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10nl 6max flopped straight in 3way pot facing two all-ins

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10nl 6max flopped straight in 3way pot facing two all-ins - Mon May 12, 2014, 03:30 PM
(#1)
r0o_'s Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 6


UTG playing 26/24/20/0 over 42 hands, seat 5 playing 45/0/0.8/0 over 170 hands.

seat 5 is a weaker player and when I check raise flop I'm hoping to gii vs him and squeeze utg out if he has anything marginal like a single pair hand or weak draw. When utg shoves I hate my life as I feel against his range im either against a set or a hand which has me crushed already.

Not worried about seat 5 as he will show up with enough pairs, 2pairs, sets, and draws.

Would it ever be right to fold this spot? Opinions please
 
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Mon May 12, 2014, 03:38 PM
(#2)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
KQs (Maybe offsuit too depending on which way they configure their own ranges) is a very real possibility for one of them and I guess a set for the other. Maybe they both have sets. All the same, and like you said, I am hating life.

I would probably end up making a very annoyed fold, watching the hand play out, and either feeling like an absolute genius or an absolute idiot depending on what they show up with.

End of the day, I think one is capable of spazz, but to hope both are in there with worse hands when they get it in on that board and we have the 'idiot' end of the straight is optimistic. Not saying it would be wrong but we have to be prepared to be on the wrong end of things a decent amount of the time.
 
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Mon May 12, 2014, 03:48 PM
(#3)
r0o_'s Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 6
tough one I think - I wanted to fold, and having discussed it with a reg who was on the table he thought its always a call cos there's enough 2p, sets and draws + weak player in hand, and if its a cooler then so be it, next hand move on.

However if I'm 3betting the flop here can it be right to bet/fold? There are so many bad turns my initial thought was get the money in asap so should I ever deviate from that line?

UTG looks stupidly strong when he shoves but he will do the same with 99 tt jj. Can anyone do the math in poker stove to see what my hand plays like against his range of 99 tt jj qks and qko all combos please? Maybe even chuck in qq, but I think we can leave kk and aa out as they won't want to get all in on flop
 
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Mon May 12, 2014, 04:03 PM
(#4)
bhoylegend's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 2,261
UTG can have all overpairs I think, initial caller probably cant have AA or KK, I think given the action that the below ranges are close but don't include spew hands of which there are undoubtedly some.

I think we're getting good odds but only if we think we are ahead. If we're behind then we are likely drawing dead.

Board: 9cTdJs
Equity Win Tie
SB 14.36% 14.00% 0.36% { 8h7h }
UTG 30.97% 21.47% 9.50% { 99+, KQs, KQo }
MP 54.67% 45.18% 9.50% { JJ-99, KQs, KQo }
 
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Mon May 12, 2014, 04:14 PM
(#5)
r0o_'s Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 6
Thanks man although I think when UTG shoves its borderline whether he ever has kk or aa. I know sample size is small but I had played with him previously before running a HUD and have him down as tag at the tighter end of the scale (so sample over 40 hands could be skewing it), and not the kind of guy to spew off much

The other player in the hand will have a much wider range here, he had been spewing chips/ getting lucky with marginal hands and playing far too many pots. I think he can have any top pair hands, any 2p hands, any straight draw, and pair + straight draw and I can even see him getting carried away with ak.
 
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Mon May 12, 2014, 04:50 PM
(#6)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
What do you think your hand strength looks like to utg when you put in that raise? This board is too co ordinated for utg to cbet bluff MW, he's targeting the rec with a strong hand when he cbets imo.

Now when he sees your raise I would think he mucks aa/kk and probably shoves sets plus. I dont know if he's the type to shove a pair and s.draw here. I would range him as 99/1010/JJ/KQ/same hand some of the time.

The rec player has a monster. No question. So when both players have monsters I think we have to fold. Sure we could have the best hand, and it's a good price. All sets have 7 outs otf, possibly improving to 10 ott. So the hands we are ahead of will still win this pot some 36% of the time.

There are 9 combinations of sets in both villains range. There are 16 combinations of KQ.

Also look at the rec players aggression stats! Passive player suddenly getting raise/call happy on a co ordinated flop!? Edit: I see you think the rec could be doing this pretty wide, that changes things.

Q8 suited should probably be included in cold callers range at least.


One last point: I think we have a gross spot here with something like pocket nines, I would be more inclined to call given the price with a set given how often we can improve, but I'm wondering what we do with 999 here?

