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Where did I go wrong !

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Where did I go wrong ! - Fri May 16, 2014, 02:02 PM
(#1)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
It's SCOOP-37-L $27 [1R1A], 15mins blind level slow structure.

Should I have 5-bet him preflop. If not there where did I made mistake on flop, turn & river. Plz review my whole hand street by street.

If I can't 5-bet then I can't fold to a min 4-bet raise for sure with position.

* I think he had AA or KK.

By making a river shove I am sure I didn't make him to fold better hand as no Q,K,A flush will fold there. I can at best make a straight fold which beats me for that he needs to have QQ.

Rest I beat his AA, KK, 88, 99, TT.

But should I really shove that river. Coz he might call me with his AA, KK, TT, 99, 88 and I will get more chips. But he will not fold better hands for sure like any flush. Only straight I can see him folding which is QQ.

But my river shove might make him not fold his set or AA, KK, which will give me more chips.

Wow!! this is really close decision and I am super-confused on the river to go for value or to check back as QQ and any flush beat me.

If he has AA KK QQ TT, these are the only hands that fits his range coz if he had A, K, Q of clubs (AxKc, AcKx, AxQc) he will usually not check river and count on me to make the bluff. I beat 3 hands and might make QQ fold (non clubs) as the board is one card to flush.





STATS :

Last edited by adikumar2010; Fri May 16, 2014 at 02:08 PM..
 
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Sat May 17, 2014, 09:58 AM
(#2)
ChewMe1's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 574
Hi adikumar2010

If villain was tight then I would elect to fold preflop even though we're getting a good price. However we have 37 hands on this guy and he has a high 3bet percentage of 15% so I don't mind calling but I'm not thrilled about the situation. When we call I would elect to continue cautiously and possibly stack off on boards that are good for us.

Calling the c-bet is fine, there's an argument to be made about shoving all in but I like to just call. It can reduce our variance. For example if we call and the turn card is A/K/Q we can put the brakes on.

Turn card isn't bad for us. It gives us an open ender as well as an overpair but we don't have the Jc for reassurance so if we're going to continue with the hand I would elect to either shove or fold now and I would elect to shove. Villains bet sizing is weak ( whether or not he's enticing us to continue with the hand I don't know, but we ought to be able to work out if he's smart enough to do that based on how he's been playing up until this point ).

Shoving the river is horrible!! Yuck!!!! I don't see any merit to it whatsoever. Are you hoping that he hero calls you with KK/AA no club? That would be an extremely speculative call that I wouldn't expect 99% of players to make. You have plenty of showdown value and I expect you to have the best hand more often than not. The only hands you're going to get to fold that beat you are AQ/QQ/QK/7x, and only two of these hands fit into villains 4betting range ( AQ/QQ ) and most players wouldn't even 4bet the AQ.

I would happily check it back, win the pot, and see what villain is 4betting us with rather than risk our tournament life on a bluff, because essentially that's what you're doing, you're bluffing, and you're bluffing with the best hand more often than not.

Cheers, Chris.

Last edited by ChewMe1; Sun May 18, 2014 at 07:25 AM..
 
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Sat May 17, 2014, 10:31 AM
(#3)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
Turn I couldn't fold as I was getting good price to draw to straight and if I shove turn I am sure he is not going to fold 99, TT or AA, KK which means I am at risk (lets assume he has AA KK). So I will be counting on the river card to help me give me a set or straight. He is never folding AA KK maybe only if he doesnt have club.

Chances of people laying down AA KK is best on river then turn and they never fold on flop AA as we know. So even if we want to bluff him on turn I think it might not work, as if he has AA KK with one club, he will snap call with overpair and back-up of flush incase I have him beat on turn somehow.

You are right his turn size was weak like a blocker bet as he got afraid of flush, and maybe we can shove there and make him fold AA KK, but not if he has AA KK with one club (last thing we can say that he could be enticing us to shove with his weak bet if his AcKc turned nut flush, which is little less liklely as I put him on AA KK)

Yuck!!! on me on river I agree, but I thought we can maybe make him laydown a non club queen as bluff and also we can maybe make him hero call us with his AA KK TT. But on river chances are 80% I am ahead so why should I lose value with my set to see his cards. Why not extract more value, some players can't fold AA KK even on river no matter what the board is.

Do you think he is checking better hand then us like nut flush and counting on us to shove river?

Is that a wrong thought process?

Last edited by adikumar2010; Sat May 17, 2014 at 11:11 AM..
 
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Sun May 18, 2014, 06:13 PM
(#4)
ChewMe1's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 574
This spot is rather difficult because you're both very deep but I don't like calling on the turn. There's too many horrible river cards for us and we're only going to be left with half a pot sized bet. What do you do if the river card is a brick like 2h. Do you fold? If the answer is no then we ought to be shoving the turn.

I think most villains will play rather straight forwardly and bet out their strong flushes but maybe he's trapping, who knows for sure.

You can't extract any value on the river because your hand just isn't strong enough. You will be hero called with an overpair no club maybe 5% of the time? 10% at an absolute push. So yes I do think that your thought process is a bit off but this is a rather unique hand and I'm sure peoples opinions will vary on the situation.

Cheers, Chris.

Last edited by ChewMe1; Sun May 18, 2014 at 06:16 PM..
 
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Sun May 18, 2014, 06:32 PM
(#5)
adikumar2010's Avatar
Since: Mar 2011
Posts: 1,094
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChewMe1 View Post
What do you do if the river card is a brick like 2h. Do you fold? If the answer is no then we ought to be shoving the turn.
If the river was a rag, I was ready to check-check or fold to his bet. Coz I put him on AA KK only which most people can't let it go. So if he checks to me on a blank river, I will not go-all and try to rep flush, coz no matter what they put me on they will make a crying call with it.

Last edited by adikumar2010; Sun May 18, 2014 at 06:37 PM..
 

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