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HELP! 25NL sessions

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HELP! 25NL sessions - Fri May 16, 2014, 06:27 PM
(#1)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
This is how my sessions have been going lately. Can someone explain what's happening here? Does this graph show why I'm leaking money or is there a report that I can look at to figure out what's happening?

I'll win 1 big pot then I leak money until I win another BIG POT, then I lead money. One BIG probleme here is that when I'm leaking money... and then I'm losing or getting sucked out on in the big pots then I'm going from a break even session to a massive losing session.

Thanks!

 
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Fri May 16, 2014, 06:41 PM
(#2)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,355
Totally standard graph for a typical ABC/TAG.

I'm playing a bit more loosely these days, so my redline is a bit flatter than it used to be, but I often only play about 1 big pot (over 100bb) every 150 hands or so. Without opening up the tracker to check, I'd estimate that I'm only all in about once every 220 hands. Winning that one big pot can make it a very profitable session. Losing it is a nightmare, as it takes 1000 hands (at 10bb/100) to regain a lost buyin. That's why poker is such a grind. You rarely win several big pots in a short period, and have to grind it out steadily.


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Fri May 16, 2014, 06:45 PM
(#3)
Paddy Gar's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 439
Not too sure Dirt but I think that's one of the pitfalls of zoom. How many tables do you run? If it's more than 2 zoom tables the little losses add up super quick.

I'd look at 10-35bb pots in your database from recent sessions just to see if there's anything sticking out though. C/folding too often, cbetting good board textures for your opponents perceived range etc.

You're undoubtedly getting floated more at 25nl too, I guess a 25nl player would be better able to help here. Just my thoughts.
 
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Fri May 16, 2014, 07:06 PM
(#4)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
I'll look at my 10-35bb pots... I know that I'm losing a ton of those. I'm definitely not playing ABC/TAG but I think my gap between VPIP and PFR is too large now for 25nl. I find that 25nl zoom is WAAAAY more aggressive than 10nl so I think I might need to tighten up the "gap" in order to have initiative throughout the hands.

Here' are my stats so far for 25nl ZOOM (16,140 hands)
VPIP: 27, PFR: 22, 3B: 8, AF: 2.2
Steal Pct: 52.2, Overall Steal Success: 49.3
 
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Fri May 16, 2014, 08:07 PM
(#5)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Hey dirt,

You can take a look at this thread to give you an idea on stats
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...Statistic-blog

You can also read my journey from 10NL to 200NL
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...777-2012-goals
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...goals-for-2013

It's not because you play Zoom. I only played Zoom cash with 4 tables and didn't have any problems. I personally think your VPIP, PFR and 3Bet are way to high (especially your PFR and 3Bet)

Hope things get better
GL
 
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Sat May 17, 2014, 12:15 AM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hey dirt,

Your graph does look ABC TAG. While your preflop stats aren't very TAG, and you may not feel like you're playing ABC TAG, you may be getting a similar graph to one because, like Trap said, you're playing too many hands. So what may be happening is you're seeding your preflop ranges with too many weak hands, which is resulting in a weaker distribution post flop and forcing you into a lot more spots you have to give up or can't contest profitably.

Just as a comparison, I have played about 10K hands at 25NL 6-max so far this month... my stats are:

VPIP: 18.05
PFR: 14.59
3B: 6.8
3B vs. BU: 14.43
AF: 3.2

And the graph looks like this:







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Sat May 17, 2014, 01:54 AM
(#7)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Thanks Everyone! Dave, why soooo nitty? Just kidding. I actually fixed my problem... For some reason I forgot about a little thing called POT CONTROL! hahaha. Profits are going back up like they were before!

I was playing a 21/19 style last year. I've migrated it all the way up to 27/22 and the bb/100 is going up. I could easily go back down to a lessor VPIP but it's just not as fun!

Last edited by dirt eh; Sat May 17, 2014 at 02:09 AM..
 
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Sat May 17, 2014, 11:15 AM
(#8)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Dave nitty....LOL

My 25NL Zoom stats for 205,000 hands are:
VPIP: 16.88
PFR: 12.86
3Bet: 6.99
AF: 2.05

Yes your VPIP are a bit high, but it's mainly the rest that are out of wack

I looked at my database on PT4
Players I have played against with over 3,000 hands
Top winning regulars stats vary between:
VPIP: 13:34 - 18.12
PFR: 11.67 - 15.80
3Bet: 3.23 - 7.31
AF: 1.86 - 2.58
 
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Sat May 17, 2014, 11:38 AM
(#9)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
^ Considering both Dave and Sandtrap have such a significant post flop edge on the player pool, playing that tight is pretty bad game theory wise.

You want to maximize your exposure to profitable opportunities, which means being in more marginal situations.
 
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Sat May 17, 2014, 12:26 PM
(#10)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
The theory part is true, you need it to learn how to play, but at one point you need to adjust at different levels and I would say, most of the theory goes out the window and that's because you're playing against known players.
If everybody was to play with only the theory, nobody would win.

Birdayy, I've seen lots of hands you've posted and I would say that the majority of them I would of folded. If it works for you great, can't wait to see you at 200NL

Good Luck
 
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Sat May 17, 2014, 12:34 PM
(#11)
mike2198's Avatar
Since: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,485
Quote:
Originally Posted by birdayy View Post
^ Considering both Dave and Sandtrap have such a significant post flop edge on the player pool, playing that tight is pretty bad game theory wise.

