions mean profit.

Don't beat yourself up about a bad call. I do that often too. It's brutal losing a stack like this, because it will take 1000 hands to regain the lost money, but think of it as an opportunity to learn. Remind yourself, "I won't pay off a nit's overbet when I just have a medium flush on a paired board" and hopefully you won't make the same mistake again.


Bracelet Winner
 
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Mon May 12, 2014, 04:38 PM
(#11)
pullin1988's Avatar
Since: Apr 2013
Posts: 717
Cheers Arty!

Matt
 

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