Last edited by Paddy Gar; Mon May 12, 2014 at 05:34 PM..
 
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Mon May 12, 2014, 06:54 PM
(#7)
r0o_'s Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 6
I think my hand looks strong to the utg player and can only be sets and straights, and i knew this at the time; hence why when he shoves he can also only really have sets and straights. I also think he folds aa and kk and qq would be the only pair and sd he might go with. I really wasn't too concerned with the rec because he is a massive calling station, and had a super wide range. I guess thats a mistake because I almost played it as if it was a hu pot, and I think when its hu thats always a spot to get the money in

Let me know if you want results.

I think with 99 on that flop, same situation, its not so different to having the bum end of the straight
 
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Mon May 12, 2014, 07:09 PM
(#8)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
Quote:
Originally Posted by r0o_ View Post
I think my hand looks strong to the utg player and can only be sets and straights, and i knew this at the time; hence why when he shoves he can also only really have sets and straights. I also think he folds aa and kk and qq would be the only pair and sd he might go with. I really wasn't too concerned with the rec because he is a massive calling station, and had a super wide range. I guess thats a mistake because I almost played it as if it was a hu pot, and I think when its hu thats always a spot to get the money in

Let me know if you want results.

I think with 99 on that flop, same situation, its not so different to having the bum end of the straight
Would like to see hand review first before results mate
 
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Mon May 12, 2014, 08:26 PM
(#9)
awmm83's Avatar
Since: May 2013
Posts: 142
The cut off's move on the flop looks like a Scandinavian min raise.It's normally a tournament play. The normal response to that move is to shove all in suspecting a draw. To shove over this play in cash shows great strength to me. The fact the cutoff calls is even stronger ( Gap concept) Either one of them could have kq. Hey they both could have it. Who knows? I personally, would only have called this from the sb if 3 players were in already, because the sb is the worst position in poker and therefore needs bigger odds. And the bb could so easily blow you out.
 
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Tue May 13, 2014, 01:57 AM
(#10)
PSO-xflixx's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,119
(Live Trainer)
Hey r0o_,

I like leading out OTF in this particular dynamic as the other options will look so incredibly strong like checkraising multiway or 3-betting the minraiser here.

I have stoved a couple of different situations with different ranges for each player and a looser range for the minraising guy (as you posted he would be a recreational player) but never came up with more than 25% equity. Your action should make the UTG openers continuing range extremely strong which will make him have KQ and sets more often which in turn decreases your multiway equity drastically.

I guess you could make an argument for making a tough fold given that you have to call ~11 into 28 now which is less than you need for 25% (and 25% was optimistic already).


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Tue May 13, 2014, 02:57 AM
(#11)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Interesting spot! UTG is quite aggressive. I think he could be shoving this flop with sets, KQ and possibly some drawing hands such as QJ, AQ. The CO is the person I am worried about. If I understand the stats you posted, he has never raised preflop in the 170 hands you have on him. That is incredibly passive! What are his postflop stats like? I am assuming he is a calling station. Thus, when he raises the c-bet, I don't see him getting fancy or doing this with two pair type hands. At worst I would expect him to have a set, but 78, Q8 and KQ are definately in his range. With so many hands on the villain we should be able to say something about his postflop tendancies which in turn would allow us to narrow his range. Does he ever raise postflop with less than the nuts?

As the others have mentioned. We are at the bottom end of the straight. We can't improve on latter streets, but most of the hands in the villains' ranges can improve. Your 3b looks super strong yet everyone stays in the hand.

I messed around with ranges in Pokerstove and ended with the following:
UTG (33% equity) 99, 1010, JJ, QQ, QJ, KQ and AQ
CO (56% equity) 99, 1010, JJ, Q8 and KQ
Hero (10% equity)

If we give the CO a wider range, for example the same as utg then they have 35% each and you have29% equity. You need to pay your remaining $11.65 to win a pot of $40 which gives you 29% pot odds. Thus, with the ranges I put the CO on, you are breaking even at best, but more likely to be losing money by calling.

Imo, it all boils down to what range we put the CO on. I could see a calling station calling on the flop with a very wide range of hands, but he didn't call, he raises. How often has he raised postflop?

I would fold here and wait for a better spot. You have a strong hand, but it is not the nuts.

PS: I hope you made notes on these two after seeing the showdown.
 