You want to maximize your exposure to profitable opportunities, which means being in more marginal situations.
True but surely opening wider ranges EP vs unknown players and flatting to many hands is bad unless you know exactly how your going to exploit that player. Just like flatting 9Ts on BU vs any player that 3b from the blinds is bad, you cant flat to smash the board you would be flatting to make a play on which ever street you think you can take the pot away on.
 
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Sat May 17, 2014, 01:26 PM
(#12)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
Thanks Sand. Played a little at 100nl this week so maybe by then end of the year we'll be battling at 200nl.

@mike, most of regulars VPIP come in later positions. Some mid stakes guys open over 60% on the button. That has a significant effect on stats.

For example, an 18/16 may open 10/13/20/30/25 via position, whilst a 26/21 may open 12/17/28/60/45. Most of the change in numbers is in later position.

An important thing to remember is that you don't need to win money playing a hand. All you need to do is loose less than if you folded.

A common example of this is in the big blind vs a button steal. You will have a wide, weak range that will have to check/fold a tonne of flops.

However, if you are loosing at a rate that's less than if you just folded getting 3:1, then it's going to be more profitable (or less loosing lol) calling pre.
 
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Sat May 17, 2014, 01:40 PM
(#13)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,355
Quote:
Originally Posted by birdayy View Post
Some mid stakes guys open over 60% on the button. That has a significant effect on stats.
And profit too.
FWIW, I think it's a mistake to open quite that wide in general. It opens you up to being exploited by the "3-bet ATC defenders", unless you really want to play 3b pots with 74s and A9o.
I'd rather reduce the variance (and probably increase winrate and dollars/hour in zoom formats) by folding more often and only opening about 45% of buttons, except where the blinds are obviously exploitable nits.


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Sat May 17, 2014, 01:52 PM
(#14)
birdayy's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,179
I think at lower stakes (5nl, 10nl) there is an argument for opening even wider because nobody (except fish ironically) defend enough to not making ATC profitable.

I don't think people realize how much you need to do defend vs a min raise to not make ATC an auto-profit.
 
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Sat May 17, 2014, 03:40 PM
(#15)
ArtySmokesPS's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 7,355
On that, I agree. I've been increasing my 3-bet percentage for the same reason: Reg/villains don't defend against them often enough. I'm just not keen in putting myself in really tricky spots (high variance), when I can fast-fold and instantly move on to a hand with a higher EV.

Going back to the VPIP/PFR stats mentioned above, it's pretty clear that you can win as both a LAG or a nit, or somewhere in between. There are winners at all stakes of 6max with a VPIP below 15% or over 25%. It's probably harder to make money if your VPIP is significantly higher or lower than those arbitrary numbers in the long run, but there are exceptions to every "rule". We can't really say for sure that 27/22 is too loose or 17/13 is too tight, as both can be very profitable in the right circumstances. Most players are so far from optimal that you can sometimes maximise your profit by playing like a maniac on one table while being an ubernit on another.


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Sun May 18, 2014, 10:11 PM
(#16)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Hey dirt,

VPIP: 18.05
PFR: 14.59
3B: 6.8
3B vs. BU: 14.43
AF: 3.2
This 3B stat is your 3b vs. button only or is this 3b vs. steal? and is this from from sb and bb combined?
 
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Mon May 19, 2014, 10:21 AM
(#17)
MrFlopes's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 152
pls delete this. sorry.

Last edited by MrFlopes; Mon May 19, 2014 at 10:54 AM..
 
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Mon May 19, 2014, 10:56 AM
(#18)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
@dirt, it's 3b vs. button opens only, which I added for my HUD as a general representation of whether a villain attacks steal position opens or does not adjust to steal opens.

@MrFlopes, 6-max (I said that in my post )

@birdayy, In theory, one would think. I recently did a bit of a retooling of my game however... I was for the last 100K hands or so playing more like dirt's stats, but I wasn't getting results I was satisfied with. Maybe my post flop edge isn't as big as I thought (probably true, we all tend to overestimate our own ability + underestimate our opponents). Maybe I was getting to the turn/river with too wide a distribution vs. villains who don't roll over, preventing me from betting and calling at appropriate frequencies and forcing me to fold too much (definitely true), or have too many weaker hands in my showdown ranges which were killing my blue line (definitely true). So in short I've put more thought into my range distribution getting to turns and rivers, and in order to have better frequencies there, have made some adjustments in my preflop and flop ranges accordingly. With no consideration to stats at all. This is just the (so far) end result of the stats. My VPIP/PFR/3B/3BvBU have all come down from what they were before, and although they seem tight for 6-max, thus far I'm not concerned about it since my red line hasn't suffered and my blue line has skyrocketed. 10K hands is a tiny sample obv, but I feel like it's not a fluke. I am still including marginal/speculative hands in my preflop ranges, but I am doing so more judiciously and picking better spots as well I think.

I plan to play 25nl for the rest of May, I'll come back here with the final results and we'll see how it looks.


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Mon Jun 02, 2014, 04:27 PM
(#19)
dirt eh's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,274
Dave! Let's see the results from MAY please!
 
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Mon Jun 02, 2014, 09:42 PM
(#20)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Haha, sorry, it slipped my mind because I didn't finish the cash volume originally intended. I only played about 4K more hands... then some life circumstances got in the way of a few sessions happening, and I had 2 sessions I ran horrible, then I took a couple days off. And the last week of May I played some sngs for a promo. Anyway, here was it ended up looking like:

VPIP: 18.85
PFR: 15.13
3B: 6.87
3B vs. BU: 14.89
AF: 3.15
BB/100: 7.36



Was happy enough with the final week of sng play though




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