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10NL ZOOM - #squeezinitup Bet/Fold OTF?

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10NL ZOOM - #squeezinitup Bet/Fold OTF? - Wed May 14, 2014, 01:44 PM
(#1)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
I thought this was a standard BET/CALL spot when I played this hand... Maybe this is BET/FOLD due to the fact that we don't have the Ace of clubs? Please comment.

MP: 21/14/1.6 - 161 hands
BU: 21/12/1.5 - 229 hands
I don't have enough PostF samples to give anymore information.

BB: unknown

 
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Wed May 14, 2014, 02:00 PM
(#2)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
Think we're getting 2.5/1 on the call here. Versus a range of sets, jacks with j/clubs, some made flushes, and even the lone a clubs with no pair we're like 25%.

This is a fold imo. If we include some spazz with 10x it's different. This guy seems pretty passive, don't think he raises lone A clubs here. Like you said we've no blockers either. Also I didn't include nut flushes in his range to come to 25% equity, as I think villain should flat the cbet with it mostly. If we do include it obviously equity is even worse.
 
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Wed May 14, 2014, 04:54 PM
(#3)
rkleefstra's Avatar
Since: Feb 2013
Posts: 2,328
Without the blocker A, I would fold it with a big sigh....

I think we will see a lot of toppair + high club , overpairs + club, sets and made low/medium flushes here.
We are beat or have bad equity against all, imo
 
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Wed May 14, 2014, 07:40 PM
(#4)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
I'm calling here.

We need about 29% equity to break even. I think there's a relatively wide range of hands that villain might do this with. You can see the range I came up with below. Villain doesn't 3Bet much so I've left in half the combos of AK with Ac and I'm only assuming he's shoving smaller overpairs with the flush draw, his shoving range may in fact be much wider. In this range I've also included some suited connectors and 44/22 which I'm not sure will play like this.

Board: Tc4c2c
Equity Win Tie
UTG 36.05% 35.33% 0.71% { AdAs }
UTG+1 63.95% 63.24% 0.71% { TT, 44, 22, QdQc, QhQc, QsQc, JdJc, JhJc, JsJc, AcKc, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, QcJc, AcTc, 9c8c, 8c7c, AcKd, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AcJd, AcJh, AcJs, AcTd, AcTh, AcTs, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs }

As you can see, we're comfortably getting enough equity against this range for a profitable call. Furthermore I think that this range is one of the worse ones we might be up against, e.g. he might shove some non-club overpairs and he might not have 44/22 and suited connectors in his range.
 
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Wed May 14, 2014, 08:03 PM
(#5)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Ok, sweet thanks Andy! I called in this spot. Villain did show up here with TT. It's a standard calling spot for me but I just wanted to make sure that I'm not making a massive mistake here.
 
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Thu May 15, 2014, 03:21 AM
(#6)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
Wow I was way off on my range perception here. Need to work on that.
 
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Fri May 16, 2014, 02:14 AM
(#7)
shoim's Avatar
Since: Jun 2013
Posts: 180
Hey All

In these spots (I recently started grinding from 2NL > 5NL), whenever it comes to me in a multi-way pot I found myself doing the same thing pre-flop - 3betting small ! And even with a premium hand like yours, can't get rid of draws (well obvious for 2NL <> 5NL) post-flop, draws that do make it on the river !, and more than that, this happens : they get lucky right there on the flop! So, what I found to be a leak in my game in these spots is my decision pre-flop - and in this cases I'd rather prefer to : 1. either directly shove ! or 2. make a bet so large that, if paid, will make me shove the flop regardless of what comes.

This, in my opinion, has the benefit of isolation - as the fancy aces don't stand big heat in a multiway but, by God, they are the nemesis of heads up, but also protects my pre-flop EV which I hate to see getting wasted on a flop like yours, where you might be, at best, flipping, most of the time.

It might look aggressive and stupid, but I found through my hand history and studying (reading - vids etc) that, on the infamous long run , it's profitable (micro-stakes wise at least).

Just my 2 cents, I know it was a question on flop play and might seem off-topic.

Regards,
Shoim

PS : looking at the stats of villains - they seem pretty passive preflop, so, denying a flop or making them pay for hands like 88+ AJs+ AQo+, that might just be getting it in on your shove just because they are 5% hands (which does happen often) adds more value to your shove (or extreme over 3bet).

Last edited by shoim; Fri May 16, 2014 at 02:30 AM..
 
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Fri May 16, 2014, 07:34 AM
(#8)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Thanks for your comments Shoim!

Quote:
Originally Posted by shoim View Post

In these spots (I recently started grinding from 2NL > 5NL), whenever it comes to me in a multi-way pot I found myself doing the same thing pre-flop - 3betting small !
When you squeeze, you should pick your spots and sizings based on what types of villains you think you're up against. If you have loose-passive calling stations, I likely wouldn't squeeze light and would make my squeeze sizes bigger, but just have a wider value range.