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Tue May 13, 2014, 03:38 AM
(#12)
baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by bhoylegend View Post
KQs (Maybe offsuit too depending on which way they configure their own ranges) is a very real possibility for one of them and I guess a set for the other. Maybe they both have sets. All the same, and like you said, I am hating life.

I would probably end up making a very annoyed fold, watching the hand play out, and either feeling like an absolute genius or an absolute idiot depending on what they show up with.

End of the day, I think one is capable of spazz, but to hope both are in there with worse hands when they get it in on that board and we have the 'idiot' end of the straight is optimistic. Not saying it would be wrong but we have to be prepared to be on the wrong end of things a decent amount of the time.
I would hope I would have the discipline to fold here but might end up calling and hating myself for doing so.

I would fear KQ here because it is in so many ranges and who is betting a set or two pair into that flop?

Flip it another way.. if you had hearts but not the higher hearts, with so much action would you fear a better flush?

There is nothing worse than stacking off with 2nd nuts only to be shown 1st nuts. It hurts when its AA vs KK preflop, it hurts when it is set over set and in bottom/top straight scenarios.

With so much action I would really be shocked if it was a showdown like 2 pair vs a set or top pair vs a set/two pair.

You know those situations where opponents shove it all in and all you have is top pair so you fold, they showdown and its flush draw vs underpair, you miss out on the Triple Up.

--- I don't think this is one of those situations.
 
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Tue May 13, 2014, 01:29 PM
(#13)
r0o_'s Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 6
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roland GTX View Post
Interesting spot! UTG is quite aggressive. I think he could be shoving this flop with sets, KQ and possibly some drawing hands such as QJ, AQ. The CO is the person I am worried about. If I understand the stats you posted, he has never raised preflop in the 170 hands you have on him. That is incredibly passive! What are his postflop stats like? I am assuming he is a calling station. Thus, when he raises the c-bet, I don't see him getting fancy or doing this with two pair type hands. At worst I would expect him to have a set, but 78, Q8 and KQ are definately in his range. With so many hands on the villain we should be able to say something about his postflop tendancies which in turn would allow us to narrow his range. Does he ever raise postflop with less than the nuts?

As the others have mentioned. We are at the bottom end of the straight. We can't improve on latter streets, but most of the hands in the villains' ranges can improve. Your 3b looks super strong yet everyone stays in the hand.

I messed around with ranges in Pokerstove and ended with the following:
UTG (33% equity) 99, 1010, JJ, QQ, QJ, KQ and AQ
CO (56% equity) 99, 1010, JJ, Q8 and KQ
Hero (10% equity)

If we give the CO a wider range, for example the same as utg then they have 35% each and you have29% equity. You need to pay your remaining $11.65 to win a pot of $40 which gives you 29% pot odds. Thus, with the ranges I put the CO on, you are breaking even at best, but more likely to be losing money by calling.

Imo, it all boils down to what range we put the CO on. I could see a calling station calling on the flop with a very wide range of hands, but he didn't call, he raises. How often has he raised postflop?

I would fold here and wait for a better spot. You have a strong hand, but it is not the nuts.

PS: I hope you made notes on these two after seeing the showdown.

well with 20 20 hindsight I should have probably given the co more credit being that his post flop aggression is 22% and raise flop cbet also very low. I was playing without a HUD which I actually do most of the time and was using my own observations. Based on that I would give him a much wider range say add in jt, 9t, j9, jq, qt. Also I only put utg on sets and qk.

I thought about folding for a long time but ended up making the crying call and utg had qk and the co had q8. This was when a reg at the table said that folding would be terrible, but I thought I should have made the fold
 
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Tue May 13, 2014, 01:55 PM
(#14)
r0o_'s Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 6
how much difference do you think it will make if I have bdfd and theres also a fd on the flop - say 9h ts js. So the two villains can have fd's or combos, and I gain a tiny bit more equity from backdoor hearts?
 
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Tue May 13, 2014, 02:22 PM
(#15)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
Not sure about that roo_, but I would say for sure that you shouldn't be listening to a reg at any ms limit. There's a reason we're not playing higher stakes!

Looking at the hand without reads it's an easy fold for me if I think about it. It's not even close. The only thing that could distort that is if I knew utg is capable of shoving pairs and s.draws here, and ALSO that the passive player could do the same.
 
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Wed May 14, 2014, 10:58 AM
(#16)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
The reg who thinks folding would be "terrible" is probably pretty bad. There's very little chance we are winning in this scenario, imo.


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