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The BB Re-Steal C-Bet

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The BB Re-Steal C-Bet - Thu May 15, 2014, 03:36 AM
(#1)
baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
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You have a player who hasn't shown himself to be very tight raising the button.

You have in the BB and go for a re-steal against him.

If he folds, great
If he calls, thats the question

Ideally you want to have something floppable here but as you typically aren't planning on calling a re-raise, the cards typically shouldn't matter here.

You won't have position so are first to act.
Do you C-bet?

In my experience a c-bet move seems to work a lot of the time if I c-bet regardless of cards. If an Ace comes, we are representing that and either acting against our opponent having a weaker Ace or no Ace. If an Ace doesn't come then we are representing we have a good pair and relying on him having Ax or something that didn't pair on the flop.

I am not concerned with the re-raise move itself, happy to raise at blind stealers.. its the bit that comes after they call my raise that I am qualifying.


If they raise x2 and we re-raise x2 then the pot is 8.5BB when we get to the flop. To C-bet, I need to do so 4BB for my bluff to be believable. Since I am considering my preflop re-steal standard, I am not counting any of that investment as part of my play here, all of the information needs to be judged post-flop.

So I am betting 4BB to win 8.5BB.
I only need to win 32% of the time to break even, so by winning 33% of the time (or 1/3) then I am in profit.

Since my opponent is hitting the flop only 1/3 of the time, this means that without assuming my player will bluff at me and folds if they miss, I am winning 66% of the time and for every $1 i make with this play, I earn $3.25 in profit!


Would anyone argue that C-betting regardless here is profitable?
 
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Thu May 15, 2014, 12:28 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,802
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Hi baud2death!

It's a little more complicated than that.

You need to add in for when the opp calls, what % each player wins (based on their range). Also to take into account bets on the following streets at what % each player will win for each of those.

For c-betting, it will depend on what the board is and what type of opp I'm against.... it depends. It can be profitable, it can be a very high loss play.. but depends on the table dynamics.

John (JWK24)


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Thu May 15, 2014, 02:01 PM
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baud2death's Avatar
Since: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,249
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Thanks
This play is designed to be a 1 barrel, so regardless of if the opponent raises or calls, we aren't looking at developing past a check/fold on further streets

So the only variable is the likelihood that we will get folds as that is our goal.

My premise was conducted on the idea that an opponent will ALWAYS fold.
This is unrealistic however even if we said that 1/2 of the time when an opponent has nothing they will still give us action, our numbers are still +EV

I mainly wanted to discuss if anyone had used this play often, what the thoughts were on it and considering the massive value tied to it, how much merit there is in ever folding based on the return you get vs the times when you would just have only acted when you hit 1/3 of the time.
 
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Thu May 15, 2014, 03:31 PM
(#4)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,324
Generally speaking, you should be c-betting more often in 3-bet pots than single-raised pots, partly because your range is typically stronger. That said, it really depends on many factors, including your actual hand, stacksizes, board texture and reads/stats.

I'm not keen on being 1-and-done in 3-bet pots by the way. Since villain's range is also pretty strong (he called a 3-bet after all), and the pot is so big, he's less likely to fold to a single barrel. If I have a hand that isn't strong enough to fire multiple streets, I usually won't even fire the first bullet. With some hands like a weak top pair, I like check-calling, and with others (like combo draws) I actually prefer check-raising, to be honest.


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