If the villains are a bit tighter when it comes to playing 3Bet pots, you can squeeze a narrower value range but also exploit their folding tendencies to also throw in some squeeze bluffs to pick up the dead money.

Quote:
Originally Posted by shoim View Post
And even with a premium hand like yours, can't get rid of draws (well obvious for 2NL <> 5NL) post-flop, draws that do make it on the river !, and more than that, this happens : they get lucky right there on the flop!
We have AA, it's the nuts preflop, we don't want villains to fold. But we do want to try build a pot and make them pay a reasonable price to try outdraw us.

Yes occasionally they'll outflop us, but in the long run you'll make far more money by keeping villains in the hand with a weaker range than ours. Also, don't get too attached to your AA when your opponent is giving strong signals that he likes his hand.

Quote:
Originally Posted by shoim View Post
So, what I found to be a leak in my game in these spots is my decision pre-flop - and in this cases I'd rather prefer to : 1. either directly shove ! or 2. make a bet so large that, if paid, will make me shove the flop regardless of what comes.
It's important to keep sizings consistent, otherwise you'll be extremely easy to read. Presumably you're only wanting to take this line when you have AA preflop. If this is the case, people can auto-fold KK preflop when you 3-Bet shove for 100BB or make it really large. This also makes your range for squeezing a "normal" size much weaker. Admittedly these factors might not be exploited at 2NL/5NL, but I think learning to play poker the right way is much more beneficial in the long term as you move up.

Quote:
Originally Posted by shoim View Post
This, in my opinion, has the benefit of isolation - as the fancy aces don't stand big heat in a multiway but, by God, they are the nemesis of heads up, but also protects my pre-flop EV which I hate to see getting wasted on a flop like yours, where you might be, at best, flipping, most of the time.
Sure there are scary flops like this, but AA plays extremely well on most flops, and we can often get value from worse hands as well.
 
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Fri May 16, 2014, 03:47 PM
(#9)
shoim's Avatar
Since: Jun 2013
Posts: 180
Hey Spand,

Ty for your input on my comments, actually I find this hand of "dirt eh" very standard for a tough spot, specially at the micros !
In my mind several factors come to mind :
1. Hero has the nuts pre-flop
2. But he is OOP
3. He has 2 villains loose and passive enough to make it incredible hard to guess their actions. (TBH, at 10NL I don't see many villains, specially with the stats at hand, folding KK).

Disclaimer : the following text is by no means instructional, rather questionable, with the purpose of learning. (and yes, no pets were harmed )

Good,
So Vil5 open raises 3BB, BU flats, as expected (but not recommended I guess given position) . Pot : 0.75
Hero bets 1.3 => pot 2$
Ehh, now it gets tricky, because BB, which resembles our friend in BU, finds it hard to pass on < 2:1 pot odds to call (fact, he could fold ofc, but still finds it hard to do it - med suited connectors come to mind quickly and a fit or fold strategy in his mind on the flop for which he only pays the 1,2$ he doesn't care about anyway)
Oook. From now on is just a question of how many flat's we get, as the person that flats makes it more intriguing for the next guy to flat. The more, the less happy we start to be, all we can hope is a raise, so that we can have a word in this.

I will not go into ranges right here, but given the pot odds our BU friend gets, regardless if Vil 5 folds, might grant, given his position and stats, a call with 7h3c.
If we ignore, or rather assume we can isolate him (BU) on the flop (assuming Vil3 faints on that flop and sits out) the funny thing happens.
AA vs 73o pre-flop = 87% vs 13%
AsAd vs 7h3c on 4cTc2c = 63% vs 37%
Which is ... not good, IMHO. The BU triples up on odds by just playing he's passive play and paying 1$ while we are there, dangling in the wind, guessing not only what 1 villain would do or have, but two of them because we are the first to act.

One more fact : if we are against a flush draw, our nemesis here, we only have 1 turn out, and a river luck charm - Ac we don't want,or at least not unless the board pairs on the turn IF we get the chance to pay for it!

So, what about applying a more non-exploitive line.
You said that shoving is not recommended, we give out reads - K's might actually fold - true, I am sure this is true.
You also said, that keeping the standard squeeze bet will be ok, but this 'standard' or 4x the original raise + perhaps,the blinds bet applies to 3bet vs 1 villain.
Now, after all this non-sense of mine, comes the question :
- In this, particular instance, where we are OOP, holding the pre-flop nuts wouldn't be ok to 3b squeze with a rule of : 5x original raise + additional calls(1) + the blinds ?

Making it a raise of 1.95 (and if we throw in an additional 0.15c just because we have AA) => 2.1 bet
Well, I think, that if called like this, our decision on the flop is much easier.

Well, again, Shoim and his ideas

Regards

Last edited by shoim; Fri May 16, 2014 at 05:21 PM..
 

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