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SCOOP 32-L $27 Turbo - Bubble Play

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SCOOP 32-L $27 Turbo - Bubble Play - Thu May 15, 2014, 08:15 PM
(#1)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
We're about 150 players shy of the bubble in this SCOOP turbo event. However players are dropping like flies so I anticipated that the bubble would burst within the next few hands and I was comfortably placed around the average, well above the danger zone.

Villain had only recently arrived at the table but had not done anything in his first seven hands.



If we were far from the bubble or already in the money, I would feel pretty comfortable in re-shoving all in to try and isolate this shorty who I assume would be reasonably wide.

However in this instance, while not being afraid of busting before the bubble to try and accumulate chips, I was aware that perhaps I should pass up on marginal situations as reaching the money is a pretty significant ladder-up.

I felt like villain should be relatively strong to be shoving at this stage as he could probably fold into the money if he wished. There are also still quite a few to act behind me who could have woken up with a monster.

Taking all this into account, I decided to fold. Is this my best play for my tourney EV?
 
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Thu May 15, 2014, 11:29 PM
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TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Hi Andy,

I think your analysis is pretty much spot on.

It does seem a little unclear how much bubble consideration the villain may have... he may look at the lobby and see 150 to go and may not realize it will be as fast as you do.

That being said, I think we have every reason to believe the shoving villain will be stronger than normal on average here. The fact that he is likely to realize he can fold into the money. His position at the table. His lack of activity in his first 7 hands, which included later positions. And the fact that he's shoving into 3 big stacks that can snap him off without batting an eye. I would expect this shoving range to be very value heavy, and ATo doesn't play well against such a range. While we could survive him and still limp into the money if we get it in here and lose, we still have those 4 other players to get through as well who all cover us, so we also have to weigh in the risk of running into a big hand there too.

On balance this situation doesn't look too good to me, I prefer to pass.


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Last edited by TheLangolier; Thu May 15, 2014 at 11:32 PM..
 
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Fri May 16, 2014, 07:56 AM
(#3)
spand42's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,496
Thanks Dave,

Judging by what you are saying, if you were V8 in the BB and had ATo and it was folded round to you after V3 shoved, do you still think that he should fold due to the position that V3 shoved from?
 
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Fri May 16, 2014, 10:16 AM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Yeah, it's much closer, but with the info at hand I would begrudgingly make a tight fold.


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