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Can I make this call?

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Can I make this call? - Tue May 13, 2014, 10:51 AM
(#1)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
It is MTOPS Event #1 $3.30, 5 mins turbo, 5000 starting stack. Multi-Day, multi-entry tournament.

But even though it's multiple entries and so many Day 1's, that shouldn't affect our decisions. Doesn't mean we should be gambling more or making marginal calls if we can re-enter.

Can I call this with 31BB if not then what do I need minimum to make the call here?

Total 4 players behind me yet to act including 1 limper who will most likely fold.

Full Tilt Poker Game #34226467755: MTOPS Event #1 (Day 1c) (266269377), Table 7 - NL Hold'em - 60/120 Ante 15 - 20:08:16 IST - 2014/05/13 [10:38:16 ET - 2014/05/13]
Seat 1: chickface (15,026)
Seat 2: dramatix (5,277)
Seat 3: gjlehfy (3,850)
Seat 4: giorgau (4,670)
Seat 5: FCC Rules (7,914)
Seat 6: Frommelz (5,120)
Seat 7: adikumar2010 (3,684)
Seat 8: Ivan Dontsov (4,861)
Seat 9: AA_Its_Nuts (10,354)
chickface antes 15
dramatix antes 15
gjlehfy antes 15
giorgau antes 15
FCC Rules antes 15
Frommelz antes 15
adikumar2010 antes 15
Ivan Dontsov antes 15
AA_Its_Nuts antes 15
AA_Its_Nuts posts the small blind of 60
chickface posts the big blind of 120
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to adikumar2010 [Td Tc]
dramatix folds
gjlehfy calls 120
giorgau raises to 4,655, and is all in
FCC Rules folds
Frommelz folds
adikumar2010 has 15 seconds left to act
adikumar2010 has requested TIME
adikumar2010 - ??

STATS :

Last edited by adikumar2010; Tue May 13, 2014 at 10:55 AM..
 
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Tue May 13, 2014, 01:12 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi adikumar2010!

Holding TT, I get a limp from UTG+1, then a shove from the next player. When it folds to me, I need to decide whether to call or fold.
The opp is raising 13%, so I now go to pokerstove to see how my hand fares against this range. Against this range, I'm a 55% favorite.
The opps, minus the limper, are all tight, so they are most likely going to fold unless they have a monster, so they will most likely not be in the pot.
If the limper calls, when I add their range into pokerstove, my hand still has 41% equity.

Now, I have to compare this to my pot equity. If it's only me and the initial shover, I need to put 3669 into a pot that will be 7773 (47.2%). With my hand being worth 55%, this is an easy call if I'm in this scenario.

If both are in the hand, I need to put 3669 into a pot that will be 11322 (32.4%). Since my hand is worth 41% in this scenario.. it's an easy call too.

Yes, there will be a very small % of the time that one of the tight players wake up with a monster, but it will not make calling here a -EV play, as both of these scenarios are very high +EV plays.

Due to this... I'm calling!

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Tue May 13, 2014, 02:01 PM
(#3)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
So even if the guy who went all-in has AK AQ, I should be flipping happily for 31BB ? Coz I think he might have TT JJ, AJ AQ AK. And 66-99 which I totally crush.

But most likely he will have to over cards, is it normal to flip for 31BB and not wait for better spot where we have somewhat more then 60% equity going all-in preflop.
 
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Tue May 13, 2014, 04:03 PM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
When playing a tourney, I need to look for +EV spots and to find these, I need to take the opp's entire range into play, not just look for certain hands.

When I find these +EV spots, I need to be willing to play the hands... which is why bankroll management (100 buy-ins) is needed in my roll.

Most spots that I'll find in tourneys will be low +EV spots, this one, however, is a huge +EV spot (+8-9% EV).

It's not that I'm looking for flips.. I'm looking for spots where I expect to gain chips (+EV).

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 

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